Since the previous update, several developments have taken place in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Below are the latest events with thoughts provided by NCF Research Officer Henry Y. Jeong:
Attacks Continue in Ukraine
On the 8th of July, the deadliest wave of airstrike in months struck Ukraine as Russian missiles damaged infrastructure, residential and commercial buildings across the country. The airstrike, killed at least 41 civilians and injured 170 others. The strikes were notable for its destruction of Okhmadyt Hospital, Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, and the Ukrainian Centre for Pediatric Cardiac Surgery, which happened under a targeted attack involving a ‘programmed route’ by a Kh-101 cruise missile. The attack on medical facilities have caused two deaths and wounded 32 others, including eight children, as at least 33 were killed in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capitol, during the attack.
For the most part, international responses to the attacks have been swift, as the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington D.C. between 9th and 11th of July brought out a major opportunity for additional measures to be rolled out. Poland has announced its plans to prepare and send its first Ukrainian legion of volunteers with soldiers made up of Ukrainians including several thousands who have already enlisted. This was followed by an additional enforcement of F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and Netherlands, who have announced that their dispatchment is underway, while Sweden has remained open to sending additional Gripens after Ukraine secures its target total of 130 F-16s. More is to be seen on if and how the aerial reinforcements, crucial for Ukraine in their defence against missile and drone attcks over the coming months, will be met.
Britain, Hungary Make Visits
In the recent week’s events, Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, whose friendliness with Putin has been particularly noticeable among heads of government in the European Union, has embarked on several ‘peace missions’. On 2nd of July, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban Viktor made his first visit to Ukraine in over a decade. After a meeting that lasted several hours, Orban said he asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider a ‘ceasefire with timed deadline’ to allow for an accelerated chance of a peace talk. He then went on to his subsequent visits to Russia on Friday and China on Monday, both reportedly under the ‘peace mission’ banner.
Orban’s visits, for the most part, have not led to a change of perception in Ukraine and the West. The Ukrainian response to the war remained unchanged with the “peace” summits, which have been backed by a majority of nations but exclude Russia, being the way to go forward. The European Union’s response was no less stout in this case, with EU foreign policy leader Josef Borrell criticising Orban for attempting to undermine the bloc-wide stance on the conflict through his unrepresentative stance. It is viewed that Orban’s decisions, which came right as Hungary took over the European Union’s presidency from Belgium for the second half of 2024, could still have a major impact, especially as the United States Presidential elections approach.
Also busy on the surface is the United Kingdom, whose stance on Ukraine has not changed amidst a governmental change that took place in the 2024 United Kingdom General Election last Friday on the 4th of July. The outgoing Conservatives have been among the most ardent supporters of Ukrainian defensive efforts in the course of the war, with Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak making regular presence in Kiev and elsewhere. It is expected that the incoming Labour government remain on course under Keir Starmer in terms of its commitment to Ukraine and NATO, a moment of shared consensus between Conservative and Labour parties.
On the 6th and 7th of July, newly-announced Foreign Secretary David Lammy made his visit to see his counterpart foreign ministers to Germany, Poland, and Sweden to drum up support and solidarity among the NATO allies with shared strategic goals in the region and the conflict. The immediate effects of this are to be seen, with the Starmer cabinet expected to place its aims in resetting its relationship with the European Union under higher priority, but expect more news to come with Starmer, Lammy, and Defense Secretary John Healy in the 2024 NATO Summit to follow on 9th to 11th of July.
Russia and North Korea become closer, placing China in an awkward spot
On 18th of June, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first visit to North Korea in 24 years, as he arrived in Pyongyang to attend the bilateral summit between Russia and one of its last, outwardly-supporting allies in North Korea. At the bilateral summit, Putin and North Korean head of state, Kim Jong-Un signed a new strategic pact that, while not exact in details, suggests their relationships be upgraded to a strategic partnership that would expand their economic cooperation and increase food and energy security.
The premise of the treaty, on the one hand, is interesting, as it does not promise anything close to a revelation on the surface, but remains open for further pragmatic development in North Korea-Russia relations. Questions exist as to whether this treaty, which will be replacing the 2000 treaty that Putin had signed with the late North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Il, will be reverting the level of protection originally offered by the USSR at the start of their 1961 treaty. On the other hand, this also raises questions as to whether there will be any major change to the relationship that has seen no change. North Korean involvement in the Russo-Ukrainian War is nothing new, whether it be the robust nature of the North Korean weapons acquisition network or their missiles and artillery’s part in the Russian pursuit of the war with Ukraine. It may also suggest the possibility of North Korean soldiers enlisted to fight for the Russians in exchange for economic return, which would not be considered anything new, though concerning and increasingly likely with the Russian war economy continuing to struggle with enlistments and weapon shortage.
In this regard, the treaty does not offer anything out of the ordinary that would be considered revolutionary in understanding the bilateral relations or the North Korean involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is likelier, however, that the impact felt by this treaty lies elsewhere, as Russian overtures towards North Korea could lead to consequences for China and East Asia as a whole. China, a longtime strategic and economic partner for both Russia and North Korea, is not in a position to welcome these developments with the possibility of Russian support in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as its possibility of risking its complicated relations with both the West, Japan and South Korea. Recent months have seen China and the European Union at odds with each other over tariffs placed on Chinese electric cars and E.U. agricultural products such as Brandy and Pork, with no sign of resolution in the near future while South Korea, which has maintained its non-interventionist stance on the war outside of sending humanitarian aid, is also considering sending arms to Ukraine as a response to the cooperation pact. While relatively little update has occurred since the summit, it is worth keeping an eye on the uncertainties out east.
Ukraine Peace Summit Concludes, Raises Additional Questions
On 15th and 16th of June, the Summit on “Peace in Ukraine” was held in Bürgenstock Resort, central Switzerland. The summit, which was originally proposed by both Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Switzerland, was set to ‘develop a common understanding of a path towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine’, with a focus on providing a platform for dialogue that is supported in the international law, a framework to reach the goals and a roadmap in which these goals can be reached. 100 participants included 57 heads of state or government from 92 nations and 8 organisations including the European Commission, United Nations, and the Council of Europe.
By the end of the two-day summit, the “Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework” was signed. While multiple items were discussed in the Summit that had its foundation upon the 2022 Ten-point Peace Proposal put together by Zelensky, the eventually announced terms of a shared vision behind the Joint Communique ended up being a much narrower one with three items agreed upon – protection of nuclear energy facilities against a possible nuclear attack, assurance of global food security through access of sea portals in Black and Azov seas, and the release and exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) and displaced Ukrainian children. Initially signed by 80 nations and 4 European organisations, the Communique would see delayed signatures and withdrawal by several nations before concluding with 84 nations and 6 organisations by the end of June.
Along the way, the Summit has seen several challenges and withdrawals that had attempted to overthrow its operations. The absence of Russia in the Summit was noticeable with the Kremlin’s stance on the “peace summit” in Switzerland, whom they regard as a non-neutral party, unchanged. This was followed by the Chinese decision not to participate in the Summit on the grounds of Russia’s absence, with Kiev’s last-minute diplomatic efforts ending up unsuccessful in the weeks leading up to the conference.
The absence of China and Russia was then followed by a subsequent proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who announced his latest ultimatum on 14th of June, the day before the “Ukraine Peace Summit”. The ultimatum had four major conditions in mind, with the most important ones being the withdrawal of Ukrainian (and in response, Russian) troops from the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, while Ukraine is to remain neutral and non-nuclear with immediate termination of all attempts at joining NATO. The conditions, which were quickly dismissed by Ukraine, US and the West, also suggest that they are brought together as a response to the increased fatigue Russian economy experiences in mix of longstanding sanctions and war economy, with the fourth condition being that all sanctions against Russia be lifted.
As for whether the Russian plan was to disrupt the peace summit or not, it is difficult to say. The summit has gained and affirmed the support from the vast majority of participating nations for a summit that had multiple challenges, but its outcome was straightforward with Russia and China’s absence. Furthermore, it had additional failures with the inability to persuade the nations of both the Global South and the Middle East to participate. There was a possible opportunity for the Summit to exploit the Chinese absence by asserting its political and diplomatic willpower to grow strategic ties with the West, and for the Middle East to serve as a reliable middle-ground partner to the conflict. It has not exactly happened with neither India nor Saudi Arabia, two of the possible candidates for mediation, signing the Communique, suggesting that there is more to be done.
The opportunity, however, remains open for a peace process. Kiev does consider Saudi Arabia a reliable partner to possibly host the peace summit involving both Russia and Ukraine in the future. The Saudis have remained cautious about stepping into the process during the summit, quickly stating that compromise is required for any summit to involve both Russia and Ukraine. More is to be seen on whether there will be progress made in coming weeks.
Image by Дмитрий Буханцов from Pixabay
