On June 2, Yemen’s warring parties agreed to renew the truce for 2 more months. Although beneficial for the country, various issues within Yemen are still in need of solutions before we can hope for a lasting political settlement that eases the suffering of its citizens.

Earlier this year, in April, Ansar Allah, the Saudi-led coalition, and the internationally recognised Yemeni government agreed on a two-month truce. Under such, they agreed to halt their military operations within Yemen. Moreover, they also agreed to ease the Saudi embargo, by allowing fuel ships to enter Hodeidah, one of the country’s main ports currently under Houthi control; and to reopen  Sanaa’s airport for commercial flights. Finally, the warring parties also convened on the reopening of roads to various cities like Taiz, Marib and al-Dahle to facilitate the transport of people, goods, services and humanitarian aid.

This truce has allowed the people of Yemen to see a glimpse of peace for the first time in 7 years. Major military operations have stopped from all sides. However, there are still occasional skirmishes along the frontlines and unexploded ordnance that keep claiming lives. Nevertheless, the truce is still a step in the right peaceful direction, as since it started, civilian casualties have been reduced by two-thirds. Moreover, during this period seven fuel ships have been cleared to enter Hodeidah, and 15 commercial round-trips between Sanaa and Amman have been completed. Nonetheless, the reopening of major roads has been characterised by disagreements between the parties. Although the truce has been held up by a thread, its renewal until August 2nd is beneficial for Yemen and its citizens who start to see a glimpse of peace in the war-torn country.

Reopening of roads

Ground blockades across the country have seriously disrupted the flow of goods into cities, heavily affecting the lives of Yemenis. Additionally, road closures have forced citizens to adopt dangerous alternative routes that include single-track mountain roads and checkpoints operated by armed groups. These disruptions are seriously affecting the lives of Yemenis. For instance, in Taiz, currently under Houthi control, the ground blockade has led to increasing food prices and the prevention of adequate distribution of humanitarian aid within Taizis.

Moreover, road closures signify that trips that used to take minutes now can take up to several hours, hindering access to basic services like healthcare. Therefore, it is not uncommon for sick citizens to die on their way to receive urgent medical care due to the disrupted accessibility. Hence, ground blockades only worsen the already acute humanitarian crisis that Yemenis are going through.

Nevertheless, despite these problems, the warring parties have not been able to agree on a pathway for the reopening of roads that eases the suffering of citizens. Last week, the UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, said that the latest UN updated proposal on a gradual reopening of Taiz’s main roads had been rejected by Ansar Allah.

The predominantly Houthi group argued that the proposal was unilaterally beneficial for the coalition as it only focused on the reopening of areas under Houthi control. Therefore, they put forward a motion that also addressed the reopening of al-Dahle and Marib, under the control of the Cabinet of Yemen, and that also hinder the lives of Yemenis. Nevertheless, such was neglected.

Therefore, Ansar Allah blames the coalition for the suffering of Taizis and states that they have an agenda in which they wish to exploit the situation in Taiz for their interests. Due to the said disagreements between the warring parties, a joint pathway that eases the suffering of Yemenis through road openings has not been adopted.

The delay in the reopening of roads is generating further problems as it is fostering discontent within the involved parties who are questioning the validity of the truce. Ansar Allah stated that an extension of such would not be feasible without an expansion of its items. Moreover, it is also irritating Yemen’s new presidential council who claims that they have granted concession after concession (Hodeidah and Sanaa) to Ansar Allah, whilst they have not fulfilled their part of their agreement (Taiz). This is dangerous as Yemeni and Saudi officials are accusing the predominantly Houthi group of exploiting the truce to restructure their forces.

Furthermore, the Southern Transitional Council, which has a shaky relationship with the Cabinet of Yemen, due to its secessionist desires, has also been assembling its own troops. Hence, if left unresolved, the existing tension surrounding the problem of ground blockades can escalate into renewed fighting and thus a solution to the problem is desperately needed.

Failed promises

Failure to agree on road reopenings has not been the only promise that has failed to be delivered. Earlier this year, Ansar Allah also came into an agreement with the UN to stop recruiting child soldiers and to identify those already in their ranks and release them. Nevertheless, aid workers, residents and Ansar Allah officials all recognise that the practice has not stopped.

The predominantly Houthi group has camps in schools and mosques where they recruit children to fight and teach their religious ideology. Ansar Allah has been able to use the humanitarian crisis to pressure parents into enlisting their kids in these camps in exchange for food rations from international organisations.

Humanitarian crisis

Prolonged fighting across Yemen has destroyed the economy and heavily debilitated the country’s infrastructure,  resulting in the worst contemporary humanitarian crisis. According to the UNHCR, 73% of the population of Yemen depends on humanitarian assistance to survive. Moreover, by the end of 2021, the UN estimated that the conflict had led to the death of 377,000 people. Of them, 60% died due to a lack of access to food, water or health care. Furthermore, a report from the International Committee of the Red Cross also emphasised this drastic situation by revealing that every 2 hours, 1 mother and 6 newborns die in Yemen due to entirely preventable circumstances that would not happen under the limited to no access to health care that many Yemenis suffer from.

Despite this worrying situation, 2 weeks ago, the World Food Programme announced further cuts to food aid in Yemen. This reduction will signify that of the 13 million people that they help, only 5 million will be supplied with 50% of their daily food requirements, whilst the remaining 8 will only get 25%. The said cut is a result of lack of funding, global inflation and the knock-on effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 42% of Yemen’s wheat comes from Ukraine, which summed to rising food prices, will push Yemenis closer to starvation. Yemenis are once again the victims, who will continue suffering.

In contrast, Ansar Allah will benefit from this announcement as one of their recruiting tactics has been the pressuring of families in exchange for food rations. Hence, the increased desperation and necessity that the cut will foster may lead families to turn towards Ansar Allah for humanitarian support, in exchange for enlisting their children into their camps. Therefore, the international community must come together and not forget about Yemen.

Tehran’s involvement

Finally, last week, in the Gulf of Oman, a UK warship seized advanced Iranian missiles bound for Yemen. To date, this is one of the strongest findings of Iran’s direct involvement in arming Ansar Allah against the Saudi-led coalition by smuggling weapons through the Persian Gulf. Although substantial, the findings will lead to worrisome escalatory rhetoric that must be avoided as they can have a negative effect on the crucial negotiations in the upcoming months.

Biden’s Jeddah visit

In the most recent Biden visit to the Saudi Arabian Kingdom, the two delegations committed to doing everything possible to find a solution to the Yemeni conflict through the extension and strengthening of the truce and ultimately translating it into a political settlement. Moreover, the White House saluted the Saudi continued financial support to the Presidential Council. In order to help improve the basic services and economic stability of Yemen, earlier this year, the Kingdom pledged to provide over $1 billion for fuel support and development projects summed to a joint Emirati and Saudi $2 billion deposit to Yemen’s Central Bank.

Therefore, despite positive recent developments in Yemen that allow its citizens to see a glimpse of peace through the renewal of the truce, the situation for its population is still very dire. The humanitarian crisis will only be worsened by the cuts to the WFP and by the global economic knock-off effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, the unresolved issue of road openings will only fuel tension between the warring parties. Hence, there are still various issues within the conflict that need addressing before we can hope for a meaningful and lasting political agreement that ultimately finalises the 7-year-long civil war.