The following report summarises the lead position of members of the Next Century Foundation’s working group on the peace settlement between Israel and Palestine, but it does not represent a consensus endorsed by all present, nor does it represent the official view of the Next Century Foundation. 

Addressing the Israel-Palestine Conflict

The purpose of this paper is to provoke further discussion on the strategies and core principles which could be embodied in a secure and final peace settlement between Israel and Palestine. Regrettably, there has been a lack of concrete progress achieved to resolve key issues in this conflict despite decades of negotiations. Nevertheless, the conflict continues to have a significant impact on the lives of many people in the region. Since 2008, 6036 Palestinians and 273 Israelis have died due to this conflict and thousands more have been injured. This shows that a ‘business as usual’ approach cannot continue. There needs to be a conscious and engaged multilateral effort to finally secure an effective peace deal in line with the two-state solution that would secure an independent state for Palestine while maintaining the state of Israel.

This paper outlines the Next Century Foundation’s recommendations with regards to resolving the following key issues in the Israel-Palestine conflict:

• Strategies of cooperation
• Land swaps
• Jerusalem
• Refugees
• Reconciliation

Strategies for Cooperation

Given the lack of progress that has been achieved thus far, enabling effective strategies of cooperation is a highly important element of the Middle East Peace Process.  The lack of local confidence in the Palestinian Authority and the divergent coalition government and upcoming elections in Israel undermines the opportunity for both sides to initiate talks on the peace settlement. Palestine has been under the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas since 2005, and the legitimacy of the Palestinian authority is undermined the lack of free and fair elections this far. The growing presence of the militant Islamic group Hamas in Palestine, as well as the ongoing conflict between Hamas and their more moderate, secular counterpart Fatah, also contributes to uncertainty about Palestine’s negotiating position. Young Palestinians are increasingly taking to social media to promote their struggles to a global audience, adding a new layer of communication and representation to the conflict. However, their opinions and efforts are largely under-represented by the current leadership of Palestine.

In order to reflect the will of Palestinians, the Next Century Foundation proposes the following principles:

1. The Palestinian Authority should hold the national elections in Palestine in the immediate future, including both presidential and parliamentary elections, and make sure they are free, fair, democratic, peaceful, and credible.
2. The international community should put pressure on the Palestinian Authority to hold these elections; concerns about Hamas winning in the West Bank should not be a deterrent.
3. The voice of Palestinian youths^[1] should be raised and recognized
4. Israel should ensure full democratic participation of Palestinians in East Jerusalem, and the issue should not be used as an excuse not to hold elections by the Palestinian Authority.
5. The international community should contribute to increasing the legitimacy of Palestine by recognizing it as a state, following the example of Sweden

Many are concerned about the possibility of Hamas winning elections. However, the position of the Next Century Foundation is that this should not be used as a deterrent against holding elections. Firstly, there is no certain guarantee that Hamas would win elections. Secondly, even if they do win elections, there is a strong possibility that being put in an official position of leadership and invited to official negotiations as a result may lead to Hamas adopting a more moderate position. Finally, it is the right of Palestinians to choose who they wish to be their leaders; neither Israel nor the wider international community should deny Palestinians their democratic rights based on fears of who might be elected.

There is also great uncertainty about Israel’s position regarding the conflict and the two-state solution. Despite coming from opposing political parties, Israel’s most recent former Prime Ministers, Naftali Bennett and Benjamin Netanyahu, both reject the two-state solution. Despite Naftali Bennett being more moderate than Benjamin Netanyahu with regards to Palestine, his coalition government has failed to achieve any significant improvement in relations. While current Prime Minister Yair Lapid is supportive of the two-state solution, there is little he can do during his short tenure as interim President to move discussions forward other than ensuring the two-state solution remains to be open as an option for peace. Elections in November 2022 which have been called due to the recent collapse of Bennett’s coalition will be key in determining the future of the Middle East Peace process. Opinion polls suggest Netanyahu’s party will emerge as the largest, which may hamper peace process efforts. Therefore, multilateral mechanisms as well as bilateral mechanisms will likely be necessary to initiate and proceed with peace talks.

Recognising the importance of multilateralism in forming a ripe context for initiating the peace talk, the Next Century Foundation suggests that:

1. Regional parties should be all welcomed in the current Abraham Accord led by the US.
2. A new Madrid Process should be initiated among Israel, Palestine, and other concerned parties, especially regional powers, such as Iran.
3. The Process should address fundamental issues that concern indigenous communities, which include, but are not limited to, settlements, Jerusalem, and refugees.

The USA has historically been perceived as the main multilateral initiator of negotiations and will likely remain acutely involved in the future. However, the current foreign policy focus of the Biden administration is supporting Ukraine against the invasion from Russia, and so the USA cannot be solely relied upon to take a lead position in future negotiations. Therefore, the involvement of countries other than the USA is particularly important for effective peace talks. Relations with Gulf Arab countries have improved during Bennett’s tenure as Prime Minister, making them key partners in the Middle East Peace Process. Spain is another country that remains engaged in the Middle East Peace Process. Therefore, the Next Century Foundation proposes that the following countries can jointly participate as interlocutors:

• The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Spain.

Land Swaps

Since the 1990s, land swaps have become part of the negotiations between Israel and Palestine. One of the main issues preventing a two-state agreement is Israel’s numerous settlements in the West Bank, a region which will be an integral part of a future Palestinian state. The concept of land swaps seeks to resolve this issue by Israel handing over areas of Israeli land to Palestine in exchange for being allowed to keep a majority of their settlements in the West Bank. However, the disagreement on the principles from both sides undermines the formation of a consensus on the land swap issue. These disagreements relate to both the amount of land that should be involved in the land swap and which land will be swapped. However, Mahmoud Abbas and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert came close to reaching a deal, emphasising the possibility of reaching a land swap agreement.

In order to fulfill Palestine’s requirements on the completion of its sovereignty, the Next Century Foundation proposes the 4-5% annexation of the West Bank to Israel. This would be an ideal compromise between the low figures, often around 2-3%, proposed by Palestine and the higher figures, sometimes 10% or above, proposed by Israel. The Next Century Foundation proposes that the following areas of the West Bank should be given to Israel:

1. Modi’in Illit, Beitar Illit, Ma’ale Adumin, Giv’at Ze’ev and East Talpiot.
2. Together with some contiguous smaller settlements in the incursion at Qalquilya^[2], which would be included in the Israel’s side of the land swap.
3. If possible, the city of Ari’el should be included in the Israel’s area.^[3]
4. The controversial settlement at Hebron would be excluded, together with all other settlements outside of the 4-5% area of the land-swap.^[4]

Appendices A and B show that these conditions allow Israel to maintain a majority of settlements in the West Bank, including those with large populations, while ensuring Palestine remains a contiguous state. This would minimise the logistically difficult process of evacuating Israeli settlers.

However, previous deals, such as Donald Trump’s proposal to give areas of the Negrev Desert to Palestine, have failed due to a failure to consider the key Palestinian requirement for comparable land. Special attention should be drawn to the fact that many Palestinians in the West Bank experience food and water insecurity, with 85% of the West Bank’s water resources controlled by Israel. This emphasises the importance of finding land of comparable value, not sparse, uninhabitable land, to give to Palestine. Therefore, to ensure fairness, the land swap should be based on the following principles:

1. A contiguous Palestinian state will be established alongside the state of Israel, based on the West Bank and Gaza, with Jerusalem as its capital, on 22% of the land within the framework of the land swap.
2. The exchange should be on an acre-for-acre ratio
3. The exchange should be of comparable value
4. The ethnicities involved in the targeted areas should be taken into consideration.

These proposals will be vital in the creation of an independent Palestinian state as part of the two-state solution agreement.

Finally, it is likely that some Israeli citizens may end up becoming part of the new Palestinian state under the land swap agreement. These citizens should be offered compensation and the chance to either remain in Palestine or relocate elsewhere in Israel. Sufficient notice should be given to all affected residents to reduce uncertainty and ensure they have enough time to plan their future living situation.

The issue of Jerusalem

After the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel took control of East Jerusalem and claimed all Jerusalem as its capital with the extension of its jurisdiction and governance. Palestinians regard East Jerusalem as the capital of the future Palestinian state. Although there is a regional and international consensus that West Jerusalem should belong to Israel, and East Jerusalem to a future Palestinian state, Israel’s government is relatively skeptical on this arrangement. This has left hundreds of Palestinian residents in Jerusalem to live in a constant state of uncertainty. There have been instances of violence in the city, such as a recent attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which highlight the need for a peaceful resolution.

Jerusalem is a site of immense religious and historic significance to both Israel and Palestine, making the control of the city a controversial and sensitive issue. For this reason, it is important that both countries are able to claim Jerusalem as their capital city and access important holy sites within this city. Many sites of religious significance exist side by side, such as Temple Mount which is Judaism’s holiest site and Islam’s third holiest site, meaning that any divisions of the city under a two-state solution may make it more difficult for people to access these important sites. This makes it important for Jerusalem to be the capital of both Israel and Palestine, fulfilling the wishes of the two states.

Understanding this religious, historical, and cultural complexity in Jerusalem, the Next Century Foundation proposes that:

1. Israel and Palestine should share the de jure sovereignty of Jerusalem.
2. The international community should symbolically recognise Jerusalem as the capital of both Israel and Palestine.
3. In practical terms specific de facto arrangements could be negotiated to deal with each secondary issue. For example, these could include joint patrols in East Jerusalem, the use of Orient House as the Palestinian President’s Jerusalem residence, and a Palestinian Parliament in Abu Dis.
4. A special international regime should be arranged for the Old City, which would enable a role for the three major monotheistic faiths, Judaism, Islam, and Christianity, the state of Israel, the future state of Palestine, the Arab world and the United Nations.^[5]

The Next Century Foundation wishes to emphasise that Jerusalem being the capital city of both Israel and Palestine, with the two sharing sovereignty, would be a powerful symbol of peace.

The Refugee Issue

Millions of Palestinians were displaced following Israel’s 1948-1949 War of Independence and subsequent 1967 war. While international law guarantees the right of return as part of refugees’ rights, disagreements over history and insecurity on both sides have prevented meaningful progress on the right of return issue. The right of return is an importance principle for all Palestinians; however, Israel fears that allowing an unlimited number of Palestinian refugees to live in Israel may threaten Israel’s identity as a Jewish state.

To ensure an arrangement allowing refugees to return that Israel will agree with, the Next Century Foundation endorses the proposal from Israel’s former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that:

1. Palestinians will be allowed to enter Israel only on an individual humanitarian basis and the entry will not be under the names of “rights of return” or “family reunification”.
2. 1,000 Palestinians are allowed to enter Israel in each year, for five years. The situation will then be reviewed.
3. Introduce additional formulas for the basis of a right of return, which were suggested by the Geneva Initiative and the 2001 Taba Talks.
4. The number of refugees allowed to return will be based upon an agreement between Palestinian Authority and the Israel’s government. Such agreement should be the future basis of any agreement on the refugee issue between the parties.^[6]

The Next Century Foundation recognises that the right to return is an intrinsic right and it is arguably impossible to put a number on how many Palestinians should be able to access this right. Therefore, it is important that those who are not able to return should be offered compensation. Furthermore, it may also be worth considering the position of Israeli West Bank settlers outside the land swap zones within the refugee agreement. If some of the 56,000 settlers outside the land swap zones[7] wish to remain in a future Palestinian state, it may be possible to arrange a population swap in which a certain number of Israelis are allowed to remain in the West Bank in the new Palestinian state in exchange for the same number of refugees being allowed to return to Israel in addition to the 1,000 per year proposal.

Additionally, many Palestinians live in difficult circumstances in other countries in the Middle East. Therefore, the Next Century Foundation believes it is also necessary that:

1. Palestinians living outside Palestine will have a right of return to the State of Palestine.
2. Palestinians displaced in difficult circumstances (as is the case for example in regard to many Palestinians in Syria and Lebanon) will have a right to choose to emigrate to the West or to accept compensation in lieu

Reconciliation Process

A truth and reconciliation commission and local-centered reconciliation mechanism will be established after the signing of a final status agreement with the mandates to address all-leveled issues related to the conflict, including, but not limited to, the refugees’ experience. This process would hopefully improve future relations between the two states and limit the risk of future conflict. The reconciliation process would also be important in drawing attention to how conflicts such as this impact the daily lives of ordinary citizens.

Post-conflict reconciliation has been identified as happening in 3 stages: firstly, the establishment of non-violent coexistence between the two parties, then developing trust and confidence, and finally a development of empathy between the two sides. The aim should be for Israel and Palestine to eventually progress through all three stages, although this may well be a long process given the long-lasting history of dispute between the two states. In order for the first stage to happen, there will need to be a ceasefire which will prevent further acts of violence between the two sides. The second stage may need to involve justice for those who have been affected such as criminal investigations into the alleged human rights abuses committed by Israel in the West Bank. The joint governance of Jerusalem could also be key in building this trust by enabling both sides to cooperate on the functioning of the city. Finally, the third stage will likely need to involve the sharing of personal experiences in order to build an understanding of the deep personal impacts that this conflict has had on many lives and ensure that it is clear why such conflict should never happen again.

Conclusion

The Next Century Foundation wishes to emphasise that the issues involved in the Israel-Palestine conflict are resolvable. The challenge is in finding the political will to enact these solutions. While politicians fail to act, ordinary people suffer the consequences of this historic divide. Furthermore, peace in Israel and Palestine could accelerate wider efforts for peace in the Middle East and beyond. In a world full of struggle, from conflict to pandemics to rising costs of living to the climate crisis, a peaceful settlement to Israel-Palestine would be an immensely powerful symbol of hope to the world. A lack of action on the other hand will only serve to escalate the conflict. For this reason, it is vital to strive for solutions such as the ones proposed in this report to be taken into consideration by both Israel and Palestine, as well as the wider international community, and for a genuine effort to be made to end this historic conflict for once and all.

APPENDIX A

APPENDIX B

Source: Al Jazeera

Footnotes:

[1] According to the data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, one-third of the Palestinian population is youths. The youth, in definition, points to 15-29 year-old individuals.

[2] See Appendix B.

[3] Further discussion on the city Ari’el should be proceeded by the parties.

[4] Considerably revised security arrangements for Hebron should however be contemplated to see whether the eviction of the existing small but controversial settlement in Hebron can be avoided.

[5] This arrangement would be aligned with the 1947 UNGA Resolution 181, the Palestinian Plan

[6] This principle is enshrined in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.

[7] See Appendix B