Libya: factions fighting for control

The fall of Muammar Gaddafi left a power vacuum with several factions vying for control in Libya. Firstly, there is the Government of National Accord (GNA). This government is recognised by the United Nations. It controls parts of Tripoli and holds some influence over a larger area of Western Libya dependant on the cooperation of Misratan militia groups. It is led by Prime Minister Abdul Dbeibeh. Secondly, there is the Libya National Army (LNA), led by one of Muammar Gaddafi’s former generals, Khalifa Haftar. They control a large portion of Libya, including Tobruk and much of Benghazi, which they managed to secure in 2017 after a long and intense conflict in the city. They are supported by the House of Representatives, a rival parliament to the GNA. There are also other smaller militias fighting for power. Militias are prevalent in Libya and their members form 11% of Libya’s workforce at a very conservative estimate. One of the more important factions is the large militia coalition in Misrata, which has had various clashes with other forces in the country. There are also are many Islamic militias, some of whom are moderate, while some have ties to terrorist organisations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS and have carried out terrorist attacks both in Libya and abroad. Finally, there is the Muslim Brotherhood, the largest Islamic political party in Libya. They claim they are willing to govern alongside secular parties in Libya and have been subject to attacks from more extreme groups due to their more moderate position.

Libya and the international community

The international community has significant interests in Libya’s large oil reserves, as well as concerns about the spread of Islamic extremism and genuine problems with migrants from many different countries in Africa that cross the Mediterranean Sea from Libya to Europe. As well as being the officially recognised government, the GNA receives financial and military support from Turkey and Qatar. This support enabled the GNA and its militia allies to resist General Haftar’s attempts to take control of Tripoli in 2019.  Haftar’s LNA is supported by various countries including the UAE, Egypt, and Russia. Russia has sent the LNA an estimated 2,000 mercenaries from the Wagner Group. France also sees Haftar and the LNA as an effective force to prevent the spread of Islamic extremism. While Libya’s former colonial power Italy used to support the LNA, it has recently tried to facilitate negotiations between the two sides. Other countries, such as Germany, encourage elections to be held to resolve the conflict.

Libya: the possibility of elections

In October 2020, the GNA and LNA signed a historic ceasefire agreement which helped to partially alleviate the situation; however the country still faces significant levels of violence, instability and human rights abuses. Holding elections has often been heralded as a way to achieve stability in Libya. However, elections that were meant to happen in late 2021 were postponed due to many unresolved disagreements, including the rules of the election, who could run for President (the issue being the question of whether controversial candidates like General Haftar or Gaddafi’s relatively popular son, Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, should be allowed to run), and what the powers of the winning faction would be. There are supposed to be elections later this year, although no fixed date has been set. There are concerns that any election result would be illegitimate due to militias or the LNA either preventing people from voting or rigging the ballot, and that disputes over election results would increase violent conflict. However, the delays over elections have led to a great sense of frustration amongst Libyans, especially as the country is experiencing a worsening humanitarian crisis alongside its political instability. About 2.44 million Libyans are in need of some form of humanitarian assistance, about a third of Libya’s population. Years of conflict, as well as Covid-19, had severely damaged Libya’s economy and there are significant fuel and electricity shortages. Migrants from other African countries also face violence and unlawful detention in Libya. There have been recent demonstrations, including the storming of the parliament building in Tobruk, calling for elections to be held soon and for the country’s humanitarian and economic crises to be resolved. Ordinary Libyans are becoming more vociferous in their demands for a solution to the conflict to be reached.