The United Arab Emirates are leading the way in the rehabilitation of Syria in today’s Middle East. Their underlying motive may have more to do with their underlying concern about the political strength of the Muslim Brotherhood, to whom the Damascus government is opposed, rather than with a concern for the wellbeing of Syria’s population; but the result is at least in some respects, an improvement of the lot of Syria. The UAE now joins Russia and China in the fight to better the lot of Syria.

In December 2018, Syria-United Arab Emirates relations reconciled after seven years of embassy closure, United Arab Emirates (UAE) reopened its embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Syria was a close ally with many Gulf states, including the UAE before 2011. However, after condemnation for bloodshed from the Saudi Arabian King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud in August 2011, along with the five other members of the GCC, the UAE finally closed its embassy in Damascus in March 2012.

From then on, the relations between Syria and the United Arab Emirates diminished, but both parties retained diplomatic relations. On the one hand, the Syrian embassy continued to operate in Abu Dhabi. On the other hand, in February 2012, the UAE joined the international coalition of states opposed to Bashar Al-Assad’s government known as ‘the group of Friends of the Syrian people’ that aims to discuss issues around rebuilding Syria.

Shifting Position

The UAE shifted its foreign policy during the Syria conflict spured on by various regional conflicts and developments, for example, the military intervention in Libya to fight against Islamist-led groups supported by Turkey and Qatar, and the intervention in Yemen to combat Ansr Allah militants. Since 2015, the UAE’s participation in the US-led anti-ISIS coalition in Syria declined and its regional priorities have shifted to the conflicts in Libya and Yemen.

Moreover, because of Russia’s large-scale military and aerial intervention in Syria against the armed opposition in September, the likelihood of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government became increasingly remote.

Until 2018, when the willingness of some Gulf states to normalise relations with Bashar al-Assad’s government became explicit. Based on these political evolutions, Anwar Gargash, who is officer in the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, declared the decision of resuming relations with Damascus and reopening the embassy came after “a careful reading of developments”, and the “birth of a conviction”. The Emirati minister reminded all of the necessity of reactivating an Arab presence and its role in the country and the UAE also showed the wiliness to counter Turkey and Iran’s increasing influence in Syria.

After Syria’s reconciliation with the Arab World began, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the Turkish military offensive in northeast Syria in October 2019, noting that “the military aggression represented a serious development and an unacceptable, flagrant assault on the sovereignty of a brotherly Arab state in defiance of international law and a blatant interference in Arab affairs.” It showed the firm stance of the UAE to protect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

Russia’s intervention since 2015

Syria is Russia’s closest ally in the Middle East. The Russian intervention in Syria was generated by the confluence of military enabling factors and political factors. The main political drive is the outcome of the collapse of the Assad government would have led to grave security implications for Russia. Besides, Russia thought that in the absence of military intervention, the obvious other alternative means, diplomacy, had proven futile.

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seized the Syrian city of Palmyra and launched an attack on northwest Syria in May 2015. Although Assad’s forces had recovered from previous setbacks and fought back, Moscow viewed these developments as a sign of Assad and allied forces’ decisive defeat. If Assad’s downfall happened, it would increase the terrorist threat to Russia and encourage the forces of transnational terrorism. Importantly, it represented a legitimisation of Western-backed regime change, which also cause a threat to Russia’s national security.

On the other hand, Russia reinforced its relations with Syria in order to maintain middle-east involvement. Positive relations between Syria and Russia are important to deepening Russia’s influence in the Arab World. Russia had provided support to the Syrian government by preventing UN-sanctioned foreign intervention and the halting of arms supplies. The friendly foreign policy to Syria can be seen in the arms sales with Syria. Russia has continued providing weapons to the Syrian army, though Israel and the US have condemned Russia for these sales.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative

In 2021, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad won re-election with 95 percent of the vote. The Western countries doubted the reliability of the poll, while Russia, Iran, and China endorsed the result. As Assad has wanted to gain some support for his post-war reconstruction, the Chinese endorsement could be a beginning to building a firmer Sino-Syrian connection. Since other forms of foreign capital, especially from the West, are likely unavailable under the lead of Assad, the Chinese capital is alternatively attractive to Iran. Syria has tried to attract Chinese investment and joined the Belt and Road Initiative on 12th January 2022. After many years of civil war, Syria claimed the Belt and Road Initiative would reconstruct the country and facilitate socio-economic development in the post-war period.

The post-war reconstruction would need around $250 billion, according to the UN estimation. Syria provides investment projects in the field of infrastructure, telecommunications, and energy that is a worthy multi-billion dollar enterprise. Due to the geostrategic location of Syria, these investment projects also offer China access to the ports of Latakia and Tartus in the Syrian Mediterranean Sea and, in the longer term, an ability to strengthen footholds in Greece’s Piraeus . China has developed a Special Economic Zone near Tripoli Port (Lebanon) that allows the Chinese low tariffs on goods imported to Syria at more competitive prices.

With Russian and Iranian military and political support, Assad has consolidated his power in Syria. The end of the civil war is likely ahead, Syria has to consider the social and economic developments as the priority that would give China a more dominant role in Syria. According to the Diplomatist magazine, before Syria’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicated that bilateral trade with Syria totaled $1.3 billion. China’s bilateral trade with Syria totaled $13.7 billion in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 33 percent. The China’s Belt and Road Initiative ties the relations between China and Syria closer but could create a slight rift between China and Russia.

China has, nontheless, to be careful. It is still completely dependent on trade with the West for its economic wellbeing, and cannot afford to tread on the toes of the USA and get its private sector companies sanctioned in turn.

The one thing that is clear, is that better days lay ahead, for Bashar al Assad and his government.