The Russia-Ukraine War has now been ongoing for some 600 days without any signs of a serious attempt to promote peace. In the past two weeks, both Russia and Ukraine have reached out to their respective allies. However, there is a growing sense of fatigue among Ukraine’s Western allies both due to the protracted warfare and electoral considerations.
Despite repeated assurances from the European Union and the United States that they remain committed to supporting Ukraine, doubts have emerged due to the sluggish economic situation. On September 30th, a temporary budget agreement in the US Congress to prevent a government shutdown did not include £4.92 billion in military aid for Kyiv. The military aid to Ukraine has faced opposition from hard-right Republicans. The temporary agreement was viewed as a compromise with the Democrats by hardline Republicans and led to Kevin McCarthy’s removal as the US House of Representatives Speaker on October 3rd, marking an unprecedented development. This impasse has stalled the decision on whether to approve further US aid to Ukraine, even though the US has already provided £37 billion in military assistance, including advanced weaponry. President Joe Biden advocates for resuming support for Ukraine.
Following this budget dispute, all 27 EU foreign ministers gathered in Kyiv on October 2nd to demonstrate their solidarity with Ukraine. After the meeting, Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs, announced £4.3 billion in aid for Ukraine’s armed forces, including specialized training for fighter pilots. However, European leaders clearly stated that the EU would not be able to fully replace U.S. support. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reflected on the concerns over the long-term support to Ukraine from the U.S. but also conveyed her optimism about the U.S. eventually resuming its support.
Meanwhile, political setbacks in Eastern Europe have affected EU united support, notably in Slovakia, where a pro-Russian populist party won the most votes in an election on the first of October. The former populist prime minister Robert Fico is expected to come to power. This could shift Slovakia’s stance closer to Hungary, challenging the EU’s consensus on supporting Ukraine against Russia’s incursion. The current president Zuzana Čaputová has asked Fico to form a coalition government. In the meantime, Bratislava won’t send more aid to Kyiv as parties that oppose such support are in the new government. Of itself, this is not the major setback it may seem. Slovakia’s huge Soviet-era weapons factories will continue to provide essential munitions to Ukraine, at a price.
In another development, Poland has aligned itself with Hungary and Slovakia by maintaining a ban on importing Ukrainian grain, despite the previous ban expiring on September 15th which the EU decided not to prolong. This move by Poland was followed by an announcement from Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki that Warsaw would cease supplying weapons to Kyiv, redirecting its focus towards enhancing its defence capabilities. As parliamentary elections loom on the horizon, a hard-right party is gaining momentum in Poland, further complicating the landscape and raising concerns about the continuity of support for Ukraine among Western allies.
Despite scepticism and challenges, President Zelensky of Ukraine continues to call for support. During his visit to Canada on September 22, Zelensky addressed the Canadian parliament, urging continued assistance. Canada has pledged approximately £4.8 billion in aid, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reaffirming his country’s commitment to Ukraine in June.
Ukraine’s Progress in the War
Ukraine has made gradual progress in its counter-defence operations. Notably, a Ukrainian missile strike garnered international attention as it targeted the base of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Crimea, while President Zelensky visited Canada. Ukraine officially reported that this strike claimed Admiral Viktor Sokolov’s life, who served as the commander of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, along with 33 other officers. Nevertheless, the day following this incident, Russia’s defence ministry released a video featuring the Black Sea Fleet’s commander participating in a conference. Nevertheless, this counter-defensive action continues to command attention as a high-profile attack on Russian forces in the region.
Despite Ukraine’s progress in the southern part of the country, there is a concern that ammunition is being used faster than Western allies can supply it. Both the UK and NATO have issued warnings that Western military powers are running low on ammunition to aid Ukraine in defending itself against Russia’s invasion. Most of the ammunition comes from NATO, which is now working on various plans to share expertise, enter joint contracts with defence manufacturers, and subsidize production as much as possible.
Russia’s War Progress
On the Russian front, Moscow has made a notable move by welcoming a foreign ally in mid-September: North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un extended his visit to Russia, where he held discussions with President Vladimir Putin, undoubtedly with a view to a covert arms deal. Last Friday, Oct 13, U.S. National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said Pyongyang has delivered more than 1,000 containers of equipment and munitions. This meeting between two nations facing international sanctions underscores the convergence of interests between Russia and North Korea as they confront intensifying confrontations with Western powers.
Meanwhile, as Ukraine carries out counter-defence efforts in the south and the Black Sea, Russia has redeployed its military forces in Eastern Ukraine. President Putin met with a senior ex-commander of the Wagner mercenary group, Andrei Troshev, and assigned him to oversee volunteer fighter units in Ukraine. However, they are likely now operating as part of the regular army rather than as a separate unit, suggesting Moscow’s cautious approach regarding the Wagner group’s involvement.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war remains a complex and dynamic conflict, marked by diplomatic manoeuvres, domestic political considerations, and shifting alliances. To restate the key issue: While Ukraine continues to seek international support, Western allies are grappling with the challenges of budgetary constraints and electoral shifts.
