The Next Century Foundation is profoundly distressed by the Palestinian terrorist attack on Israel on Saturday 7th October. That was an atrocity. We are also distressed by Israel’s request for 1.2 million Palestinians to leave their homes this morning. If this were to be a permanent rather than a temporary displacement it would amount to an atrocity in the eyes of many Palestinians. Atrocity breeds atrocity. The never-ending cycle of violence that has bedevilled Israel and its neighbours since 1948 must eventually come to an end with a peace process. That all must recognise. The absence of any serious attempt at a peace process at all by the international community for the PAST DECADE may have led us to this terrible point in history.

Israel’s airforce today announced on X formerly known as Twitter that it has dropped more than 6,000 bombs on Gaza since the war began (see a video below towards the end of this post).

The NCF can confirm that Hamas has meanwhile unilaterally released one hostage with her two children as a gesture.

On a sad note, the NCF has to report that we have lost contact with a key member of the NCF in Gaza, which causes us great concern.

Israel-Lebanon Clashes

Hezbollah, by far the largest Lebanese political group, has proclaimed its support for Hamas, highlighting an affinity between the two groupings, though Hezbollah is closer to Palestinian Islamic Jihad who seized the opportunity to join the Hamas armed incursion into Israel’s territory with its own “Al-Aqsa” brigade.

Just after Hamas’ attack, Hezbollah released a statement saying that it was closely monitoring events in Israel-Palestine and was in close communication with the leadership of the Palestinian resistance. It restated Hamas’ claims that the assault constituted a “decisive response to Israel’s continued occupation and a message to those seeking normalisation with Israel” – a rejoinder to those Arab countries pursuing rapprochement with the State of Israel.

On Sunday (8 October), Hezbollah launched guided rockets and artillery at three posts in Shebaa Farms “in solidarity with the Palestinian resistance,” to which Israel responded with an artillery barrage. Having been seized by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War, Shebaa Farms remains a crucial focal point of Lebanese revanchism.  And, on Monday, a number of armed men crossed the border near the Lebanese town of Dhayra and were killed by Israeli troops supported by helicopter gunships.

In addition to these border clashes, Israel’s military claims to have attacked Hezbollah strongholds within Lebanon. Hezbollah said three of its fighters were killed in Israel’s attacks on Lebanese towns and villages.

The recurrence and escalation of these clashes raise concerns that the as-yet localised Gaza border flare-up might prove the catalyst for a multi-pronged, multilateral regional conflict.

Indeed, giving voice to these concerns, US President Joe Biden has warned Israel’s enemies that “this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.” The unfortunate consequence of the US President’s belligerent language and actions may be that he is provoking wider conflict but it is already in the run-up to elections in the USA so perhaps he feels the need to act tough.

Biden’s Declaration of Support

In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ assault, senior US politicians were quick to announce their solidarity with the Israeli people. President Joe Biden guaranteed the country “rock solid and unwavering support” – a sentiment echoed by Anthony Blinken, the incumbent Secretary of State, in his decrial of “Hamas terrorists”. This reflects the strength and longevity of the US-Israel alliance.

Now, with Israel readying itself for a monumental ground operation into the Gaza Strip, the USA –  which provides roughly $3bn in military aid to Israel each year – has assembled a comprehensive emergency aid package worth $2bn in support of the nation’s war effort. Heading the list of pledges, the USA has already dispatched its most sophisticated aircraft and aircraft carriers to the Levant, equipped with an extensive collection of munitions.

An Egyptian Humanitarian Corridor?

Egypt, which has often served as a mediator between Israel and Palestine, has confirmed its commitment to facilitating the provision of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. But officials in Cairo have rejected proposals to establish a humanitarian corridor that would allow Gazan civilian refugees to enter the country through the Rafah crossing – their only viable exit route.

In a speech he delivered on Thursday, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said that the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip must stay resolute and “remain on their land,” warning of “the liquidation of the Palestinian cause” should they relocate. He added, however, that Egypt will exert “utmost” efforts to “contain the escalation and ongoing fighting and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people.”

Israel, meanwhile, has warned Cairo that trucks bearing vital aid and fuel would be bombed if they entered Gaza, forcing several of these humanitarian vehicles to retreat until further notice. This follows Israel’s defence minister’s announcement on Monday of a “total blockade” of Gaza, restricting the enclave’s access to food, water, fuel and electricity.

A senior Egyptian messaged the Next Century Foundation today to say that we must have peace, “It is either dialogue or destruction”.

Saudi Arabia

Rumours of impending Saudi-Israel rapprochement – allegedly brokered by the US – had proliferated in the weeks prior to the attack.

Since Saturday’s events, however, Saudi officials have criticised Israel’s failure to negotiate a peace settlement with the Palestinians along the lines of the two-state solution.

Conversely, some of the country’s most influential journalists have pressed for Saudi Arabia’s return to the negotiating table with the US, expressing their hope that a solution suitably cognizant of Palestinian, Israeli and Saudi interests can still be achieved.

In the process of adjudicating these conflicting viewpoints, the country’s final diplomatic course remains undetermined.

A senior representative of the government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (name withheld) has messaged the Next Century Foundation to say that this war must end. He does not normally send messages in a personal capacity without clearance. The exact message was, “No war FULL-STOP. The people in that region need dialogue and peaceful coexistence. We need NCFP to play a part today and in the future.”

Syria

Elsewhere in the Arab world, the Syrian foreign ministry has, in no uncertain terms, told Saudi Arabia to abandon all attempts at pursuing a deal with Israel. On the other hand, both Bahrain and UAE have cautioned against allowing Hamas’ attack to destabilise normalisation negotiations, calling instead for détente and de-escalation.

However, Israel has been incautious in its approach and has now bombed the two principal airports in Syria, which may escalate, rather than de-escalate, the situation.

Europe Reacts

Writing on X (Twitter), the head of the European Union’s executive commission, Ursula von der Leyen, characterised the attack as “terrorism in its most despicable form.”

The British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he was “shocked” by the attacks, asserting Israel’s “absolute right to defend itself.” Britain has also despatched an aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry likewise acknowledged Israel’s “right to defend itself and its people,” whilst its Russian counterpart called for an “immediate ceasefire” and both parties’ agreement to a “negotiation process aimed at establishing a comprehensive, lasting and long-awaited peace.”

China and India

In a much-reviled statement, Beijing has refrained from explicitly denouncing Hamas, seeking instead to cast itself as a neutral party in the conflict. China’s Foreign Ministry has urged “relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint and immediately end the hostilities,” whilst reiterating China’s support for a “two-state solution” peace settlement.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has, by contrast, affirmed his country’s unwavering support for the Israeli people in a stand against “terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.”