Israel’s tanks captured the main road dividing the eastern and western halves of Rafah, effectively encircling the entire eastern side of the city in the southern Gaza Strip. Hamas has put Israel in a difficult position by, to our astonishment, accepting Israel’s terms for a merely temporary ceasefire (though with the caveat that Hamas says it expects it to become permanent). Premier Netanyahu had already issued instructions to start Israel’s attack on the town of Rafah at the bottom end of the Gaza Strip. Israel’s forces have massed tanks close to built-up areas of Rafah, after US President Joe Biden vowed to withhold weapons from Israel if its forces launched a major invasion of the southern Gaza city. He must now decide whether or not to go for the ceasefire on terms he himself said were acceptable. He claims that the Hamas offer differs in key dimensions from Israel’s offer, without stating in what regard.

By Tuesday, Israel’s forces had seized the Palestinian side of the pivotal Rafah border crossing that links Gaza to Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. Israel intensified bombardments on parts of the city, hitting houses and residential towers, and prompted more than 100,000 people into a panicked evacuation. The Rafah border crossing was closed, thus cutting off Egypt’s access to the Gaza Strip (and incidentally closing the main route for humanitarian aid) though Israel’s authorities said another direct crossing between Israeol and Gaza at Kerem Shalom remained open to funnel critical supplies into Gaza — a claim questioned by aid groups that said the routes were not safe for the passage of humanitarian relief. Hamas called Israel’s “storming” of the Rafah border crossing a “dangerous escalation” and accused Israel of trying to “exacerbate the humanitarian situation in the Strip by closing” the crossing. Taking the crossing is a way of bringing Israel into the Philadelphia corridor. At present trucks drive into Israel. Get checked. Then drive to Rafah. Get checked by Egypt. Then pass into Palestine. Now Israel will grant control of the Palestinian side of the crossing to a private US security firm and a Palestinian Fateh General from the PLO intelligence services operating on the West Bank (General Majid Fares).
Now (should the crossing open) you have an extra check. So Israel checks twice. Once before the trucks get to Rafah. Then on the other side via a private sector company. More delays and more bureaucracy in an already convoluted and patchy process. If Netanyahu now accepts the ceasefire without first engaging in a full scale attack on Rafah, the right wing will leave his government. Theoretically this might bring the government down. But Yair Lapid, the main opposition leader and head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, has said he will “give Netanyahu cover” so that the government does not fall if Netanyahu decides to “bring the hostages home”. Hamas’ announcement that it accepts the proposed cease-fire deal took Israel by surprise. The fact that Netanyahu is trapped by Hamas’ ‘Yes,’ is now driving a wedge between the USA and Israel.

To reiterate: Hamas’ main demands are to end the war and the withdrawal of Israel’s forces from the whole Gaza Strip. Israel’s main position for the deal is the release of prisoners held by Hamas, in exchange for a temporary truce. As of the afternoon of 9th May, Israel’s delegation has left Cairo.

Hamas’ overseas leader Ismail Haniyeh confirmed the organization accepted Egypt and Qatar’s cease-fire/hostage release deal proposal. The IDF has asked civilians to move out of East Rafah in southern Gaza. Israel’s defense minister told Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Hamas left Israel no choice but to begin an offensive in Rafah. The U.S., the EU, France, Saudi Arabia and Egypt called on Israel to forgo an assault on Rafah.

Meanwhile an explosive drone hit the northern Israel town of Metula; thirty rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

And in the meantime, dozens of protests have engulfed many North American university campuses, raising significant concerns over the excessive use of police violence.

Whilst President Joe Biden has said that if Israel storms Rafah town he will cut off offensive military aid to Israel. The British government refused to do the same but instead increased government funding to universities to combat anti-semitism. Yesterday, Trump called the Biden move “disgraceful.”

• In related news: Slovenia has announced that it will recognise a Palestinian State “by Mid June”, which would make it the second country in Europe to do so (along with Sweden). Spain and Ireland are also considering the recognition of the State of Palestine.

Casualty Figures

As of the 3rd of May, at 13:30 GMT, the casualty figures for those killed since the 7th of October stand as follows:

• In Gaza, at least 34,654 people have been killed, with more than 77,908 people injured and 8,000 people missing. Due to difficulties on the ground, the figures presented by the Hamas-led Palestinian Health Ministry have not been independently verified, but are regarded as consistently reliable.
• In the West Bank, over 492 people have been killed, with over 4,800 people injured.
• In Israel, estimates vary considerably but significantly more than 1,139 people have been verifiably killed and at least 8,730 have been injured. However, if Israel’s soldiers subsequently killed in Gaza are included the number is higher. Israel has lost 263 soldiers since it moved into Gaza on 27 October (figures as of 1 May 2024).

Journalists Targeted

The Washington Post published footage filmed by a Palestinian journalist before a strike in which two journalists were killed and two others were wounded. The video shows no IDF troops or military equipment in the area, which the Post says raises “critical questions about why the journalists were targeted.” The Head of the Next Century Foundation in Gaza, Adel Zaanoun, sent us this story (click on image to the right) about his own brother, Khader al Zanoun, a Gazan journalist.

More than ninety journalists, mostly Gazan Palestinians, have been killed in Gaza since the onset of this war. Some, as was the case with Wael Dahdouh, an NCF member in Gaza who is an Al Jazeerah journalist, have had their families killed.

Journalists are also being targeted and harassed in the West Bank and MADA (and here by both Israel and the Palestinian Authority), the Palestinian Press Freedom Group, is a good source of information in this regard.

Blinken meets with Saudi Arabia

On the 29th of April, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Saudi Arabian Prime Minister, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Riyadh. In a State Department statement, particular mention was made of the need for, ‘reaching an immediate ceasefire in Gaza that secures the release of hostages, and preventing further spread of the conflict’. But since the Hamas tentative acceptance of the deal, Washington has been surprisingly silent. It is also important to note that any ceasefire would also de-escalate the current crisis with the Ansarullah attacks (referred to in the press as “Houthi” attacks) on international shipping in the Red Sea. In Anthony Blinken’s subsequent meeting with Arab foreign ministers he took a similar line with particular emphasis on the need for the imminent temporary ceasefire and hostage deal.

These are positive signals in terms of working a mutually beneficial agreement that could ultimately lead to peace, but they do not provide much assurance of a long-term binding deal. On 2nd May, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller claimed that while the United States and Saudi Arabia are nearing a major deal that is driven by security-related commitments, they are heavily contingent upon the normalisation component that involves Israel’s commitment to both a security pact and a pathway to an independent Palestinian state. Whether this would fully take place, or if there is a possibility of a truncated set of agreements that would take out Israel as part of the equation, remains to be seen with increased frustration shown in Washington over a lack of civilian protection in Israel’s proposed Rafah offensive.

Distance grows between Israel and the United States

On 30th April, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to launch an invasion of Rafah, the southern city bordering Egypt, regardless of the outcome of ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. The negotiations currently also involve Egypt, the United States, and Qatar, countries that are pushing for hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoner release and a short-term ceasefire of just six weeks as key conditions.

Recent weeks have seen growing convergence between anti-governmental demonstrations in Israel and rallies by the families of the hostages, with an emphasis on bringing hostages home rather than military action. Premier Netanyahu, for the most part, has chosen to retain the support of more hardline ministers by both ignoring the growing calls for a ceasefire and selectively addressing the Tikva Forum, a group that represents a minority of hostages’ families.

Both Israel and Hamas officials are heading to Cairo to further discuss the latest ceasefire proposal presented by Egypt. This is to be followed by a scheduled meeting of Israel’s war cabinet, to discuss the next steps in any ceasefire deal involving the hostages. It is doubtful that significant progress will be made.

Campus Demonstrations met by police violence in the United States, Canada

On 17th April, the first of several dozen student encampments were established and protests began at Columbia University after months of planning. The original encampment was immediately broken up with over a hundred arrests made by the New York Police Department (NYPD) on the 18th April, with authorisation from the university president Minouche Shafik.

In the weeks since then, the encampments have spread to dozens of universities across the United States, with calls for the universities to divest from any investments they hold in companies involved with Israel. The demonstrations were met in some instances by counter-protests, as well as mass arrests and related acts of violence by local and state police. Over 2,000 people have been arrested at the student protests in recent weeks, with one of the more dramatic incidents occurring at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), where over 200 arrests were made. 

Image featured first above by Hosny Salah from Pixabay