The image featured above is of an IDF soldier being photographed by a colleague as he burns books in the library of Al Aqsa University in Gaza. Subsequently, the IDF burnt the entire library to the ground.

Israel Expands its Military Operation in Gaza

Israel has expanded its military operations to the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, where many displaced Palestinians had been instructed to seek refuge. On Sunday the 26th of May, around 50 people were killed in a strike by Israel’s military forces that hit a refugee camp. According to Israel’s military, the attack was aimed at a Hamas compound, and Prime Minister Netanyahu referred to the civilian deaths as a tragic accident. However, Israel has shown no intention of halting the offensive in the area. On Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th of May, at least 21 people were killed in an attack near the International Medical Corps American hospital during ongoing explosions in Rafah, according to reports from Palestinians on the ground and local authorities. Nearly 450,000 people have been displaced from Rafah since the 6th of May, following Israel’s orders to move from their homes.

On May 13th, Israel also launched a military operation in the northern area of Gaza, in the city of Jabalia, forcing the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the area. Israel’s forces had already targeted Jabalia’s refugee camp – the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps – in December and had withdrawn in February, claiming they had destroyed Hamas infrastructure. However, on Monday the 13th of May, they re-entered Jabalia stating that Hamas had re-grouped there.

As military actions have intensified in Gaza, negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas mediated by Egypt, Qatar and others have repeatedly stalled. Qatar attributed the deadlock to Israel’s incursion into Rafah. However, prior to the attack on Rafah, Israel had rejected a ceasefire proposal brokered in Cairo with the involvement of CIA Director William Burns. The proposal, which was accepted by Hamas, was deemed unacceptable by Israel. Negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage deal were set to resume, however, Israel’s strike on Rafah’s displacement camp – which Qatar’s foreign ministry condemned as a ‘serious violation of international laws’ – could hinder mediation efforts.

Biden Presents a New Ceasefire Proposal

On the 31st of May, amid growing domestic criticism over U.S. support for Israel and calls to encourage negotiations between Hamas and Israel, President Biden presented a new ceasefire proposal, asserting that ‘it’s time for this war to end’. Biden, who stated that the deal was proposed by Israel, laid out a three-step plan. The plan entails a six-week ceasefire that would transition into a permanent arrangement after a hostage deal, followed by the reconstruction of Gaza with international support. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu – who has repeatedly insisted Israel will not end the war before Hamas is destroyed – has not yet issued a response to Biden’s proposal. Meanwhile, far-right ministers  Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have threatened to quit and collapse his government if he accepts it.

Continued Weapons Supply Remains Contentious

The Biden administration has shown growing signs of division as another State Department official involved in discussions on Israel’s actions in Gaza has recently resigned, citing disagreements with a recently published U.S. government report that claimed Israel was not obstructing humanitarian assistance to Gaza. The departing official, Stacy Gilbert, served in the State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, and asserted that the State Department was incorrect in concluding that Israel had not impeded humanitarian assistance to Gaza. The resignation constitutes a notable development as it highlights internal dissent regarding a contentious report that the Biden administration relied on to justify the continued provision of weapons to Israel.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly deteriorating. Cindy McCain, director of the World Food Program, has highlighted that starvation is entrenched in northern Gaza and spreading southward. The conflict, nearing eight months, has severely hampered aid delivery, with some regions facing a ‘full-blown famine’.

In recent weeks, amid mounting global pressure on Israel to address the worsening conditions, more aid has begun to flow into the devastated area. Of particular relevance is the temporary pier established in the south of Gaza City by the U.S. military on the 16th of May, which has created an entry point for aid for the enclave, where the flow of supplies over land has largely halted since Israel’s incursion into Rafah. The first humanitarian aid shipment via the pier arrived on the 17th of May. However, whilst the establishment of Gaza’s pier is a positive development on the humanitarian front, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has emphasized that reopening land routes is crucial to adequately address the needs of the Palestinian people.

The Pentagon has now suspended the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza via its floating pier following incidents in which four U.S. military vessels were beached, one U.S. service member was critically injured and sections of the structure were ripped free in bad weather. The U.S. military will disassemble segments of the pier attached to the Gazan shore, reconstruct them in the Israeli port of Ashdod, and then transport them back to the Gazan shore for reassembly.

Casualty Figures

As of the 4th of June, the casualty figures for those killed since the 7th of October stand as follows:

• In Gaza, at least 36,550 people have been killed, with more than 82,959 people injured and 10,000 people missing.
• In the West Bank, over 527 people have been killed, with over 5,000 injured.
• In Israel, more than 1,139 people have been killed and at least 8,730 have been injured.

Israel’s Growing Isolation in The International Community

Israel is finding itself increasingly isolated in the international community. On the 10th of May, the UN General Assembly overwhelmingly voted to support the Palestinian bid for full UN membership, with 143 member states in favour, nine opposed – including the United States and Israel – and 25 abstentions, including the United Kingdom.

Further international support for Palestine was reflected in another significant development that saw Spain, Norway, and Ireland announcing their decision to formally recognise its statehood. The move constitutes an important shift in the Western world, considering that most Western states have so far resisted recognising Palestine.

Israel slipped further into international isolation as the International Criminal Court (ICC) recently applied for arrest warrants for Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant, as well as for senior Hamas officials. The chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Karim Khan stated that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Hamas leader Sinwar bore criminal responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity from at least the 7th of October 2023. The warrants have yet to be granted by the panel of judges concerned at the ICC.

U.S. President Biden has rejected the ICC prosecutor’s application for arrest warrants for Israeli officials, arguing that there is no moral equivalence between the democratic government of Israel and a terrorist group like Hamas. Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives has recently approved a bill to sanction the ICC. Proposed by pro-Israel Republicans, the bill targets ICC officials by blocking their entry to the US. Although the bill passed in the House, it is unlikely to become law as Democrats, who control the Senate, are expected to ignore it. Indeed, Biden – whilst criticising the ICC’s application for arrest warrants for Israeli officials – has expressed strong opposition to the bill, and the administration has stated that it does not support the sanctions.

Deepening Israel’s international isolation, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) also expressed condemnation against Israel on Friday the 24th, ruling that it must immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah. The ICJ has no means to enforce the ruling. However, if Israel does not comply, the matter can be referred to the UN Security Council, which, in the absence of a veto, could impose measures against Israel, potentially including sanctions.

Arab Summit Calls for UN Peacekeeping Force and International Peace Conference

A regional, renewed commitment to resolve the Palestinian issue emerged from the Arab Summit held in Bahrain on the 16th of May, where the Arab League called for a UN peacekeeping force in Palestinian territories and international protection until a two-state solution is implemented. The Arab League also adopted calls by host Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to convene an international conference that seeks to resolve the Palestinian issue based on the two-state solution.

Recent Developments in the Middle East

Meanwhile, regional tensions have been rising as Iran-backed Shi’ite armed groups have increased their rocket and missile attacks on Israel in recent weeks. These attacks have come from militias in Iraq as well as from Hezbollah in Lebanon. The escalation has raised concerns in Washington and among some Iranian allies about the potential for retaliation by Israel’s military and broader regional conflict. These concerns do not seem to be unfounded, considering that Prime Minister Netanyahu, whilst visiting the site in Israel’s northern border with Lebanon where Hezbollah rocket attacks caused wildfires, stated that the IDF is prepared for military action against Hezbollah.

Netanyahu Under Increasing Pressure 

On the 17th of May, the Israel Defense Forces recovered the bodies of three hostages: 22-year-old Shani Louk, 28-year-old Amit Buskila, and 56-year-old Itshak Gelernter. According to Israel, the three individuals were killed by Hamas while escaping the Nova music festival on October 7 and their bodies were taken into Gaza. On the 3rd of June, the death of four more hostages – 51-year-old Nadav Popplewell, 79-year-old Chaim Peri, 80-year-old Yoram Metzger and 85-year-old Amiram Cooper – were confirmed by the IDF, which stated that their bodies are still being held my Hamas. Meanwhile, there are signs of growing domestic discontent with Premier Netanyahu’s approach to the war, as thousands of Israelis have been protesting in Tel Aviv, urging the government to pursue an immediate hostage agreement.

Adding to the pressure on Premier Netanyahu’s government is the recent ultimatum given by War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz, who has threatened resignation unless a post-war plan for Gaza is presented by the 8th of June. The departure of Gantz’s centrist National Unity party would mark the end of cross-party cooperation that followed the October 7 attack and increase Premier Netanyahu’s dependence on the extreme right-wing parties within his coalition.

Meanwhile, on the 19th of May, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Netanyahu to discuss a more targeted military operation in Gaza to minimize civilian casualties and diplomatic efforts to secure the release of hostages. Before visiting Israel, Mr. Sullivan had visited Saudi Arabia, where he held meetings with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman. They discussed the semi-final version of the draft strategic security agreement between Saudi Arabia and the United States.

However, Saudi Arabia has many times stated that a US-Saudi deal – if it were to involve normalisation of relations with Israel – would have to include the recognition of a Palestinian state, a condition that is not likely to be accepted by the current Israeli government. Whilst the normalisation of relations with Saudi Arabia would be a huge political milestone for Israel as it would foster its long-desired integration in the region, endorsing a pathway toward a two-state solution would cost Premier Netanyahu the support of his far-right coalition partners and potentially topple his government.