The ongoing conflict in Gaza has prompted significant international involvement, with various nations proposing plans for Gaza’s future governance to arrive at a concrete Israel-Palestine peace process. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United States and Israel are actively working on establishing a national committee consisting of Palestinians to administer the post-war Gaza. In parallel, China has been pursuing its peace efforts, facilitating reconciliation talks among Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, which has led to the signing of the Beijing Declaration. Finally, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the rise of Yahya Sinwar as the new leader of Hamas will lead to unknown impacts on the course of the ceasefire negotiations and the exchange of prisoners and detainees.
The United Arab Emirates
The UAE expressed interest in joining a multilateral force in Gaza earlier in July; it is the first Gulf state to do so. More recently, however, the UAE along with the US and Israel have been secretly meeting in Abu Dhabi and working towards the post-war plan for Gaza. Representing Israel in this meeting was General Ghassan Alian, a Druze officer who commands an IDF infantry brigade. One of the plans discussed was to create a new national committee consisting of Palestinian leaders and business figures who would govern Gaza after the war. This would represent all Palestinian factions but would be dominated by loyalists of Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah leader and Palestinian strongman now in exile in the UAE, who could potentially be a successor to the PA President Abbas.
Dahlan, who was forced into exile in 2011 after being accused of embezzlement and plotting a coup—charges he denies—has been actively involved in discussions with representatives from the UAE. He has been meeting potential candidates, mostly businessmen with ties to the U.S. and international organizations, while frequently travelling between Abu Dhabi and Cairo.
Once a permanent ceasefire is secured, one of the new governing body’s first tasks would be to approve the entry of an international force into Gaza, as proposed by the UAE. The plan suggests Dahlan as a future leader for Gaza and, eventually, the West Bank, following Mahmoud Abbas’s tenure. However, Dahlan said that he refused to accept any security, governmental or executive role.
Beijing Declaration
In July, a three-day reconciliation meeting between 14 different Palestinian factions was held in Beijing, China. At the closing of the talks, the Beijing Declaration was signed by these factions, including Fatah and Hamas. The Declaration involves an agreement to form an interim national reconciliation government for the West Bank and Gaza and touches on the post-war management of Gaza. Wang Yi, China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, also outlined a three-step plan for Gaza, which includes promoting a lasting ceasefire, upholding the principle of Palestinians governing Palestine, recognising a two-state solution and granting Palestine full UN membership.
Israel, on the other hand, dismissed this reconciliation declaration; Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, criticised Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for allegedly supporting Hamas, referring to the group as “murderers and rapists.” Katz asserted that Hamas’s rule would be destroyed and that Abbas would remain distant from Gaza. He emphasized that Gaza would continue to be controlled solely by Israel following the end of hostilities and rejected the idea that the reconciliation would be successful or have any impact on the ongoing conflict.
China has long called for a two-state solution and an immediate ceasefire to pave the way towards a “comprehensive, just and lasting” settlement. An earlier effort made by China in the peace settlement process includes another reconciliation talk held in Beijing in April, which only involved Fatah and Hamas. It also covered a review of efforts to achieve a ceasefire, the possibility of increased humanitarian aid from China to Gaza, and Israel’s actions. However, the reconciliation efforts to form a unified Fatah-Hamas Palestinian government failed. The position China currently holds shows its desire to play a constructive and vital role in establishing peace and stability in the Middle East, and for a new China-Arab relations era where it aligns with the Arab world and the Global South. This would highlight China’s power in international politics and promote the vision of a Chinese-led world order as a more suitable alternative to the current U.S.-led international system.
A new Hamas leader
Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Yahya Sinwar was chosen to be the new leader of Hamas. Sinwar, often viewed as one of the most uncompromising top Hamas officials, joined Hamas as one of its leaders almost as soon as the group was founded in 1987. After being arrested by Israel and serving 23 years in prison, he was released as part of the prisoner exchange in 2011. In 2017 and 2021, he became the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, where he focused on enhancing the group’s military strength . He mended relations with Iran, despite Tehran’s previous opposition to Hamas during the Syrian civil war in 2011. Israel, in contrast, has Sinwar on its killing list.
The assassination of Haniyeh, who played a key role in peace negotiations and whose killing is highly likely to have involved Israel, reflects Israel’s desire not to reach the peace process. With the new Hamas leader in place, the peace process may become even more difficult.