Since the previous update, several developments have occurred in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Below are the latest ed by NCF Research Officer Henry Y. Jeong:
Offensives continue with breakthrough in Vuhledar
On the 2nd of October, the Russian forces succeeded in capturing the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar after two and a half years of battling in Donetsk Oblast, as both Russian and Ukrainian troops aim for a respective breakthrough in their offensives. Vuhledar, which means ‘gift of coal’ in the Ukrainian language, is a small city of 12,000 located approximately 50km south of Donetsk. Having survived the First Battle of Vuhledar in the early months of 2023, it has been considered one of the last Ukrainian bastions remaining in the Donetsk area where the Russian forces have been making steady progress in capturing strategic points in the months following its successful capture of Avdiivka in February.
While the Russian offensive has been steady in the region, the first instance where a change had been noted in public was on the 25th September, when the British Defence Ministry provided their latest intelligence update on Russian encirclement of the town. The Russian progress made in Vuhledar, however, did not emerge so quickly afterwards with both Russian and Ukrainian sources confirming that the Ukrainian forces were refuting reports of a takeover with direct video footage, as well as still being able to mount a successful holdout as late as the 27th of September.
Events on the battlefront, however, rapidly changed in subsequent days as the Russian forces made their way through the city. The city’s encirclement was even more critical due to its strategic position along a railway line that links to Crimea. The Ukrainian forces retreated in what was a multi-day effort that would begin with the transfer of Colonel Ivan Vinnik, the commander of the 72nd Mechanised Unit that had been placed to protect the region on the 30th. This would subsequently be followed by the gradual retreat by the rest of the unit, which abandoned Vuhledar in the late hours of the 1st of October. With the Russian forces expected to continue their offensives following their first major victory since the Battle of Avdiivka in February, more is to be seen on updates over the Donetsk front.
Peace process looks distant, but not impossible
Even as the offensives continue to mount in Donetsk and Kursk, separate attempts to discuss a peace process have begun elsewhere, most notably in the 79th session of the United States General Assembly in New York City, United States from the 10th of September, 2024. The efforts, while predominantly overshadowed by the ongoing international conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon, have been noticeable because of the level of urgency that have been noted by both floors.
On the 25th of September, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky spoke to the UN General Assembly in a passionate, twenty minute speech that stressed the possibilities of a Russian attack on the Ukrainian nuclear infrastructure, before urging the need for international support towards his ‘Victory Plan’. This was followed by a separate, high-profile meeting in front of the UN Security Council, where the Ukrainian President emphasised that Russia must be ‘forced into peace’, due to the Kremlin’s inability to stop its disregard and violation of international law. The meeting, which was met with scoff and non attendance from Russia, was followed by subsequent rallies to drum support as Zelensky held separate talks to present his ‘Victory Plan’ with both U.S. President Joe Biden, and former President and current Presidential candidate Donald Trump. The reception has been mixed, with the White House unconvinced by its premise, and Trump remaining noncommitted.
On the 27th of September, seventeen nations took part in the meeting to propose a peace plan in a peace conference for the Russo-Ukrainian War on the assembly’s sidelines. The meeting, which was put together by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Brazilian foreign policy advisor Celso Amorim, discussed the need to prevent further escalation of the war, especially an escalation involving weapons of mass destruction [WMDs] and nuclear weapons, before agreeing to follow up with future meetings to be regularly scheduled. Subsequent reactions to the meeting have also been mixed, with both the United States and the European Union absent outside of France, Hungary and Switzerland sending observers, while the U.S. State Secretary remained optimistic on its principles before stating that the agreement would involve both parties having to be at the table.
From what has happened in the past two weeks, it is certainly a positive sign to see that there is continued interest in the peace process, even as the results have not exactly been followed up. That said, more is to be seen on whether either proposal could lead into genuine progress on establishing a sustained peace process in Ukraine. On the one hand, the joint Chinese-Brazilian proposal for a peace summit has its limitations. Its proposed peace plan, which is driven by the pre-existing six-point peace proposal raised by the Chinese, is unlikely to gain traction with Ukraine and the West, having already rejected said possibilities back in June and more recently in September as well. Furthermore, the peace proposal does not present a clear timeline or a partner, especially without India whose absence was noticeable, making the implementation aspect of it difficult.
This is not to say that the Ukrainian call for a peace process significantly progressed either. Rather, the situation in Kiev continues to be complicated by the continued political uncertainties of both the United States, where the campaigning in the weeks leading up to the Presidential Elections have no doubt made its strongest political and military guarantor volatile, as well as the European Union, where rogue member nations such as Hungary could challenge a consolidated front. With its impasse with Russia over conditions remaining, especially with the gap that has certainly grown since early 2022, Kiev’s next biggest challenge will be to find a reliable, third-party nation that could secure the support of both Russia and Ukraine, with India still being the likeliest option.
While the recent saga of events may complicate the situation, especially with the diversion of Indian-made munitions entering Ukraine and a strong risk of Russia straining its cosy relationship with India, the current situation remains optimistic in that New Delhi, who regards China as a major rival and threat, could serve as a strong, third-party mediator trusted by both Kiev and Moscow. Previously, the Next Century Foundation has recommended India, as the leading nation of the Global South, to take the initiative in brokering a peace agreement, en route to both a short and long-term peace process, as part of its written statement to the 56th Session of the United Nations’ Human Rights Council in June-July 2024. With the continued evolvement of India’s stance towards the Russo-Ukrainian War, further growing its potential as a partner nation, the NCF not only remains firm in advocating for India to embark on the cause but urges it to take prompt action towards crafting, recommending and implementing a proposal to broker peace process in the region.
