A report by Professor Tamar Hermann, Dr Lior Yohanani,and Aaron Kaplan has granted us great insight into current public opinion in Israel.
The survey was carried out by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. It was conducted via the Internet and by telephone between September 15th and September 19th, 2024. 800 male and female participants were interviewed in Hebrew and 200 in Arabic. This was to create a representative sample of the population in Israel aged 18 and above.
The War:
This survey extensively covered questions on the management of the war, the functioning of the defence forces, hostages, Israel-US relations, the current situation and elections. Particularly interesting is public opinion over ending the war in Gaza. The survey revealed that in the total sample, 53% of respondents believe that it is time to end the war in Gaza. A closer look at the responses showed that 93% of Arabs think that is time to end the war, whereas 45% of the Jewish sample thought so.
Moreover, when asked for the main reason why the war in Gaza should be ended, 53% of the sample stated because its continuation endangers the hostages (this was the most common reason amongst both Arabs and Jews). Only a small minority (2%) said it was to improve relations with the US. The second most common reason amongst Jews is that it would make it possible to focus on the northern front (20%). Among Arabs, the second most common reason was the great cost to human life and the desire for peace, quiet and security (14%).
Furthermore, when asked if the Palestinian people have or do not have the right to their own state, there was a large difference between Jewish and Arab respondents on this issue. 61% of Jewish respondents believe that Palestinians do not have the right to their state, whereas only 9.5% of Arab respondents believe that.
Finally, when asked about who should control the Gaza Strip after the end of the war, 37% (the largest share) think that it should be a multinational force. 34% were in favor of Israel having control whilst 11.5% were in support of transferring control to the Palestinian Authority. Interestingly, in the Arab sample, a high share of respondents (33%) selected “don’t know” and only 9% supported Israeli control of Gaza. This indicates the polarization of public opinion over the governance of the Gaza Strip after the war – Israeli citizens cannot cohesively agree on who should govern Gaza.
Hostages:
Responses to a question asking which of the two options should be Israel’s main goal today: toppling Hamas or bringing the hostages home revealed a change in attitude since January. In January 2024, 51% of respondents declared bringing hostages home as Israel’s main goal, 36% prioritised toppling Hamas. Now, there is a majority of 62% for bringing hostages home, only 29% rank toppling Hamas as the highest priority. Amongst both Jews and Arabs, the majority of respondents believe that bringing hostages home should be Israel’s main goal. This is not surprising. Due to the length of time that the war has been waged, the concern for hostages has increased and so has the demand for them to come home.
Threat to Israel:
The largest share of respondents stated that they think a full-scale multi-front war is the greatest threat to Israel today (41% Jews, 27% Arabs). A larger share of Jews cited the Iranian nuclear threat as the next largest threat (26%) than of Arabs (7%) – quite a notable difference.
Elections:
In a question asking when elections should be held, 47% of respondents said it should be before the end of 2024. Amongst the Jewish respondents, 41% (the largest share) would like to have elections before the end of 2024. However, 76% of Arabs would like elections to be held this year. A notable difference.
However, despite tensions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and several ministers, and regular protests held by Israelis to bring home Gaza hostages, the next elections are not due until 2026 (providing the existing coalition government does not fall, legislative elections do not have to be held in Israel before 27 October 2026 to elect the 120 members of the twenty-sixth Knesset). Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel just over a year ago damaged the reputation of Netanyahu and his governing coalition. The failure to bring the hostages home eroded public trust in Netanyahu. The high civilian death toll and the failure to achieve a decisive victory has cost Netanyahu the support of the majority of Israelis. If elections were held today, the polls suggest that Netanyahu and his allies would be unable to form a government. However, the likelihood of an early election is slim due to the strength of the coalition. The majority it has in Parliament prevents the opposition from forcing one. Therefore, an attempt to force an early election would need at least some support from members of the coalition. Recent activity in Lebanon ignited a surge of support within Israel for Netanyahu and his right-wing Likud party – this further increased with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. However, this recent glow in popularity is already starting to diminish. This was evident in the recent protests in Tel Aviv on Saturday 5th October, which called on the Prime Minister to take action to return the remaining 101 captives still held in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s popularity in Israel is not unwavering, although his hold on power is secure for the moment.
Which means:
This survey revealed the disparity between Jewish Israelis and Arab Israelis in nearly all responses. They view the war very differently which highlights their ideological differences. Most notably, public opinion has shifted over the last year in Israel as fatigue with the war has set in. The priority for the people has focused more on returning hostages.
Although the public opinion indicates that Israelis believe the war is still justified, there is now a question if it is possible to achieve total victory as there is currently no possible hostage deal without a permanent ceasefire.
