The Sudanese Civil War has been ongoing for over 17 months and shows no signs of slowing. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of over 20,000 and has created the world’s largest displacement crisis: over 13 million people have been forced to flee their homes.
On April 15th 2023, war broke out in Sudan’s capital city, Khartoum, between two army generals who were once allies in the successful coup d’état of 2019 against the then President Omar al-Bashir. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander-in-chief of the military Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, the commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), are both vying for leadership in the resulting power vacuum. Neither general’s willingness to cede power led to armed conflict, resulting in Sudan’s current unfolding humanitarian crisis.
A Humanitarian Nightmare
Martin Griffiths, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General, has stated this is “one of the worst humanitarian nightmares in recent history”. Alongside famine, multiple severe crimes against humanity have occurred, including ethnic cleansing campaigns and widespread sexual violence on civilians.
25.6 million people – over half of Sudan’s total population – are suffering from severe hunger. The criteria for famine has been met in at least one area in North Darfur, the Zamzam camp, which bears a population of over 500,000. Both warring parties are fueling the crisis by blocking international aid carrying life-saving foods such as cooking oil, salt, grain, and lentils, into civilian camps. Key aid hubs are also being looted, and farmer’s harvested crops are being stolen.
The situation in Zamzam is catastrophic. At the end of September 2024, Medecins Sans Frontieres were forced to stop outpatient care for 5,000 children with acute malnutrition in the Zamzam camp due to a lack of supplies. Aside from food, medicines and other essential supplies have been blocked for months.
Relief workers have reported that the SAF is engaging in starvation tactics to weaken areas controlled by the RSF, as the military doesn’t want food reaching areas held by enemy forces. The situation is so dire that people in displaced persons camps have resorted to eating boiled leaves sprinkled with tamarind seeds in attempts to hide the bitter taste.
Source: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET); Natural Earth. Two maps of Sudan which show food insecurity levels before and after the war began in April 2023. Since then, there has been an alarming increase in food insecurity.
Multiple international organisations and human rights agencies have defined the RSF’s violent targeting of the Masalit people as ethnic cleansing from as early on as June 2023. Other ethnic groups, such as the Zhagawa tribe, are also being targeted. While the RSF have repeatedly denied these claims, independent investigations by research bodies such as the Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) have identified that between April and October 2023, at least 68 majority Masalit villages in Darfur have been set on fire by the RSF and allied militias.
Many fear that history is repeating itself. In 2003, hundreds of thousands of people were killed in Darfur amid fighting between non-Arab rebel groups and the Janjaweed, an Arab militia group from the Sahel region, which later grew into the RSF. Some Janjaweed leaders have been indicted by the ICC on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity, which they have denied.
Sexual violence has also become widespread since the conflict began. While women and girls are the largest affected demographic, men and boys have also been subject to sexual violence by both the SAF and the RSF. While official statistics are hard to quantify due to the stigma and fear involved in reporting sexual violence, a report by Human Rights Watch found that the majority of recorded cases have been attributed to RSF members. There is, critically, a lack of emergency post rape health care, psychosocial support, and other services due to both warring parties’ attacks on health care, healthcare workers and local responders, and restrictions on civilians’ movement.
International Backers
The two sides are embroiled in the ulterior motives of international backers who fund both parties in exchange for natural resources such as gold. Russia is strategically involved with both warring parties, with the Kremlin centering their support on the SAF, while Russian militias, such as the group formerly known as the Wagner Group, are funding the RSF and supplying them with weapons.
Sudan’s allyship with Russia began in 2017, when the then president al-Bashir travelled to Russia to meet Vladimir Putin and pledged Sudan as Russia’s “gateway to Africa” in return for Russian support. In the same year, Meroe Gold, a Russian mining company, began establishing itself in Sudan. In 2o20, Russia signed an agreement with Sudan to establish a naval port in Port Sudan, on the Red Sea coast, as part of Moscow’s attempts to bolster its geopolitical influence in the region.
Last month, the UN Security Council voted on a resolution to extend the sanctions regime and arms embargo in Darfur until the possibility of further renewal in September 2025. This was a crucial decision, considering that a wide range of military equipment used by Sudanese actors was produced by companies registered in China, Iran, Russia, Serbia, and the UAE. However, there is criticism that the UN resolution is insufficient because its scope is limited to Darfur. Some hoped to see the expansion of the arms embargo to the whole of Sudan, given the rate at which conflict has spread since April 2023.
Alongside Russia, Iran and the UAE have been accused of violating the UN arms embargo by continuing to supply military equipment to the warring parties. Ukraine is also reportedly deploying special units in Sudan in order to target Russian mercenaries and illegal armed groups financed by Russia.
Prospects for Peace
In August 2024, a U.S.-led peace initiative to took place in Geneva, Switzerland. The talks were held in response to rising international demand for the alleviation of the Sudanese people’s suffering. Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, the African Union, and the United Nations also convened.
Their objectives were to initiate steps for a ceasefire between the warring parties and to expand aid routes into the region. There were also hopes that the talks would encourage the SAF and the RSF into direct contact with each other in a diplomatic context. While delegates for the RSF agreed to take part, the SAF refused to send a delegation. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, leader of the SAF, declared instead to reporters in Port Sudan: “We will not go to Geneva… we will fight for 100 years”.
Peace talks were understandably harder to conduct in the SAF’s absence, despite them communicating virtually with delegates, and ultimately no plans for a ceasefire were reached. Nevertheless, the talks did result in the announcement of the Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan (ALPS), which has since achieved positive action on three main fronts:
(1) the reopening and expansion of critical humanitarian access routes has been secured
(2) commitments to improve the protection of civilians, particularly women and children, have been formally pledged by both warring parties
(3) development of a framework to ensure compliance with the Jeddah Declaration and any future agreements between the warring parties.
On October 9th 2024, The UN Human Rights Council in Geneva adopted a resolution extending mandate of the independent international fact-finding mission (FFM) on Sudan for one more year. The resolution was introduced by the UK, also on behalf of the USA, Norway, and Germany. The resolution was adopted by 23 in favour, 12 against and 12 abstentions. Notably, the UAE, a supporter of the RSF, accounted for one of the votes against.
Future Steps
There are some promising steps towards peace, yet the war still rages on. The relative successes regarding the ALPS’s expansion of humanitarian aid and alleviation of civilian suffering are ultimately not sustainable in the long-term if there is no ceasefire.
So far, the pledges received by the ALPS have had minimal impact on the ground. UN WFP has since managed to get some aid through to West Darfur, however North Darfur (the most conflict-affected area) has still not received any aid. Recent floods during the rainy season have also impeded progress.
No comprehensive plan for a cessation of hostilities has been drawn up, despite this being one of the Geneva peace talk’s objectives in August, and civilians remain hopelessly impacted by continued warfare across Sudan. The refusal by both warring parties, particularly by the SAF, and by extension their international backers, to engage seriously in peace talks has led to a grave deadlock. There should also be more pressure on international backers who are ultimately allowing for the continuation of the Sudanese conflict through financial, military, and logistical support.
An emphasis on a strong civilian coalition provides one way out of this seemingly hopeless stalemate. Civilian-led movements have been successful in Sudan’s recent history: in 2019, pressure from a civilian-led social movement ultimately resulted in the coup d’état which brought Omar al-Bashir’s dictatorship down. For long-term and sustainable peace, international support should encourage civilians to unite on a common anti-war, pro-democracy stance in order to delegitimise both warring parties’ destructive pursuals of military victory.
