In view of the President of India’s recent visit to Moscow, and his visit this week to Ukraine, we are much heartened at better prospects for a peace process at last in regard to the terrible ongoing Russo-Ukraine war. We wish to remind NCF members of the NCF written statement to the United Nations on this subject earlier this month, which was shared directly with the President of India at the time by our Research Officer Komal Mor. The statement itself was prepared by our team member Henry Jeong and can be found in its final incarnation on this link. The text of the statement is also below:
The Next Century Foundation calls upon the Republic of India to take the initiative in brokering a peace agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Ukraine addressing the confrontation between the two countries and the essential need to ensure stability in the region. India, with its stature and position as a major nation with strong ties to both Russia and the West, is in an unparalleled position to broker a dialogue that would make possible a peace process allowing for a long-term solution. Without a peace process that could bring both Russia and Ukraine to come forward, regional security remains precarious.
Lessons from an earlier Peace Dialogue
The current state of continued warfare in Ukraine, combined with differing visions of any peace between Russia and Ukraine, makes a peace process difficult to achieve at the present time. But the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks in 2022, when the war was at its peak of violence and destruction, would suggest that with well-intentioned, third-party mediators, a peace process can be revived and aim for long-term solutions. Previously, five rounds of peace negotiations took place between February and March of 2022. The subsequent Istanbul communique, ‘Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine’s Security Guarantees’ drafted by Ukrainian and Russian officials, followed and substantial peace negotiations were close to a treaty agreement up to May 2022.
The treaty envisioned in the communiqué would proclaim Ukraine as a permanently neutral, nonnuclear state. Ukraine would renounce any intention to join military alliances or allow foreign military bases or troops on its soil. The communiqué listed as possible guarantors the permanent members of the UN Security Council (including Russia) along with Canada, the Federal Republic of Germany, the State of Israel, the Italian Republic, the Republic of Poland, and the Republic of Türkiye.
The question of Ukraine’s membership of the EU was left open, but Russia had no objection to its accession in principle. The peace talks collapsed, however, due to various factors. The West’s unmoving stance towards communicating with Russia has limited the peace process talks, while a shift in Ukrainian public opinion towards a treaty following the discovery of a massacre conducted by Russian forces in Bucha, has not helped either.
The two parties have been unable to find common ground on which to base a peace process that would allow in the short term for a cease-fire and in the longer term a peace treaty. Without a clear intention to bridge the differences between the two sides, we will continue to see the destabilisation of the region as a by-product of the war. We must take a step further to reach for a peaceful solution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, to further stabilise the advanced security concerns that have originated in the conflict, and to prevent the further escalation of the war.
A Peace Dialogue led by India
The Next Century Foundation recognises the difficulty of securing third-party bodies whose international stature and geopolitical positioning will be recognised by both Russia and Ukraine. A few countries, who hold strong relationships with Russia and the West, have called for peace talks in recent years. These include the Republic of Türkiye, a nation that played a major role in the 2022 peace negotiations, as well as the People’s Republic of China, the Federative Republic of Brazil, the Republic of Indonesia and several African states.
In the past, both the offensives and counter-offensives in the Russia-Ukraine War have influenced Russia and Ukraine in facilitating peace talks. The original peace talks between Russia and Ukraine occurred in the immediate weeks following the start of the war. While interest has mostly died down since, the current situation on the war front suggests both nations are suffering significant war fatigue, and perhaps the time is right to resume talks. A mix of sanctions and a war economy has forced Russia into a long-term economic downturn, which could last a decade. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struggled to address its issues with military enlistment in recent months, with a controversial new law passed to mandate all men of fighting age to show up for their medical examinations and update their data.
A peace process is what could be factored in at this point. Previously the five rounds of peace negotiations and the Istanbul Communique in 2022 had played a positive part in bringing Russia and Ukraine together in a stable, substantial manner. Gradual progress in the negotiations, which the Republic of Belarus and Türkiye hosted, suggests potential value in a similar summit that would give neutral ground for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate at this critical point in time. Furthermore, the troubles faced by Ukraine’s Peace Summit in the weeks leading up to the occasion, not to mention during the summit with India, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia’s refusal to sign the final declaration that was based on Zelensky’s ten-point formula, serve as a crucial reminder of a need for a neutral peace party. With this in mind, The Next Century Foundation recommends the resumption of peace talks, with immediate ceasefire agreements followed by a slow, but steady progress towards long-term treaties addressing geopolitical security issues. We recommend that India, as the leading nation of the Global South, take the initiative of organising a Russia-Ukraine Peace Conference.
STRATEGIES FOR COOPERATION
Russia and Ukraine can be brought to the table for peace negotiations through leveraging their individual positions, and the states’ relations with the international community and the brokering state.
THE REPUBLIC OF UKRAINE: A major challenge to any diplomatic effort towards ceasefire involves the geopolitical positioning of a brokering nation or organisation overseeing the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Even though the two states have remained firm in their commitment towards wartime victory, both the Russian and Ukrainian populations share war fatigue and economic challenges of their own as the war goes on. With the current restraints placed upon critical infrastructure and manpower, the opportunity grows closer for a compromise that leads to an immediate, short-term peace process.
The short-term objectives and long-term security arrangements could be used by Ukraine to work out a deal that provides both parties with much-needed resolution. Despite the logistical and political challenges with the procurement of necessary resources involving allied states, Ukraine’s security outlook still looks favourable in the coming months with the military and humanitarian aid offering Ukraine much-needed reinforcements. The vantage point, however, is not permanent, and the best way to establish a secure position is to agree upon a multi-step approach with a short-term, immediate peace process accompanied by a ceasefire and humanitarian corridors, followed by a long-term agreement on geopolitical issues. Such progress would allow Ukraine to both establish durable peace and work out a multilateral framework that would secure its security.
THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Diplomatically close relations between Russia and India continue to provide a valuable diplomatic channel for Russia, which has remained open to peace talks. Longstanding commercial and security arrangements between the two states could be weighted to aid the Russian-Ukrainian peace process, and also to improve their respective relations that while close, have stayed stagnant in recent years. It is an ideal moment for India to stipulate conditions in which Russia will be held in alignment with improvement in relations between the two countries and the strength of the Indian-Russian relationship. Progressing India’s relations with Russia would also reinvigorate India’s role as a major, third-way player in brokering international stability, setting the right precedent to mediate other international crises that take place around the world. Additionally, it could help bring support for a settlement from other countries in the Global South, which have been lacking in the recent years.
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: A nuanced push towards peace negotiations by the international community would help bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiable table together. The Next Century Foundation is aware of recent calls for peace talks, in particular by the Republic of France and the European Union. It also recognises the risk a nation taking on the onerous role of peace broker might be viewed as being one-sided towards either the West or Russia, and while there exist several possible nations within the Global South and the Middle East, many are occupied with the ongoing crisis in Gaza.
With this in mind we call upon the Republic of India, as a lead nation with a significant relationship with Russia and the West, to launch multilateral diplomatic efforts towards the convening of the peace process between Russia and Ukraine. An active step taken by India could have a major impact in fostering the long-term aim of geopolitical security.
CONCLUSION
Recent indications of war fatigue in Russia and Ukraine demonstrate the current failures of world leadership in addressing the need for a constructive effective dialogue between the two states that has not taken place in two years. If the past has proven anything, it would be that the adequate brokering presence of a country or organisation with stature and history strong enough to endure the test of time and amity, significant progress can be reached towards conflict resolution.
The Next Century Foundation believes that India, with its stature and position as a prominent nation of the global South with ties to both Russia and Ukraine, is in an ideal position to broker a peace process that allows for a long-term solution to be tabled. Such an initiative would allow for a path towards resolving an international conflict that could lead to instabilities across the region, especially when other lead nations who have their own crises to address and are unable to secure the trust of all parties concerned.
Image above by wal_172619 from Pixabay
