There are now five candidates for the Conservative Party leadership, down from the eleven who originally put themselves forward for consideration. As the race narrows, we can focus more on what the various candidates’ policies would be regarding the Middle East.
In terms of foreign policy, there are other issues that take prominence. A lot of the candidates have made an effort to reassure Ukraine that Britain will remain supportive of their continuing conflict against Russia. The spectre of Brexit still looms over the Conservative Party. One of Boris Johnson’s main slogans was that he would “Get Brexit Done”, yet questions remain over the Northern Ireland Protocol – for a party officially named the Conservative and Unionist Party, there are understandably serious concerns about any treaties that seem to damage the Union.
Current Middle Eastern Issues
However, there are several ways that the Middle East could return to prominence in British foreign policy conversations. The withdrawal from Afghanistan remains in recent memory, and the humanitarian crisis that is growing day by day there could lead to tricky questions of how to assist the people of Afghanistan whilst still maintaining distance from the Taliban government.
Related to the Ukraine Crisis, there are concerns about food supplies going to the Middle East. Ukraine exports a lot of grain to the Middle East, for example 81% of Lebanon’s wheat imports come from Ukraine. The conflict has affected these supply chains, which will make it more expensive for these countries to get vital food supplies. In countries that are already struggling with instability such as Lebanon and Libya, this could make the situation even worse.
Also related to the Ukraine Crisis has been the increasing oil prices. The Middle East produces 27% of the world’s oil, and so there are hopes that Middle Eastern countries as part of OPEC can produce more oil, and hopefully this will reduce the price of the commodity. This is part of Joe Biden’s focus as he currently tours the Middle East. Biden’s meeting with Saudi officials after previously saying he wanted to treat them as an international pariah suggests that a change in tone when engaging with Middle Eastern countries in relation to their human rights record might be the price Britain pays in return for cheaper oil. This could affect how Britain treats the Saudi involvement in the Yemeni Civil War, possibly making Britain less willing to criticise the Saudis.
The new PM will have to decide what path to follow in regards to foreign relations with Middle Eastern foreign policy – will Britain try to emulate the USA, European countries or try to forge its own path? This will also be relevant if Biden tries to resurrect the Iran Nuclear Deal, created in 2015 but dead since withdrawal of the USA in 2018 and Iran in 2019. Biden might struggle with the treaty due to the likely Republican gains in Congress in the 2022 midterm elections, which makes it difficult to rely on the USA, and there are of course divisions between Britain and the EU, as well as within the EU itself. A unified Western Middle Eastern policy seems unlikely.
With all this in mind, let’s look at the candidates and what they have said and done in the past, and how this could affect their Middle Eastern foreign policy if they became Prime Minister.
Rishi Sunak
The current candidate with the most support (101 MPs backing in the second round) is Rishi Sunak. Rishi Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer during the pandemic, and a lot of the criticism he has received from other candidates has been on his record as Chancellor. There have been criticisms of his national insurance increases, as well as ideological attacks on him not being ‘right-wing’ enough and that he supports ‘big-state’ taxation and spending. This means unfortunately he will likely focus on domestic issues and specifically the economy during the campaign.
However, we can look at his actions as Chancellor as indicators of how he would act as Prime Minister. Sunak was behind the UK Government’s abandonment of its commitment to spending 0.7% of its GDP on developmental aid. Cutting this budget will have a detrimental effect on countries that receive British foreign aid, such as Yemen and Afghanistan. As already mentioned, these countries are likely to struggle even more this year, and it is unlikely as a candidate he will commit to repealing these reforms as lowering foreign aid is a popular policy within the Conservative Party.
As Prime Minister he might receive enough public pressure to consider increasing aid to these countries – it is likely that this would be through a redistribution of foreign aid rather than an increase in the proportion of GDP given as foreign aid. Domestic focuses on post-Covid economic recovery might be a bigger economic focus than foreign aid.
As Prime Minister, Johnson supported a ‘Global Britain’ strategy, which Sunak supported as Chancellor. For example, Sunak announced eight new freeports for England, including the Solent and Liverpool. These low-tax areas are specifically designed to encourage foreign direct investment, including from affluent investors in the Middle East. Sunak is likely to continue this pro-business attitude, but there are questions over whether this will require turning a blind eye to human rights abuses in the Middle East.
Penny Mordaunt
The candidate who came second in the second round (83 MPs) is Penny Mordaunt. With the way the Conservative Leadership election works, Mordaunt will go onto the ballot voted on by Conservative Party members if she stays in the top two. This is encouraging news for her as polls by Conservative Home of Conservative Party members suggest she would win a head to head against Sunak, or any of the other candidates.
An MP since 2010, Mordaunt has voted on issues of war and peace and voted for military action in both Iraq and Syria, as well as for the continued deployment of British troops in Afghanistan. She has a military background as a Royal Navy Reservist and has a month-long stint as Defence Secretary. Mordaunt has vowed to increase defence spending, and it is likely she would favour a Hawkish foreign policy.
Mourdant was appointed Secretary for International Development on 9th November 2017, leaving in April 2018. She has made concerning statements since leaving the position, such as suggesting in June 2020 that some foreign aid should instead be spent on a replacement for the Royal Yacht Britannia. It is unlikely she would make serious adjustments to the current foreign aid policy changes implemented by Sunak.
Mourdant has received criticism from home and abroad. Mourdant backed Brexit during the 2016 referendum campaign, during which she made repeated false claims that the UK could not veto Turkey’s EU membership, which has led to one EU official describing her as ‘incompetent’. Relations with Turkey are important, especially in recent months when it has been reluctant to approve Sweden and Finland’s application to join NATO.
At home, she has received criticism from other Conservatives she has worked with. The most serious example of this was former chief Brexit negotiator David Frost saying she wasn’t “fully accountable” and that she “wouldn’t always deliver tough messages to the EU”. Whilst we must appreciate that Frost is biased as a Liz Truss supporter, it suggests that if Mourdant became Prime Minister she wouldn’t be the most capable when it comes to foreign affairs. Statements from her on international affairs seem to focus on the Commonwealth and East Asia, so the Middle East would unlikely be an area of focus for her.
Liz Truss
Liz Truss received the support of 64 MPs in the second round. Liz Truss is perhaps even more Hawkish than Mourdant, and has been backed by some of the prominent figures on the right of the Conservative Party, such as Jacob Rees Mogg and Nadine Dorries. Since becoming Foreign Secretary in September 2021, she has tried to style herself after Thatcher and has been aggressive in opposing Russia when it comes to the situation in Ukraine.
However, this has led to her pushing Middle Eastern issues to the periphery. Questioned by a committee of MPs, she highlighted the important status of the Gulf States as allies but declined to say whether she had questioned their governments on their arguably weak human rights records. Truss has been seen as the continuity candidate, aiming to carry on the policies of Johnson’s government. Therefore it would be likely that there is more of a focus on East Asia than the Middle East.
Kemi Badenoch
In fourth place in the second round with 49 MPs backing her was Kemi Badenoch. Badenoch is a rising star in the party, positioning herself as an ‘anti-woke’ candidate. When it comes to foreign affairs, she has said she ‘doesn’t care’ about colonialism. These attitudes could lead to worse relations with Middle Eastern countries, as many of them suffered from colonialism. Badenoch doesn’t believe ‘institutional racism’ exists in the UK, which might affect the way refugees are treated in the UK, many of whom coming from countries like Syria and Afghanistan.
Fighting climate change is not a priority for Badenoch, as she wants to scrap the UK’s commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions. A greater usage of fossil fuels could increase British trade in the Middle East. In general though, her foreign policy beliefs have yet to be discussed in detail. Badenoch seems more focussed on making a name for herself through fighting the ‘culture wars’, for example she has been criticised for making comments that have been described as transphobic. Her popularity with young Conservatives and her increased profile from her campaign means that it is unlikely that even if she loses the race this will be the last we see of Badenoch. It is possible she gets a more prominent position within the cabinet, one which enables her to get more international experience, and prepares her for another leadership campaign in years to come.
Tom Tugendhat
Tom Tugendhat came fifth in the second round with 32 MPs backing him. He has experience in the Middle East, having served as a soldier in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Tugendhat did a Master’s degree in Islamic studies and is fluent in Arabic, which would both be useful in working with Middle Eastern countries. Tugendhat came to national attention for his strong criticism of the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan, calling it the “biggest foreign policy disaster since Suez.” He is also a strong supporter of Israel, condemning the United Nations for its official criticism of Israeli settlements. He has suggested that other disputed territories should also receive attention, such as Western Sahara, Kashmir and Tibet.
Tugendhat has accused Iran of funding terrorists, which could make work on a Nuclear Deal difficult. He has also praised Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in 2018 for having a positive impact on his country and the world. Tugendhat also vocally opposed the cut in the foreign aid budget. Tugendhat is seen by some to be on the left of the Conservative Party, yet some of his statements on Israel and Saudi Arabia show an interesting approach to the Middle East. It is likely that a Tugendhat premiership would have him lead on the government’s policies in the region, his knowledge contributing to nuanced policies.
What is likely to happen?
It is important to note that a lot of this article is based on speculation. With the exception of Tugendhat, little is known about the candidates’ position on several key Middle Eastern issues. With Tugendhat in last place, and looking like the next most-likely candidate to be eliminated, Britain’s future Middle Eastern policies look uncertain, though the most likely outcome is something similar to that of the past couple of years.
There are three debates over the next couple of days between the remaining candidates before the next round of voting, and there is the possibility that the candidates’ will state clearer positions. It will be interesting to see if this happens due to Biden’s current visit, as there are fears that in the next couple of days certain countries might state their desire to move away from the West and towards a closer relationship with China. However, I think it is unlikely that the Middle East will feature as a prominent point of discussion.
The candidates most likely to win the leadership contest are Sunak and Mordaunt. Sunak’s foreign policy will likely be focussed around the economy, which could mean human rights is placed in the background for Middle Eastern diplomacy in order to get trade deals done. Mordaunt would have a hawkish foreign policy based around a strong defence, both at home and abroad, which could require closer relations to certain Middle Eastern countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Both attitudes would likely have a negative effect on the push for peace in conflicts like the Yemeni and the Israeli-Palestine conflicts.
