In the geopolitical world of alliances, May was a tense month for the Indo-Pacific region and especially for China. President Joe Biden made a bold statement during his visit to South Asia, at a press conference in Tokyo, in which he stated that the United States would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force. The statement was soon after backed down on by the US State Department and the White House. China replied to this statement by conducting military exercises close to Taiwan, a demonstration of its anger towards Biden’s words. In the course of Biden’s visit to South Asia, China and Russia conducted a joint aerial patrol over the Sea of Japan, East China Sea and the Western Pacific, another showcase of power from both countries. Biden’s visit was with the purpose of convening with the remaining members of the Quad (an alliance composed by Japan, the United States, India and Australia). The outcome of that summit is set to further stir the Indo-Pacific region and create aggravated tensions with China.
What is the Quad?
The Quad, which is officially known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue began after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as a joint effort from the four countries to provide humanitarian aid. After a few years being dormant, the Quad resurfaced in 2017 due to the emphases given by the Trump administration to counterweight China’s growing influence in the region. This momentum was supported by the rest of the governments from the Quad and included initiatives such as a joint maritime defence exercise in 2020. This was further reflected in statements made by the Quad. For example, in a statement in March of last year, the Quad demonstrated a willingness to make the Indo-Pacific region “free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion.” The political and diplomatic alignment of the Quad was further carried forward by the Biden administration through the organization of multiple summits (the Tokyo summit held in May was the third since Biden took power).
However, the Quad members are not focused solemnly on matters of diplomacy or on the interests of each member country. There is a high interest in the development of the Indo-Pacific region. For example, last year, focus was turned to supporting the COVAX initiative, with the Quad partners contributing with over five billion dollars to the initiative and delivering over 670 million vaccine doses, of which at least 265 million were to countries in the Indo-Pacific. In the summit that happened last month, the Quad vowed to deliver more than 50 billion dollars in infrastructure aid and development in the region over the next five years. Although these initiatives do not refer or relate directly with China, they demonstrate a constant focus on regionalism and provide hints of an attempt to even the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Despite being seemingly aligned at the moment, there are discrepancies within the Quad that could undermine its position facing China. India’s policy of “strategic autonomy” is still very present in Quad statements and meetings. The most recent example of this policy occurred when the Quad held a Summit in March and India did not condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine due to its military relationship with Russia, contrary to the remaining members who have sanctioned Russia. India has relations with countries that other Quad members oppose such as Russia and India clashes with Pakistan, a country that has relations with the US.
The reasons that make China feel threatened by the Quad
China perceives the quad as an “Asian Nato”. A designation frequently used that started when India invited a set of countries to participate in naval exercises in 2007. And from the point of view of China, there are reasons to feel threatened with the growth of the Quad. One of the reasons is the proximity between India and the US. As a rising regional power, India presents itself as a possible competitor for China in the Indo-Pacific. Another reason are the initiatives and financial investment of the Quad in the region as mentioned above. Nonetheless, perhaps the main reason that China has to feel threatened now, relates to the recent developments of the Quad. In their latest Summit, in May, the Quad launched the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA), a maritime surveillance plan. The goal of IPMDA is to track illegal fishing and other illegal activities in the Pacific Islands, Indian Ocean and in countries of Southeast Asia. Considering China’s behavior on the seas of the region, this initiative is a major concern for China. Its naval fleet is ranked as the worst behaved on the Global Illegal Fishing Index and their boats have been reported fishing without licenses at least 237 times between 2015 and 2019, according to the Environmental Justice Foundation. The dispute in the South China Sea and the military tension rising from China’s actions regarding it is another issue. Specially the control of disputed territories such as the Scarborough Shoal and the presence of military vessels in strategic islands like Thitu (also known as Pag-asa Island), despite the fact that the island belongs to the Philippines.
The IPMDA will raise the already existing tensions between the Quad and China. With the probable adherence of the countries of the Indo-Pacific to this initiative, it will likely flag various illegal maritime activities from China and bring consequences to it. As for the Quad, the group demonstrates how there is a reshape of the international system and it seems that the group is keen on continuing investing in the region and strengthening their diplomatic relationships having already agreed a next meeting to be held in 2023. It will be interesting to see China’s response to the IPMDA and future developments of this geopolitical dispute.
