A big opportunity to pursue peace in Ukraine has arisen, and we need to act now!
On the year anniversary of the war between Russia and Ukraine, China has issued a 12-point peace plan. The points are as follows:
- Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
- Abandoning the Cold War mentality
- Ceasing hostilities
- Resuming peace talks
- Resolving the humanitarian crisis
- Protecting civilians and POWs
- Keeping Nuclear power plants safe
- Reducing strategic risks
- Facilitating grain exports
- Stopping unilateral sanctions
- Keeping industrial and supply chains stable
- Promoting post-conflict reconstruction
This is the first time China has publicly declared a mediatory position in the conflict. Over the last year, it has remained impartial by abstaining from the UN General Assembly’s vote in favour of or against Russia sending armed forces into Ukraine. Although, it has cautiously maintained its economic relationship with Russia by non-aligning with economic sanctions placed down by that of Western European countries.
Previous peace resolutions:
China’s peace plan follows on from Volodymyr Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan which was announced at the G20 Summit in November 2022. His points are as follows:
- Radiation and nuclear safety
- Food security (protecting grain exports)
- Energy security
- Release of all prisoners and deportees
- Restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity
- Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities
- Justice, including the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes
- Prevention of ecocide, protection of the environment
- Prevention of escalation of conflict and building security architecture
- Signed document of confirmation of the war’s end
There are interesting parallels to be drawn here.
In comparison to China’s peace plan, there are similarities, such as the protection of grain exports, the protection of nuclear power stations, the protection of POWs and deportees. They also both address concerns of escalation.
Notably, Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan demands the withdrawal of Russian forces and for restoration of Ukraine’s state borders. Allied with proposing price restrictions on energy resources, in order to aid reconstruction of power infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks, Zelensky’s points are a demand for Russian surrender without compromise. Although, we mustn’t forget that Zelensky was willing to proceed to discuss any one of these points, not necessarily all of them as a whole!
A closer look at the 12-point plan:
China’s 12-point peace plan retains most of Zelensky’s points but adopts a more generalised approach.
With regards to sovereignty, Beijing reiterates international law and the principles of the UN Charter, but leaves the question of territory to be discussed at a future date if a ceasefire were to be implemented. A diversion away from President Zelensky’s demand for the restoration of original sovereign borders.
It then addresses the issue of ‘Cold War mentality’, validating security concerns of both Russia and Ukraine. It states that the ‘security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others; expanding or strengthening military blocs’. With Russia’s expansion into the four Ukrainian provinces, there are obvious signs displaying a Cold War style strategy to keep NATO and Russia separated. The peace plan specifically mentions that legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be ‘taken seriously’. A strong factor for Russia’s expansion was arguably aggravated by Ukraine’s request to join the NATO alliance. Age-old existential issues are now on the table!
How has Russia and Ukraine responded to the 12-point plan?
President Zelensky has spoken out on the proposals and has called for a summit with China’s leader Xi Jinping, although fears that China’s potential commitment to supplying weapons to Russia will not validate such a peace proposal. Der Spiegel has obtained intelligence that 100 strike drones could be delivered to Russia, from China, by April 2023. Currently, Zelensky is reiterating his 10-point plan, hoping that external parties to the conflict will still support it.
The Kremlin has stated that they have ‘paid a lot of attention’ to the plan but the situation with the conflict means that peaceful resolutions are not on the table at the moment.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
Even though this plan has not halted the conflict, this has hopefully opened everyone’s eyes to peace on the horizon. With China now declaring their willingness to work with the international community in resolving the Ukrainian crisis, a peace plan from a key international superpower is a step in the right direction and hopefully the way out of the conflict in Ukraine. With Russia and China being strategic allies, this might also be helpful in pushing Russia away from war.
There are several outcomes to this conflict; some more probable than others. If not a Ukrainian or Russian victory in the war alone, then a stalemate could ensue instead. This has previously been seen in history with contention over Kashmir between Pakistan and India that was settled with the Line of Control, mediated by the United Nations. This is an example of peace secured by compromise. It seems unlikely now, but if neither Russia nor Ukraine is to secure a victory in the conflict, then a compromise must be the solution, otherwise we prolong Ukraine to the Vietnam-style war it has seen for a year now.
Individual points can be addressed one-by-one to start with and then the root problem of sovereignty can be brought to the forefront. Where are the borders going to be redrawn if fighting is to end?
The Next Century Foundation has put forth a formula for Ukraine in a written statement to be considered at the 52nd Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council. The statement addresses issues of sovereignty – the focal point of tension within the Ukrainian war. We have proposed joint-de jure claims to sovereignty in the Donbas region – where most pro-Russian separatism had been witnessed since 2014. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia differ in the regard that they remain under Ukrainian sovereignty but greater autonomy for these provinces should be granted from Kyiv. These are ideas to be considered by all parties to the conflict.
What the 12-point peace plan does show is that China’s move towards mediation sets a positive example for the rest of the world. The world needs to consider this plan with seriousness, even if it is just one point at a time. Negotiations need to start now before this war escalates further because, the longer we wait, the greater loss of life the Ukraine war is to witness.
Click Here for the NCF’s Russia-Ukraine Written Statement to the UN Human Rights Council
