How do you solve a political conflict that’s been ongoing for close to a century? That is the question at the center of the Palestine-Israel conflict. We often read dismal headlines about how many lives have been taken by the latest outbreak of violence, such as in 2014 when “Protective Edge”, Israel’s operation in the Gaza Strip, resulted in one of the worst flare-ups of violence in decades. Other times, there are developments whose implications are harder to decipher. This was the case with the negotiation of the Abraham Accords in 2020, which saw the normalization of relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain. Now, a similar situation is taking place. As was reported in a recent NFC blog, HRH Mohammad Bin Salman’s recent interview sparked a debate about the implications of a Saudi-Israel deal for the Palestinians.
The question of whether any significant concessions will come out of the Saudi-Israel deal is complicated. Some may argue that MBS’s comments are purely a way to appease the American public and other Middle Eastern states’ concerns about Palestine. Quite possibly he is preparing the ground for recognition of Israel with his own Saudi population. Rapprochement is already underway if Israel’s private sector engagement in the development of Saudi Arabia’s new Neon mega-city is anything to go by. That said, achieving a win for the Palestinians in the midst of Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing administration seems unlikely. However, despite these concerns, this moment represents an important opportunity this may be for the Palestinians.
The much respected Peace Index recently conducted a survey to question the differing attitudes that Israel’s Jews and Arabs have across a range of issues. When asked about their support for a two-state solution 38% of the Jewish population and 69% of the Arab population were in favor. Despite not being the majority of the Jewish population, it was the option with the most support amongst Jewish respondents. Also, when the survey asked respondents whether the current protests in Israel, which are mostly about the judicial overhaul, should also deal with “an end to control over the Palestinians and the dispute with them,” 52% of the Jewish population and 81% of the Arab population were in favor. On the other hand, only 2% of young Saudi Arabians support normalizing relations with Israel, according to the Arab Youth Survey. It is likely that the Palestine issue is one of the causes of this apprehension. This could mean that public pressure may be a way of keeping both governments accountable for dealing with the Palestine issue in the negotiations. That said, support for Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman amongst young Saudis is considerable and any measure he promoted would not be likely to be questioned.
We also have to ask, what is the political cost of making this deal without securing concessions for the Palestinians? On the one hand, Saudi Arabia wants a defense pact with the U.S. out of the deal. This seems to be one of their priorities, even if it comes at the expense of significant concessions. If they do go forward with this whilst at the same time selling the Palestinians down the river, then it could weaken their credibility in the region and could affect their relationship with surrounding allies. And clearly, one priority for Saudi Arabia’s leadership is that Saudi Arabia takes a greater lead on both the regional and world stage.
On the other hand, the doubt regarding Israel’s refusal to grant concessions is well-founded given comments by some of Israel’s government officials. And, certainly that represents one of the biggest obstacles to Saudi-Israel recognition. That said, there have been multiple peace deals signed while a right-wing administration has been in office. In 1998, guided by the Clinton administration, the Wye Memorandum was signed between Netanyahu and former Palestinian leader Yassar Arafat. This deal was meant to restart the implementation of the Oslo Accords. Later, in 2003, Ariel Sharon endorsed the Road Map for Peace, a plan proposed by the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations. It was meant to open a dialogue with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian leader, for the creation of a Palestinian state. While it is true that there has not been appropriate follow-through in a lot of these types of deals over the years, there has still been a willingness to come to the table.
Despite the possible setbacks, Saudi Arabia should at least try to bring the Palestinian issue to the negotiating room in a significant way. Particularly, as this may be their last chance to do so.
