NCF Research officers Shristi Sharma and Nibha Rao Kondapalli have co-authored a blog on the upcoming Indian elections by analysing the current political climate in the country. Their blog aims to provide a detailed insight on the complexities of Indian Democracy. It also by implication draws attention to the vulnerable state of India’s precious democracy and the need for India’s citizens to exercise their vote, and opposition political parties to be better led, in order to preserve that democracy. 

The Indian General Elections 2024

The United States of America, the United Kingdom and India are all set to host their General Elections this year. The three countries will be engaging in extensive campaigning across different regions to elect their new leader who may be responsible for representing the citizens of these nations for the next four to five years.

Our focus is on India’s elections. The country, planning to go to polls in the first quarter of 2024, will be partaking in the world’s largest electoral exercise to elect their next Prime Minister. Prime Minister Narender Modi will be contesting for a third term in the office. If his party manages to secure a victory, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be in power for a third consecutive term. The Modi government seems to be quite confident about the upcoming General Elections and their belief has been further reinforced after the BJP swept three major state elections in December 2023.

With over 900 million registered voters in the world’s most populated country of 1.4 billion, India’s position as the world’s largest democracy influences its emergence as a key geopolitical player. This at a time when the West highlights India’s democratic credentials as a foundation for relations with the nation and as a safeguard against China’s ascent. India provides an alternative democratic paradigm to that of the West. Native-style political structures coexist alongside Westminster-style parliamentary democracy. As the nation has developed, so too has the character of Indian democracy.

Voters now favour good government, and not just those in the urban middle class. Though election-related concerns over foreign policy have grown in importance as India’s standing in the globe has increased. Elections have always been dominated by concerns about daily living. The current administration has changed this in two ways: first, by underlining India’s superior status in the international community and, second, by emphasizing its reputation as having a stringent security policy. Putting the country’s aggressive foreign policy first in the lead-up to the 2024 election is just one more strategy the leadership is using to gain support. The significance of political ideology in India is on the increase. The ideological component accounts for a large portion of the disparities in people’s perspectives on issues like minority rights, government interference, and Hindu nationalism.

Clashing Political Ideologies 

The impending Lok Sabha Elections of 2024 are a “battle of ideologies”. The opposition’s INDIA group and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the BJP will compete. There is a “vast” ideological gap between the two organizations. The current Prime Minister Narender Modi has been successful in ‘Presidentialising’ the Indian elections. Modi is the face of BJP and his popularity has had a considerable hand in BJP securing victory in recent state elections. It is not necessary for the Prime Minister to get heavily involved in state elections; however, Modi personally attended the election rallies and was at front and centre during the campaign season. This goes to show the impact his popularity has created. However, this is in sharp contrast to the beliefs of the main opposition party. The opposition claims that the eventual Prime Minister is chosen by the party or coalition that wins the majority of the seats in the Lok Sabha, as India is a parliamentary form of democracy. But the times have changed and so has the mindset of Indian citizens. Having a strong leader as the face of the party is imperative for the opposition in today’s world, if it wishes to be accepted in equal measure at the ballot box.

A fragmented opposition facilitated the BJP’s pursuit of a one-party majority in 2014 and 2019. Having learned from past setbacks, the opposition has established the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). The I.N.D.I.A. alliance is an amalgamation of 26 major state-level parties that have come together to thwart the enormous influence of the BJP, specifically Narender Modi, that has taken the country by storm in the last decade. However, this alliance faces major roadblocks on various fronts. Firstly, the opposition is unable to set agendas. Their lack of direction and tangible goals, beyond that of just trying to defeat the ruling party, is visible and could be a major factor in alienating potential voters. Secondly, the opposition has the potential to run into the problem of negotiations on the ‘seat sharing’ agreements between the coalition parties. Although the coalition is presenting itself as a united front dedicated to securing a victory in the Lok Sabha elections, the reality is slightly different. Many parties under the INDIA alliance are bitter enemies when it comes to state-level elections. In such a scenario, it will be quite a difficult task for the coalition to not only reach a ‘seat-sharing’ agreement but also prove itself to be a worthy opponent to the ruling party. If the opposition can overcome all these internal disputes, it stands a solid chance of challenging the ruling party. A unified opposition would prove detrimental for the BJP, as unlike in the past it won’t be able to utilize the fragmentation in the opposition to its benefit.

The BJP is still in the lead as the struggle for 2024 goes on, while the opposition, still stung by the outcomes of the state elections, is trying to come up with a clear yet adaptable political narrative. The struggle to win the loyalty of the poorest sector of society, the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who make up the biggest single voter bloc in India and probably more than 40% of the population, is a very important element to take into account. The concept dubbed “new welfarism,” in which the government has increased investments in the public distribution of private goods like gas cylinders (a clean source of cooking fuel), toilets, bank accounts and electricity connections, is a crucial component of the Modi government’s economic agenda.

India on the World Stage

It is more difficult to pinpoint the last issue influencing the 2024 elections: India’s changing global position. Political scientists who have studied India in the past have made a distinction between “elite” and “mass” concerns. While mass issues deal with issues that directly affect everyday life, such as welfare benefits, jobs and employment, and inflation, elite issues focus on topics like trade policy, foreign policy, and national security. But circumstances by themselves may not always account for the influence of foreign policy on voting behaviour. There is a general belief that Modi has improved India’s standing internationally and secured the nation’s place at the top table. The administration has acknowledged that domestic political salience affects how the world views India, as seen by its year-long, high-profile marketing effort commemorating its first G20 chairmanship. Furthermore, The nation has landed on the moon for the fourth time, overtook China to become the most populous nation on the globe, and eclipsed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in the world.

The long-standing pledge made by New Delhi to “strategic autonomy”, or “omni-alignment” is being tested in light of the deteriorating ties between major countries, particularly those between the US and China and Russia and the West. There are geopolitical obstacles to New Delhi’s drive for the Global South to play a bigger role. India is trying to avoid coming out as a supporter of an anti-Western agenda while also pushing for a fairer allocation of power within the international system.

This inclusive and non-confrontational strategy is under threat in the context of a possibly divided and increasingly polarized international order. This year, the nation’s economy is predicted to develop at the quickest rate among major economies, with China’s growth slowing. India can gain from the competition between the US and China as both nations work to separate their supply chains from China, especially in fields that include cutting-edge and vital technology.

Given this, it is appropriate to consider India’s G20 presidency a significant turning point for a notable developing world power. However, it will also highlight the challenges India will have in establishing and preserving strategic autonomy in a divided globe

A Better Future

Despite all odds the opposition does have a few variables that could work in its favour. Contrary to popular belief the Muslim voting pattern in India has been mostly fragmented. Even though studies show that this fragmentation became a little consolidated after the 2019 general elections there are still many divisions within the community. The opposition could capitalise on these little differences and further influence this particular community.

The Modi administration has put in a lot of effort to propagate the idea that India is now a “leading” power rather than just a “balancing” one. Voters frequently comment that Modi has “put India on the map” these days. This puts the opposition at a disadvantage. It does not have the agenda-setting authority that comes with being in office. Furthermore, if people think that the opposition is deliberately working against the nation, then its criticism of the government runs the danger of backfiring.

Whether the various opposition groupings can create a forward-looking political narrative that is both persuasive and adaptable is the question. There is a long way to go for the opposition, and time is not on its side.