NCF Research Officer, Aaliya Boakye, discusses the latest updates on Gaza, outlining the fallout from the collapse of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Gaza, the influence of the US in the possible ethnic cleansing of Gaza of its Palestinians, the return of Israel’s Security Minister Ben Gvir and the international response to resumption of war in Gaza.
Famine hits Gaza
Hunger has hit hard in Gaza as all 25 bakeries supported by the World Food Programme have been forced to halt production in the last few days. This is a result of Israel’s blockade that is preventing the entry of flour and fuel. Chairman of the Bakery Owners Association in Gaza, Abed Al-Ajrami, has said the, “Repercussions from the closure of bakeries will be very hard on citizens as they have no alternative to resort to.” Next Century Foundation Secretary General, William Morris, stated that, “Unless Israel allows substantial supplies of flour into Gaza within the next 24 hours, this will amount to Israel’s being culpable for an act deliberately calculated to cause ethnic cleansing”.
UNRWA have raised serious concerns, stating that ‘The progress we made as an aid system over the last six weeks of the ceasefire is being reversed’ as the period since the resumption of strikes on Tuesday 18th March marks the longest period in which no supplies have entered Gaza. UNRWA worker Sam Rose stated on Wednesday 26th March that “The situation on the ground in Gaza is unspeakable”.
Cease fire negotiations
Israel said on 29 March it conveyed to the mediators a counter-proposal in full coordination with the United States, after Hamas agreed to a proposal it received from mediators Egypt and Qatar. On 2 April Hamas announced that it would not respond to Israel’s counter proposal.
Israel’s counter proposal is for the release of ten Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, plus the release of soldier Idan Alexander as a tribute to US President Donald Trump.
The offer is for a 40-day ceasefire after which bombing may be resumed if there is no new agreement. After five days, Hamas is to reveal the status of all its captives, whether alive or dead. After ten days, 16 of the dead hostages will be released.
Israel estimates 59 Israeli hostages remain in Gaza, 24 who are alive and 35 who have died.
The Current Situation
The current situation is that Hamas agreed to an Egyptian proposal to release five living hostages in exchange for a 50 day ceasefire in Gaza on Saturday 29th March. However this did not satisfy Israel’s demands, so they made the counteroffer outlined above in cooperation with the US, asking for a minimum of 10 living hostages to resume the ceasefire. According to Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel is continuing its negotiations with Hamas ‘under fire’ because ‘the combination of military and diplomatic pressure is the only thing that has worked’. Therefore Israel’s cabinet voted on March 29th, to increase military pressure on Hamas and ensure their compliance.
On Sunday March 30th, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated Israel is ready to discuss the final stage of a ceasefire deal. Which he describes as ‘Hamas relinquishing their weapons, their leaders being allowed to leave Gaza and Israel taking control of security in the area’. Finally the Prime Minister cited President Trump’s voluntary migration plan as a next step for Gaza, which involves relocating remaining Palestinians to surrounding countries and the US taking control of the territory.
As of March 31st, Israel’s army have issued a new displacement order for residents in several areas of northern Gaza, including Beit Hanoon and Beit Lahiya. Palestinians are also fleeing the southern city of Rafah due to evacuation orders.
In other news, Eid celebrations in Palestine have been limited as Israel imposed tough restrictions on worshippers crossing into East Jerusalem to pray at the Al-Aqsa mosque.
On Wednesday 2nd April, Defence Minister Israel Katz, said Israel is expanding into Palestinian territory to ‘crush and clear the area’ and plans to seize ‘large parts of Gaza’ to increase Israel’s security zones. While his statement did not outline what specific areas Israel intends to seize, evacuation orders are still in place for much of Gaza.
The Original agreed ceasefire deal
Hamas and Israel had previously agreed to a ceasefire deal on January 19th 2025, in a joint effort to bring permanent peace to the Gaza Strip and West Bank that the world has long anticipated.
This ceasefire deal consisted of three phases, the first being a hostage exchange with Hamas agreeing to release the twenty five living and eight deceased Israel hostages, in turn Israel would release nineteen hundred Palestinian prisoners. Israel also agreed to allowing international aid lorries to enter and leave populated areas of Gaza.
The second phase envisioned that a permanent ceasefire would be implemented, with Hamas agreeing to release all remaining hostages and exchange them for more Palestinian prisoners. The most important aspect of this phase was that Israel agreed its troops would make a complete withdrawal from Gaza and bring an end to fighting in the region. However, upon the completion of the first stage of the ceasefire deal on March 1st, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu stated he agreed with US envoy Steve Witcoff to an extension of the first ceasefire stage to discuss the terms of the second phase.
Interim discussions
Prime Minister Netanyahu outlined a new deal which stated Hamas should release half of the fifty nine remaining hostages in return for a 50 day ceasefire extension. Hamas rejected this notion, as this was a different proposal to the original ceasefire deal they had already agreed. Hamas offered to release an American-Israel captive and the bodies of four other hostages if this meant the second phase could begin, but this was dismissed as ‘Psychological warfare’ by Israel.
Hamas called this a veiled attempt by Israel to maintain its presence in Gaza, removing as many Palestinians as possible and delaying a ceasefire deal. Furthermore, they claimed that this decision by Israel was a ‘Blatant violation of all international and humanitarian conventions’, as well as risking the lives of Israel’s remaining captives in Gaza. Hamas believe that Israel never had a real interest in actually removing its troops from Gaza, only temporarily aligning with this deal to appear diplomatic. This is because Israel refused to clearly state in writing that it would not resume hostilities after the first phase in initial negotiations; with Hamas only receiving verbal confirmation from the US, Qatar and Egypt, who were helping broker this ceasefire deal.
Israel then paused access to food imports and humanitarian aid in Gaza, then proceeded to cut off electricity, before launching attacks on Gaza on March 18th. The attacks killed more than 400 Palestinians, including 263 women and children, making it one of the deadliest in the Gaza war. Using the codename Operation Might and Sword, Israel said it carried out this attack in coordination with the United States.
Israel claimed that Hamas was rearming and planning new attacks, so it had to act preemptively and resume its attacks on Gaza. This is an accusation that Hamas strongly denied.
This resumption came with escalated attacks right across Palestine, with air strikes being targeted at civilian areas like refugee camps in the West Bank, as well as built up neighbourhoods in Gaza, makeshift schools and residential buildings where people were finding shelter.
Disarming Hamas using “bubbles”
The new strategy goes further with Israel’s ‘new ground military operation’ evacuating women, children and vetted non-combatants from neighbourhoods into “humanitarian bubbles”, while forcing those who do not immediately comply into submission by laying siege.
Defence Minister, Israel Katz, doubled down, saying on Friday 21st March that Israel will continue to temporarily occupy (and go to the extent of annexing) parts of Gaza if Hamas does not make concessions and agree to Israel’s terms, particularly regarding the hostages.
Israel’s public viewpoint
By transporting Palestinians to “humanitarian bubbles”, cutting off access to humanitarian aid and escalating attacks, Israel is attempting to force Hamas into submission.
Data from a March 2025 peace index shows sixty six percent of Israel’s public believe the government’s main objective should be ensuring the safe return of the hostages instead of the elimination of Hamas. This is an opinion that fifty four percent of government supporters and eighty seven percent of opposition supporters advocate.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian death toll has risen to over 50,000 and unfortunately this number is likely to be much higher in reality; as these figures only reflect bodies that have been found and do not account for people missing, presumed dead.
Palestinian Response
Just this past week, hundreds of Palestinians took to the streets in Beit Lahia and Deir al-Balah protesting against Hamas and the impact of its war with Israel on the people of Gaza. Protesters also chanted against Qatar’s Aljazeera news channel.
The demonstrators are stating that while Israel is the main bearer of responsibility for war escalating to this point, Hamas is also at fault and is responsible for Palestinian oppression. Protestors are claiming that ‘Hamas does not represent all the Palestinian people’ and beg for an end to this bloodshed that has killed too many of their loved ones.
Regarding a post-war period, when Palestinians were asked what preferred security arrangements should be observed in Gaza, thirty eight percent of Arab respondents called for international forces to control Gaza and twenty nine percent asking for the Palestinian Authority’s control.
The Hamas Government Media Office downplayed the protests, stating this does not reflect the national position but is rather a result of unprecedented pressure Israel’s intensified attacks have placed on Gaza. Senior Hamas official Basem Naim stated that ‘demonstrations are expected from people facing extermination, against war and destruction.’
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu praised these demonstrations. He stated that they show his policy to be successful and will lead to Hamas meeting their demands, releasing all remaining hostages.
These anti-Hamas demonstrations appear to show that the people of Gaza are tired of HAmas leadership, they simply want their safety to be assured, their families safe at last and the opportunity to rebuild what’s left of their communities. That said, elements loyal to the Fatah opposition may be encouraging the unrest.
Israel’s Domestic Politics
With the resumption of attacks on Gaza, Israel‘s former national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir has been reappointed. Back in January Gvir resigned in protest over a ceasefire deal being formed with Hamas, stating any deal is a ‘surrender to terror’ deal that violates all ideological lines and ruins Israel’s war goals. Further asserting that Israel must force the release of their hostages from Hamas by completely stopping electricity, water and humanitarian aid from entering Gaza.
Whilst in government Gvir clashed with Prime Minister Netanyahu on numerous occasions but despite their disagreements, the departure of Gvir and two other ministers from the Jewish Power Party weakened Netanyahu’s coalition government, leaving him with a small majority. This meant in the event that more high profile ministers followed, Netanyahu’s government could collapse and trigger an election.
For an unpopular Netanyahu, who is facing calls for his resignation from Israel’s public as well as major anti-government demonstrations protesting Israel’s attacks on Gaza and the unjustified firing of Shin Bet security head Ronen Bar, an election would likely lead to his ousting from government.
When Israel’s citizens were asked about their ideal security arrangements for Gaza, they proved to be divided based on their political affiliations. With right-wing respondents supporting their Prime Minister, being in favour of Israel exerting full control over Gaza, with seventy seven percent calling for security governance. Whereas on the other side of the political spectrum, sixty two percent of left-wing respondents align with Arab respondents and favour international forces governing Gaza; sixty four percent calling for a civilian administration.
The return of Ben Gvir sustains Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political survival and prevents the possible fall of his government.
Gvir has already fuelled tensions between Hamas and Israel, being condemned by Hamas for visiting the Al-Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem on April 1st. Hamas called his visit ‘provocative and dangerous escalation, further calling for ‘youth in the West Bank to escalate their confrontation… in defence of our land and our sanctities, foremost among them the blessed Al—Aqsa mosque.’
Many officials who oppose Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly have been at risk of dismissal, such as Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara. This comes after she opposed the decision to dismiss Ronen Bar, which many viewed as retaliation against Shin Bet for investigating the office of the Prime Minister for accepting bribes from Qatar and criticising Premier Netanyahu for helping create the conditions for Hamas attacks on Israel.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara is also the most senior legal official in Israel, so the vote of no-confidence against her is viewed as a broader attempt by Prime Minister Netanyahu to weaken judicial opposition to the government. This continued undermining of judicial authority by Prime Minister Netanyahu has been challenged by the Supreme Court, as he stands accused of having a vendetta against officials who are critical of him or attempt to hold him accountable.
It is important to note, Prime Minister Netanyahu has tried to overhaul changes to the judiciary, claiming it was becoming too interventionist and interfering with legislation. However, the Supreme Court is the only body that provides checks and balance on Israel’s executive branch.
This removal of the separation of powers is slowly coming to fruition, as Israel’s parliament passed legislation on Thursday 27th March to expand political control over judge appointments. This law passed despite protests denouncing proposed changes to the judiciary, citizens claiming this along with the unprecedented firings of senior officials this critically wounds Israel’s democracy.
US influence
President Donald Trump is publicly voicing his vision for the future of Gaza. He suggested that all remaining Palestinians should be relocated to neighbouring countries like Egypt or Jordan. Claiming that Gaza should ultimately be under US control and be redeveloped into the ‘riviera of the middle east’.
This plan speaks to the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from their homes.
Despite backlash from the international community, relocation for Palestinians is an idea that appeals to Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, as he called President Trump’s comments innovative and worth exploring as a method to remove Gaza as a potential threat to Israel’s security. Stating Syria would be an ideal place for all remaining Palestinians to be transported to.
Interestingly, ninety percent of right-wing respondents to the recent poll and fifty percent of centrists respondents support the idea of Israel forcing the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza.
Data from a March 2025 peace index suggest that an explanation for such high support for evacuating Gaza is the clear support for Israel provided by the Trump administration, as fifty four percent of Israel’s public believes that President Trump’s public view has increased the possibility of annexing Jewish settlements in the West Bank. This figure marks a notable increase from 25% of respondents asked the same question whilst former President Biden was in office.
United Nations special rapporteur Francesca Albanese reiterates the importance of universal human rights, stating the international community needs no more warnings, “Israel’s occupation of Palestine has exposed the breaking of the most fundamental human rights and we will miss human rights very much when they are no longer able to protect us.”
International community
The resumption of Israel’s strikes on Gaza has generated response from the global community.
Arab countries such as Egypt and Qatar state Israel’s strikes are a ‘Flagrant violation’ of the ceasefire that threat the stability of the entire Middle East and that this equates to a policy of genocide against the Palestinian population”. Iran places blame with the United States, saying it is directly responsible for the continuation of genocide in Palestine, as they advocate for human rights while simultaneously funding and defending Israel’s right to defend itself knowing the immense human cost.
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated he ‘strongly appeals for the ceasefire to be respected, for unimpeded humanitarian assistance to be reestablished and for the remaining hostages to be released unconditionally.’
The Council on American-Islamic Relations state that ‘Netanyahu would clearly rather massacre Palestinian children in refugee camps than risk the disintegration of his cabinet by exchanging all those held by both sides and permanently ending the genocidal war, as required by the ceasefire agreement that President Trump helped broker and that must be salvaged’.
However most Western nations have been very cautious in their criticism of Israel, indeed the British Foreign Secretary was forced by Sir Keir Starmer, Britain’s premier, to retract remarks that the British premier felt over critical of Israel.
Next Steps
The current situation is devastating.
A response from the international community is vital if we want to even envision a future for Gaza. The moral implications alone make even the mere suggestion that Palestinians in Gaza should be forced to permanently leave their homes inconceivable and inhumane.
The power of global actors provides the best chance at ensuring a permanent ceasefire deal that will lead to the end of this war. Although the return of Ben Gvir to Israel’s coalition government makes this prospect seemingly harder to accomplish, all strides must be made to bring a permanent ceasefire to Palestine.
Picture by TexBr and Pixabay
