Israel has occupied East Jerusalem since the Middle East War in 1967 and regards the entire city as its capital, although this is not recognised by much of the international community. The Palestinians claim East Jerusalem as their capital of their future state. Israel has restricted activities related to the Palestinian Authority (PA) in East Jerusalem as a violation of Israeli sovereignty. Israel says it allows Palestinian social, economic and education institutions but prevents Palestinian political activity in Jerusalem. Most Palestinians in East Jerusalem have Israeli residency but vote in Palestinian elections.
Electoral Activity since 2005
The Palestinian Authority is an exclusionary institution which was designed to ‘prop’ up particular groups while side-lining large swaths of Palestinian society that were critical of pursuing a peace agreement under the Oslo accords.
President Mahmoud Abbas was elected in 2005 for a 4-year term, however this was extended as a result of the division of the country and Israel making political activity illegal in East Jerusalem made holding elections impossible. He used an interpretation of the ‘Basic Law’ and ‘Election law’ to extend his term for a year so he could align the presidential and parliamentary elections. On 16th December 2009, the leadership of the Palestinian Central Council announced an indefinite extension of Abbas presidential term.
In 2021, Abbas announced parliamentary and presidential election would take place in May 2021, the first in 15 years in an effort to heal long standing internal divisions and as a response to the criticism of the democratic legitimacy of Palestinian political institutions. In the run up to the elections, some 93% of eligible voters in Gaza and the West Bank registered to vote in the well overdue elections.
However, the legislative election was postponed indefinitely on April 29th 2021 by Abbas amid a dispute over voting rights stating that the election would only take place once Israel allowed Palestinians to vote in East Jerusalem. Many describe this as simply an ‘excuse’ to avoid a staggering lose of power to Hama’s, as Abbas’s Fatah party was expected to suffer a humiliating defeat. Polls showed that 80% of Palestinians want Abbas to resign.
The electoral system that was to be used would be a change from the 2006 elections which was a proportional/district hybrid model. The system to be used is soley proportional and would deprive any single Palestinian faction from wining the majority of seats in the legislature and forming their own government.
International interests in Palestinian elections
The election of a new Palestinian president and Prime Minister could pave the way for new peace negotiations with Israel for the creation of a Palestinian State. But what are the interests of the international community in possibly Palestinian elections?
There is no doubt that the elections scheduled in 2021 were because of American and European pressure. The European Union threatened to end the financial support it provides to Ramallah if the elections were cancelled.
The EU publicly affirmed support for the scheduled Palestinian elections and recommended Israel to do the same. However, the EU needed to commit to fair and free elections and any outcome, with their refusal to recognise Hama’s victory in 2006 and sanctioning and undermining of the group, causing the outbreak of the short but violent Palestinian Civil war in 2007 which resulted in Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah in control of the PA and the West Bank. These factions deepened ruining any chance of prospects of peace with Israel whilst the EU put a no-contact policy with Hamas losing the ability to influence them positively.
United States of America
The Biden Administration is a strong supporter of democracy and free elections, and is thought to be restoring the relations, damaged by Trump, with the Palestinian Authority and helping the Palestinian people. However, in 2006 the George W Bush administration backed Fatah to reject their loss of the legislative elections and expel Hamas from government. Fatah may be hoping that the United States back them once again if Hama’s were to achieve an electoral victory to stay in power. Despite this, the US have been prioritising domestic politics and turning to other influential actors to take control of the peace process.
Egypt and Jordan
Despite both countries declared their support for the 2021 elections and vowed to help whatever necessary to help the elections pass. However, they may not have had pure intentions, fearing a repeat of the 2006 vote when Hamas won in Gaza which led to an armed conflict with Fatah. If this happened again would destabilise Egyptian and Jordanian affairs and disrupt the current attempt to reinvigorate the ties with the United States.
Egypt’s current government gained power in a military coup against a Brotherhood-led government. Egypt sees Hama’s as a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and a Hama’s electoral victory in Palestine could make it more immune to Cairo’s pressure. They would gain electoral legitimacy and could possibly reinvigorate the Brotherhood in Egypt, causing major issues for the Egyptian government. Nevertheless, Egypt has been forced to cooperate with neighbouring Hama’s in Gaza. Despite the lack of ideological similarities, Egypt has been granted everything they wanted from Hama’s from border security to the eradication if radical Islamists and are able to pressure Hama’s with the control of the Rafah crossing from Egypt to Gaza. However, they may lose this bargaining power if Hama’s gains control of the West Bank, significantly reducing their influence and control over security issues.
Jordan views the Hama’s party as a terrorist organisation and the election of them to parliament is one of their fears. The biggest concern for the Jordanian government is Hama’s gaining power in the West Bank, which is an issue of national security and border control. Alongside the fear of a stronger Hama’s, they are worried about instability in Palestine after the election, and how its own population would react to a Hama’s victory. However, the government see the election as an issue of national security which is bigger than the threat of Hama’s.
Future elections?
When or if Palestine holds elections in the near future is a relative unknown, with the Israeli’s refusing the grant the PA to hold ballots in East Jerusalem the Palestinians may never be able to vote in Jerusalem until there is a peace agreement. There is no doubt that international actors will have a massive interest in the results of the next presidential and legislative elections.
