Iran has a turbulent relationship with its neighbours and the wider international community, sustained by recent regional and global developments.
Iran and Afghanistan
Iran and Afghanistan have a complex relationship, from interdependence surrounding water, fuel and trade, to severe tensions regarding governance, religion, and migration, particularly following the withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan and subsequent Taliban rule. Although Iran cheered the exit of Western forces from Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban’s rise to power proves another severe challenge in the difficult relationship between Iran and Afghanistan.
Three key tensions include Iran’s objective of protecting Shiite interests in Afghanistan, Iran not recognising the government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and the Afghan migrant influx in Iran and their treatment.
Iran is ruled by a Shiite establishment in what is essentially a theocracy, while the Taliban is a radical Sunni movement, putting the two governments at fundamental odds. Strains have been put on Iran and Afghanistan’s relationship because Iran does not recognise the government of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and violence against Shiite and Persian communities in Afghanistan furthers hostilities between the states. Iran has said that it will not formally recognise the Taliban for as long as Taliban violence against Shiite and Persian Afghans continue. Nonetheless, Iran has been making ties with ‘Tehran-friendly Taliban factions’, creating hope for a more positive relationship. Furthermore, President Raisi of Iran has claimed that US ‘defeat’ in Afghanistan is an opportunity for durable peace.
Another point of tension between the states is the number of Afghan refugees who cross into Iran, and Iran’s treatment of these migrants. Iran hosts over 3.6 million Afghan refugees, with hundreds of thousands escaping to Iran following the Taliban takeover in August 2021. This large influx has caused clashes between Iran’s borer forces and Afghanistan’s Taliban. An Iranian border guard was killed at the Milak border crossing in June 2022, but Iran and Afghanistan have competing claims as to the motivation for this attack. Clashes between Taliban forces and Iranian border guards have also led to Iran closing border-crossings with Afghanistan, such as in Islam Qala-Dogharoun in April 2022.
Beyond the borders, the refugee influx is putting strains on Iran-Afghanistan relations because of the ‘anti-Afghan sentiment’ in Iran. This has damaged Iran and Afghanistan’s relationship by triggering anti-Iran protests in Afghanistan, with TOLO News in Kabul reporting that some Afghan refugees have returned home after facing harassment in Iran. The International Organisation for Migration has said that Iran has begun deporting thousands of refugees back to Afghanistan – a trend likely escalated by the economic hardship faced by Iranians following the US’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said in May that the two nations will remain close despite some ‘trying to create a wave of Iranophobia in Afghanistan and a fear of Afghans in Iran’.
Iran and the International Community
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed in 2015 by Iran, the EU, and the P5+1 (the UN Security Council: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States; plus Germany). It greatly restricted Iran’s nuclear program and eased sanctions on the country. This was a significant positive step in building diplomatic relations between Iran and the West. However, in 2018 President Trump withdrew the US from the deal, citing that it did not limit Iran’s missile program and regional influence – an aspect beyond the purview of the agreement. In response, Iran began ignoring limitations on its nuclear program.
Although President Biden has a more open approach to the deal, claiming the US will return to the JCPOA should Iran also comply, little progress has been made in the stop-and-go talks. This has compromised already very limited diplomatic relations between the states, with talks being indirect and the US holding very low expectations. The latest talks have ended without a breakthrough, with the US claiming Iran displays no urgency and has failed for months to make a decision, while Iran claims that the US is not taking the pathways it has opened for a return to its 2015 commitments.
Iran, following the Doha talks as of the 30th of June 2022, maintains that the JCPOA is the ‘best option with no alternatives’, and that the US’s withdrawal and subsequent implementation of sanctions under President Trump was illegal. Iran views President Biden’s government as an extension of Trump’s, given its adoption of the sanction-heavy Maximum Pressure campaign. Iran calls for the US to abandon this Maximum Pressure campaign in favour of restoring the JCPOA, claiming to be open to negotiations to end the deadlock.
This dispute between the US and Iran has wider impacts on Iran’s foreign relations with the West. The P5+1 were at the heart of the JCPOA negotiations, and the EU also played a role – most recently in coordinating the failed talks in Doha at the end of June. The breakdown of the deal has negative implications for these actors too. For as long as the JCPOA or any other nuclear deal is absent, Iran’s foreign relations will be compromised.
These strained relations are also regional. Saudi Arabia has signalled that it will become a nuclear state should Iran successfully detonate a nuclear weapon. Having said this, Iran has always claimed to have absolutely no interest in having nuclear weapons.
