The Next Century Foundation (NCF) expresses its deep concern at the current political situation in Iraq. Nine months on from elections which failed to deliver a new president or prime minister, there is continued dispute between the two largest political blocs which has led to a boycott of parliament and the people of Iraq facing the economic consequences.

Potential candidates for leadership

With public disquiet putting increasing pressure on the process of government formation, recent dialogue has taken important steps away from the political stalemate. There is hope that these changes can lead to the establishment of a government and subsequent implementation of reformed domestic and foreign policy.

Iraq is governed by both a president, as head of state, and a prime minister, as head of government. Iraq allocates the presidency to a Kurd if a suitable candidate is agreed by the political parties. At this time, the candidates for presidency include Rebar Ahmed of the Kurdish Regional Government, or the current President of Iraq, Barham Salih, from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

The prime minister is determined after the outcome of the parliamentary general election. The leader of the largest party in Parliament forms and heads the new government however, they cannot take full political responsibility until they have secured a majority. The political deadlock over forming the next government in Iraq stems from disputes between the two main Shia factions and their battle for dominance: the Coordination Framework (a pro-Iran coalition comprised of the Fatah alliance, the State of Law coalition, the Hikma party and the Nasr alliance) and the Homeland Alliance (composed of the Sadrist Movement, the Sunni sovereignty Alliance and the Kurdistan Democratic Party). Neither of these two factions can amass enough support to reach a majority, requiring 220 MPs votes out of the 329 MPs, and therefore elect a prime minister. There is urgent need for rapprochement between these two factions to prevent Shiite civil war due to the exponential rise in tensions.

Muqtada al-Sadr is the leader of the Sadrist Movement, the party emerging from the October elections with 73 seats, the largest number of seats in Iraq’s parliament and a member of the Homeland Alliance. Despite his push to establish a majority, al-Sadr failed to persuade Shia groups to join his alliance. This led to his decision to withdraw his MPs from parliament in a bid to break the gridlock and deflect the blame for the delay in government formation. Resultantly, Mohammad Jaafar al-Sadr, the candidate previously chosen by the party for the position of prime minister, withdrew his nomination when the bloc resigned en-masse on June 12^th.

Another potential candidate, current Prime Minister of Iraq Mustafa al-Kadhimi, also lost his biggest political backers due to the resignation of the Sadrist MPs.

The other main faction, the Coordination Framework, has also proposed candidates from parties within the coalition. Hadi al-Amiri, head of Fatah, looked a potential candidate for the position. Despite this, Al-Amiri has denied the rumours that he would run for Iraq’s premiership. Meanwhile, Qasim al-Araji, a leading figure in the Badr organisation, has also withdrawn from the race to replace the caretaker prime minister.

Nouri al-Maliki, former prime minister and secretary-general of the Shiite Dawa party, coming second to Sadr in the recent elections, has significant political influence. Despite this, due to the heavy criticism he faces for his cooperation with the USA and friction with Sunnis, the likelihood of him securing enough support for leadership has been greatly diminished. Notably, the leaders of the Coordination Framework have nominated Mohammad Shaya’a al-Sudani, a prominent leader in the Dawa party, as candidate for the position of Iraq’s prime minister. This nomination decision has substantial political backing, being supported by both the PUK and the State of Law coalition.

At this point, the best outcome would be the establishment of a coalition government with the factions moving past their ideological differences towards rapprochement for the good of Iraq, removing the need to secure a majority in parliament after further elections. To prevent a Shiite civil war, conversations of cooperation need to begin now. The Coordination Framework has called on political parties to engage in dialogue to end this period of political limbo in forming the new government in Iraq.

Political gridlock and the need for new elections 

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein as President of Iraq in 2003, the country has lurched from crisis to crisis. 19 years and six general elections later, failure to form a coalition government or elect a president has left Iraq in political limbo.

The latest election in October 2021 was a result of mass protests against corruption, known as the Tishreen movement. With the failure of Iraq’s parliament to establish a majority government after these elections, the current acting prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi remains in place and continues to run a caretaker government, destabilising the country and the legitimacy of the state. The largest of the elected political blocs, the Sadrist Movement, has withdrawn from parliament, frustrated with the hurdles that are in the way of forming a majority government. This has resulted in the candidates placed second taking the seats of those that had been voted in by the electorate under the terms of Iraq’s constitution, ironically giving the lead position to the second place group of al-Maliki. New elections are essential to prevent further political fractures and move towards the establishment of a longer-term democratic government in power.

Widespread public dissatisfaction is fervent due to on-going economic challenges and the increasing problem of climate change alongside protests against corruption and foreign influence. These feelings have only been exacerbated by the recent Turkish airstrikes on civilians in Iraq, killing 8 in the village of Parakh. The explosive atmosphere in Iraq is further highlighted by the near-assassination of caretaker prime minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in November, a clear indicator of the need for political reform. All this makes it increasingly likely there will be further unrest.

Ultimately, the situation in Iraq, both politically and socially, is desperate. The NCF calls for greater urgency to resolve this political crisis. As a failed state ruled by a caretaker government on the break of civil war, it is essential that there is rapprochement between the major factions and new elections are called for at the earliest opportunity in order to give rise to greater peace and security through the establishment of a government. The inability to form a government or deal with national challenges is destroying the legitimacy of the state and further political impasse risks triggering popular protests.