The image used above of this river in Kurdistan from Wria Mahmood was taken six years ago when water levels were higher. Things now are more like the scene pictured right in much of Iraq:

Poor management of scarce water sources is leading to severe inequalities and injustices that threaten to destabilise the entire region.

Water has forever been symbolic of prosperity, civilisation, and development. What happens when it is all gone?

While Iraq’s climate is semi-arid with Mediterranean gusts in the north, the aridity is freshly sliced by the flow of two major rivers: the Euphrates and Tigris. Springing in Turkey, they meander south-easterly through Iran and Iraq before discharging into the Persian Gulf. The rivers replenish a significant portion of the land, providing a livelihood for more than a third of Iraq’s 45 million population. 

Now, the land between rivers is no longer the lush and fertile land it once was. Up to 7 million people are experiencing a significant reduction in access to fresh water as the country continues to battle worsening droughts each consecutive year. Upstream dam-building for sustainable energy development, coupled with dwindling rainfall and climate-induced droughts has reduced water flow in the Euphrates-Tigris basin by 30-40% over the past 40 years. 

The shortage of water flow has also reduced the availability of land for cultivation where a majority of the rural population depends on agriculture for sustenance. Additionally, Iraq’s oil industry has been exacerbating the water crisis as it consumes an unlimited amount of water which further contributes to the pollution of freshwater sources.

Throughout these brewing crises, the Iraqi government has been alarmingly passive and unresponsive to the detrimental impacts and rising tensions within the country. The probability of widespread collective violence in the upcoming years is high. Stressed communities, facing environmental decline, are likely to clash either among themselves or with the government over limited and degraded resources. 

Poor management of the current crisis only signals an unprepared government for a future predicted with even more scarcity and uncertainty.

IT’S A MULTIFACETED PROBLEM

OUTDATED IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE 

Although urbanisation is increasing in Iraq, a majority of the population is still composed of rural tribes and communities. Agriculture accounts for around 80% of water use as rurals are heavily dependent on crop cultivation, livestock farming, and fishing for sustenance. Arguably, this is an adequate supply, however, most of this water is misused and poorly distributed as Iraq is still dependent on outdated irrigation infrastructure with no substantive plans for development. The lack of knowledge and investment into water management is criticised by scholars and activists for leaving a weak foundation on which to establish Iraq’s food, water, and national security.

Small-scale fishers are returning to shore empty-handed due to decreasing water quality, unable to feed their families. Water-born illnesses are spreading and hospitalising thousands due to poor water management, and buffalo herders are losing their livestock to severe dehydration and drying wetlands. Farmers who once harvested 40-50 kilogrammes from their land, now barely cultivate 3 kilogrammes.

OIL 

Climate-induced droughts, weather changes, and upstream dam building impose external threats and limitations to water management in Iraq. However, there are internal contributors to the water crisis and public agitation like Iraq’s booming oil industry composed of several Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil, BP, and Eni. 

A majority of the oil fields are located in the south in the Governorate of Basra, within the largest ecosystem of wetlands in the Middle East. Here, oil companies consume up to 25% of water daily- most of which becomes wastewater-  in the most drought-stricken region of the country for a process called ‘water injection’. Up to three barrels of water are injected into the ground to extract only one barrel of oil. 

A report by the Guardian has further revealed that oil companies are diverting freshwater from the Basra canal to their oil fields and releasing contaminated water into the rivers without adhering to regulations or showing concern for collateral suffering.

Oil is directly linked to Iraq’s economy and national security as it supports nearly 42% of the country’s GDP and 99% of exports. Therefore, oil is at par with water, composing the two most valuable resources for Iraq.

In the meantime, local farmers and fishers have slowly watched their animals and livelihoods evaporate along with the traces of water, replaced by sticky mud, pollution, and stranded fishing boats.

RATIONING WATER 

So far, the government’s management strategy has been to cut water supply to the most drought-stricken regions to supply sufficient drinking water to the rest of the country. Irrigation canals are being opened once every three weeks creating a high-competition, high-stress race for water among farmers which has been resulting in violent outbreaks.

In response to these strict restrictions, and desperate to maintain a livelihood, some farmers have resorted to drilling unregulated wells, creating unlicensed fish ponds, and setting illegal, concealed pipes to pump water from irrigation canals.

UNLICENCED FISH PONDS 

While some may justify the creation of unauthorised fish ponds and agricultural lakes, this kind of unregulated water extraction critically jeopardises the availability of groundwater in the long term and further strains the already minimally available water. But what’s a stressed population to do?

In 2018, it was revealed that nearly 2,000 unapproved lakes were built in Iraq from 2014 to 2017 for irrigation and fish farming, drawing water from valuable lakes, like Lake Habbaniyah, and channelling it to their tribes. According to the Minister of Water Resources, Aoun Dhiab, the count of unauthorized lakes has now surpassed 5,000. Despite the government’s annual water limit for fish farms set at 330 million cubic meters, it is estimated that 2 billion cubic meters is used each year. 

A discussion with Hussam Sohbi, a biologist and environmental activist in Iraq, reveals that these illegal and unsustainable actions are backed by some factions within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a government-recognised paramilitary force. These unlicensed fish ponds- or strategic lakes-  have sometimes been seen as a way for these factions to generate revenue and exert influence. Although the PMF consist of diverse factions with various affiliations, certain factions have close ties with upstream Iran and possess strong political influence, adding another layer to the complex water dynamics in the region.

Furthermore, these illegal methods have inevitably encroached on the rights of other law-abiding farmers, and their righteous anger has fostered intercommunal, inter-clan disagreements.

CURRENT SOLUTIONS

To control unregulated water consumption, the Iraqi government has aimed at shutting down unauthorized fish farms in Baghdad, Basra, and Nineveh provinces. However, the campaign achieved only partial success. While just over 2,500 unregistered lakes were shut down, Iranian-backed militias ensured that regions under their control in Karbala and Najaf provinces were not impacted by these measures.

Additionally, the state has established a special oil security force to prevent illegal water extraction by farmers and resorted to using force to settle order. 

The southern Iraqis seem to be abandoned in a pressure cooker, steaming with frustration, helplessness, and an ever-growing existential crisis that is not being addressed but suppressed. 

This pressure was bound to implode. Climate-related violence and crimes have been surging and there is an alarming increase of armed tribespeople seeking environmental justice. Militias have also attacked politicians and activists for raising water-related issues.

This eventually led to an outburst in March 2023 as protests over surging water insecurity caused a violent outbreak between activists and security forces in the southern governorate of Dhi Qar. Activists were demanding the dismissal of the district governor over water mismanagement and negligence and called for a clean and equal water supply.

These clashes in Basra provide a glimpse of the kind of conflict that is anticipated to become increasingly prevalent in Iraq in the years ahead.

‘IT’S OUT OF OUR HANDS’ 

With insufficient budgets for the Ministry of Water, Iraqi leaders have been trying to bend accusatory fingers towards their riparian neighbours, instead of taking any accountability. Iraq is blaming Turkey and Iran for releasing insufficient water from upstream. Turkey is blaming Iraqi mismanagement. Tribes are blaming neighbouring tribes for water encroachment, as well as the Iraqi state for its incompetence. Peace is deteriorating.

While transboundary water agreements were once formed between Syria, Turkey and Iraq, it was reported that Turkey repeatedly breached these by discharging significantly less amounts of water into Syria and Iraq than what was agreed. Ankara claimed that Iraq was receiving a sufficient water supply but simply mismanaged it. Furthermore, although Iraq harbours great potential to harness potable water through desalination, the majority of these projects are yet to bear any fruit.

During a prolonged drought in December 2021, the Iraqi Ministry of Water Resources issued a threat to take Iran to international court over alleged water policy violations. However, Iran attributed Iraq’s water crisis to Turkey and diverted blame to Ankara.

Regarding Iraq’s attempts to influence cooperation with Turkey, its options are severely constrained. Firstly, there is significant uncertainty about Iraq’s ability to pursue arbitration in its water dispute with Turkey, mainly because Ankara has not signed the 1997 U.N. Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses—the only treaty governing the use of transboundary rivers. Moreover, Iraq lacks any significant leverage over Turkey. 

The partial involvement of the PMF further complicates the trajectory for sustainable water management. While the PMF is not directly involved in water management in Iraq, its influence through illegal activities, its increasing political and economic power, and its ties to Iran, are added obstacles to the government’s ability to address the problem.

WHAT’S WAITING AHEAD?

Following the clashes in March this year, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’a Al-Sudani visited Turkey to negotiate an increase in water released downstream, which Erdogan agreed to do only for one month. 

However, given the inadequate water infrastructure, non-existent development strategies, and an underfunded Ministry of Water, how well would Iraq administer this supply, even if it were forever? It is this lack of accountability and management that is the real perpetrator of the problem. 

Iraq isn’t a completely incapable nation. It generates a great deal of wealth from its oil industry which could fund desalination projects, install adequate irrigation infrastructure, and research projects into sustainable water management. 

But Iraq is a nation that is still paralysed from 2 decades of unrest, and a majority of its budget is invested in national security. Knowledge and research into water management policies are scarcer than water itself and have not been prioritised. Oil revenue is simply creating an illusion of stability.

Hussam Sobhi reinforces the importance of research for sustainable water and food security. Science-backed policies are the only way to stabilise national and regional water security. Mathew Machowski, a Middle East security researcher, has also claimed that “controlling water resources in Iraq is even more important than controlling the oil refineries.” The security of basic commodities is a setting stone for peace and Iraq must not undermine the importance of environmental security. 

From history, we can learn that insecurity breeds fear. Not the kind that fosters obedience, but one that activates a survival mode arising from a deep sense of nothing to lose, spiralling into conflict and insurgency. The United Nations has stated that although there has been international cooperation over water resources to date, given the uncertainty of the future and the pressures imposed by climate change, “disputes will rise unless shared water resources are managed through science-based water diplomacy.”

This has happened before. The 2011 Syrian civil war has been attributed to severe droughts and water scarcity by several scholars and academics, which eventually fuelled an uprising. The weaponisation of water is also, unfortunately, familiar in the Middle East. 

In 2021, the International Organisation for Migration recorded an estimate of 20,000 internally displaced Iraqis due to water scarcity in just 10 Governorates out of 19. It is estimated that by 2035, Iraq will only be able to meet 15% of water demands, which forebodes further forced displacements and even potential water wars. With approximately 60 million people estimated to rely on the Euphrates in total, the drying of this river forebodes severe conflict and instability in an already geopolitically fragile region. 

All these urgently demand action from Iraq to tackle its management paralysis and prevent a catastrophe.

ACTIONS

There have been some optimistic developments. In March 2023, Iraq joined the UN Water Conference, being the first country in the Middle East to do so.

In August, the Iraqi state announced plans to construct a desalination plant to address the drinking water crisis. 

The development of a framework that supports equitable water sharing was also advised by the Norwegian Refugee Council which also promotes peaceful transboundary cooperation.

However, there is certainly more to be done.