As wider regional conflict looms ever closer, the international community braces itself for what would become the collapse of relative peace in the Middle East, following Hamas’ ruthless attack on Israel on the 7th of October. Attempts to put the conflict on ice have fallen on deaf ears, as Iran declares its public support for Gaza and Egypt and Jordan refuse to open their borders to Palestinian refugees. Yet some still ask the question, will this conflict remain isolated, or will neighbouring states inevitably be drawn in?

Hezbollah Drawn into Conflict

On Monday evening, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian was quoted as saying in relation to Hezbollah: “All possible options and scenarios are there for Hezbollah…Naturally, resistance leaders will not allow the Zionist regime to take any action in Gaza, and when it feels reassured about Gaza, move on to other resistance areas in the region”. This comes as Iran has warned of possible “pre-emptive” action against Israel “in the coming hours” as Israel prepares for a ground offensive on the Gaza Strip, an offensive which could see further devastation in an already desperate Gaza Strip. Further to this, Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Sunday, “If we don’t defend Gaza today, tomorrow we have to defend against these [phosphorus] bombs in the children’s hospital of our own country”, referring to reports that Israel had used phosphorus bombs in its bombardment of Gaza.

Iran has been far from silent in recent days regarding its support for Gaza. It actually completely underwrites and supports the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which has been exchanging blows with Israel across the Israel-Lebanese border for several days. On Sunday morning, Hezbollah launched a retaliatory missile into Israel, killing one Israeli, in the latest series of the tit-for-tat strikes that have stoked fears of a regional war, a war that seems increasingly likely. Hezbollah’s guided-missile strike against an Israeli army vehicle on the border town of Metula came in response to an earlier airstrike by Israel into Lebanon, killing a journalist known to the NCF and injuring six others, a strike which Israel has, as always with attacks on civilians, denied pending investigation. Earlier today, the IDF confirmed it had killed four individuals attempting to cross into northern Israel from Lebanon to plant an explosive.

Humanitarian Aid Routes closed – Egypt and Jordan angered

Given the escalation of conflict, many governments in the region as well as the US have turned their attention to humanitarian crossings to be used both as routes out of Gaza, ostensibly for fleeing refugees, but arguably (in the view of most Gazans and indeed most Arabs) to be exploited to depopulate Gaza. Meanwhile, there are calls for humanitarian corridors into the strip to allow for desperately needed resources to reach the hundreds of thousands in need. During a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Jordan’s King Abdullah warned against trying to push Palestinian refugees into Egypt or Jordan, adding that the situation must be dealt with inside Gaza and the West Bank – “no refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt… That is a red line”. King Abdullah further warned of a dire situation in the Middle East if the conflict between Israel and Hamas is allowed to spread further. He was of course referencing Lebanese-Israel relations, between whom tensions have skyrocketed in recent days; “The whole region is on the brink of falling into the abyss” he warned.

This comes ahead of the German Chancellor’s visit to Israel alongside US President Joe Biden, in an attempt to bring both Israel and Hamas into line and the region back from the brink of an international crisis. However, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, has refused to meet Biden in the wake of the recent Gaza Hospital bombing. And even prior to that bombing, relations between Saudi Arabia and the USA had become acutely strained. Blinken seems to be asking why Egypt won’t take half a million refugees, which seems to be provoking anger with the US from the Saudis and the Jordanians. They say MBS kept Blinken waiting for ten hours before he would see him but that may be apocryphal.

The US has become perceived as weak. One senior US diplomat told the NCF privately that the USA is in a terrible place globally. “China and Russia can sit this out and talk to everyone, while our credibility is slipping in the Global South especially. We are spinning our wheels with a major border problem (5 million illegal immigrants since January alone); economic conflict with China; falling support for Ukraine; new crisis with Turkey; unprecedented presidential election next year; and political chaos in Congress all contribute to an impression — if not the reality—of governing incompetence in Washington.”

Meanwhile, international dialogue over the past several days has begun to focus on Egypt’s control of one of the two principal land routes out of the Gaza Strip – the Rafah crossing. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are dual nationals with American passports are waiting on the Gaza side of the border, with dozens of aid convoys carrying desperately needed resources waiting on the Egyptian side, with no deal having been reached on whether to open the crossing, particularly given a number of Israel’s air strikes on the crossing over the past 48 hours. Egypt’s foreign minister Sameh Shoukry told the BBC on Monday that from Egypt’s perspective, “the Rafah crossing on our side is officially open”, but blamed “aerial bombardments” for making the crossing inaccessible for aid lorries to cross into Gaza.

But many have doubted whether Cairo itself is genuinely willing to allow this crossing to reopen, with the official Cairo stance being that tight restrictions on the Rafah opening are a result of its ongoing conflict with al Qaeda terrorists in north Sinai. However, Egypt’s reluctance to open the crossing has now become an avowed attempt to avoid a mass exodus of Palestinians. Egypt is both unwilling to play any role in what could amount to the permanent resettlement of an unknown number of Palestinians from Gaza, and unwilling to be culpable in what it perceives as the potential ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Further to this, Israel’s government has not in any case yet adopted a position that would allow the crossing to be opened for either Palestinian refugees leaving or aid entering Gaza.

Saudi Arabia – A reluctant third-party or unwilling bystander?

Since the beginning of the current brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas Saudi Arabia has put on hold plans to normalise relations with Israel.

As Riyadh delicately attempts to prevent the escalation of the conflict onto further fronts behind the scenes, following Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman taking his first phone call from the Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi late last week, a firm stance has now been taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in regard to the conflict, A stance that is only natural given the Saudi population’s overwhelming support of the Palestinian cause. Israel’s concessions for Palestine would need to be a much larger priority come a time when peace talks resume, although it remains to be seen when such talks could or would resume.

What Next?

As neighbouring states attempt to navigate this newly intensified security arena, one sentiment has been echoed by all other than Iran; de-escalation and lack of involvement is the way forward for the majority of these nations. However, as Lebanon risks being drawn into the conflict, and as Saudi Arabia begins to make more strident statements, Palestinians residing within the Gaza Strip are quickly running out of options, with the allowing of both humanitarian aid into the region (as Gazans want) and refugee flows out of Gaza (as the USA and Israel want) quickly becoming the key issue within this conflict.