As escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict appears to be becoming inevitable, the international community is taking measures which it assumes may mitigate the regional impact of such a fast-paced international crisis (though the reality may be that ratcheting up the intimidating rhetoric may have exactly the opposite outcome of that intended). The West remains steadfast in its support of Israel in spite of last night’s attack on Al Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, whilst Arab States seek multi-national summits in an attempt to express solidarity with Palestine.

Biden’s visit to Jordan cancelled

This comes as a summit between Palestinian, US, Jordanian and Egyptian leaders was cancelled late on Tuesday evening, just hours before US President Joe Biden was due to visit Jordan to discuss the ongoing conflict. The summit’s cancellation comes as a blow to Biden’s diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict in the region before further escalation, and instead, the US President only visited Israel. Jordan’s foreign minister spoke of the visit: “There is no use in talking now about anything except stopping the war”.

The cancellation of the visit follows the attack on Al Ahli Arab Hospital (known in Gaza as the Baptist Hospital) in Gaza City on Tuesday, an event with a death toll standing at between 450 and 550, and in light of a 3-day period of mourning announced by President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority. A Washington spokesperson said on Tuesday evening, “After consulting with King Abdallah II of Jordan and in light of the days of mourning announced by President Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, President Biden will postpone his travel to Jordan and the planned meeting with these two leaders and President Sisi of Egypt”. Tuesday’s attack on Al Ahli Arab Hospital has been a major flashpoint of the conflict so far, but Western leaders still question who is responsible for the attack, quite possibly a key reason that the summit of leaders in Jordan has been cancelled.

Whilst Hamas (and indeed the people of Gaza and all the Arab World) claims that responsibility for the attack lies with the Israel Defence Force, Israel has countered (perhaps with limited credibility as far as the Arab World is concerned) that the incident was a result of a misfired Islamic Jihad missile, with Biden quick to assert his support for Israel and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This also follows US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin ordering roughly 2,000 U.S. Marine rapid response forces to be put on heightened alert, as multiple US military ships are poised in the southern Mediterranean. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, following Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to Israel, is also now visiting, as part of a broader visit to the region, which will likely include stops in Jordan and Egypt. Though the kind of language being employed by UK Defence Minister Grant Shapps is scarcely calculated to defuse tension.

Many feel US President Biden is badly advised. His request that Egypt take half a million refugees from Gaza should never have been made. This the NCF was told by a senior diplomat from the Sultanate of Oman just today. But we live in a world where the USA has no ambassador to Egypt, Israel or Lebanon, and the USA has not had a Middle East strategy for years. The Middle East simply has not been a priority under Biden’s presidency.

Biden has at least managed to negotiate access for limited medical aid to Gaza across the Egyptian border, though we have yet to see that agreement implemented.

OIC Meeting called in Jeddah

Following on from this, Jeddah hosted an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Executive Committee today, in a bid to prevent further military escalation in Gaza and surrounding neighbour states. All 57 member countries of the OIC were invited to attend, poignant given that the Executive Committee is comprised of just six key states. The meeting in Jeddah held significant international weight, particularly given that Saudi Arabia has so far remained relatively uninvolved in the Palestine-Israel conflict. Saudi Arabia’s invitation comes amid Israel’s continued bombardment of civilian targets, particularly in Gaza, as international attention has been drawn to its continued siege on water, electricity, fuel, and aid supplies to the densely populated land strip.

Iran’s Proposed Oil Embargo

Iran’s involvement in the conflict cannot be overstated, particularly given its role as the primary funder of Hezbollah, which is currently engaged in reciprocal clashes with Israel’s forces. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Wednesday called on members of the OIC, currently meeting in  Saudi Arabian, to impose an oil embargo and further restrictions on Israel. Tehran is calling for an immediate and complete embargo on Israel by Islamic countries which comes as no surprise, given Iran’s support of Hezbollah. Pro-Palestinian protests have erupted throughout the Middle East and North Africa following the attack on the hospital, most notably in Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen and Turkey as well as outside the US embassy in Lebanon.

No immediate action is to be taken by OPEC, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who produce a third of the world’s oil, and the meeting of the OIC was primarily to discuss de-escalation in the region and attempts to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means. Further to this, on Tuesday evening, the Gulf Cooperation Council Security General affirmed that the GCC was committed to energy security and not using oil as a weapon of war, in contrast to Iran’s proposition.

What still remains unclear, is how this conflict is to be de-escalated, given Iran’s calls for an Oil Embargo and the West’s steadfast support of Israel. This conflict will almost certainly spill over into Lebanon, but the question remains as to whether it will spread to Syria and other neighbouring states.

The image used above is from Hosny Saleh