The recent interview with the Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, on Fox News quickly made headlines around the world. Not just, because it was the first interview HRH Mohammad Bin Salman has ever given fully in English. Rather, it was his comments about Saudi Arabia’s relationship with Israel that sent analysts, journalists, and governments into a frenzy. For a few years now, it’s been reported that the Arab country has been ameliorating its relationship with its Jewish neighbor. The United States has led the effort towards the deal, hoping it will bring some stability to the region. Amid all this, what would happen to Palestine? The issue seems to be one of the most significant roadblocks in reaching a deal. So, what exactly did the Crown Prince say on the matter?
MBS mentioned Palestine multiple times throughout the interview. When asked what it would take for him to normalize relations with Israel, the Crown Prince said that the “Palestine issue [is] very important” and that they had to “solve that part.” He said he wanted to reach a place “that will ease the life of the Palestinians.” However, when asked to clarify what this might look like, he continued to give vague answers. Still, he seemed to want to imply that a deal with Israel is contingent on concessions for the Palestinians.
Should we trust his comments?
Firstly, we have to consider the other moving parts of this deal. Reaching an agreement is a priority for the Americans. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has said that the issue is of “national security interest.” It would be a major foreign policy achievement for the Biden administration, particularly before the beginning of another election cycle. On one hand, the Americans have said that they would prefer a two-state solution in the Palestine-Israel conflict. However, their actions seem to suggest that bringing general stability through a Saudi-Israeli deal might take precedence.
Then there is Saudi Arabia. For them, an important part of potentially normalizing relations with Israel is what they would get from the Americans in the process. They want a defense pact that could include Washington helping the kingdom set up a civilian nuclear program and decreasing restrictions on arms sales. This would further solidify Saudi Arabia’s alliance with the United States, which seems likely given the number of times that MBS mentioned them during the interview. It’s also worth mentioning that the interview, which was conducted on the most-watched news channel in America, could be MBS’s way of presenting himself as an approachable and composed leader in front of the American public. Additionally, if Saudi Arabia can reach a deal in which they recognize Israeli statehood and gain significant concessions for Palestine, this would also strengthen their leadership and credibility amongst the Arab countries in the region.
Their influence is something that Israel may be counting on. If they were able to reach a deal with the Saudis, this would work towards ending their political isolation in the region. Saudi Arabia is also home to the holiest sites in Islam, Mecca and Medina, and Israel might be hoping that if they grant them recognition, other Muslim-majority countries would follow. However, some in Israel’s cabinet claim that Israel is not willing to give any concessions to the Palestinians in return for Saudi recognition. In a clearly related move, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has just appointed an envoy to the Palestinians, the first time Saudi Arabia has done so.
Where does that leave the Palestinians? They seem to be caught at the crossroads of the political goals of multiple countries. Right now, the best-case scenario is that MBS follows through on his comments from the interview and secures significant concessions. Some guesses as to what this might look like include American recognition of the state of Palestine, the reopening of airports in Gaza and Ramallah, and perhaps more freedom of movement for Gazans. However, it is unclear how any significant concessions will be made with Netanyahu’s right-wing government in office.
The more dire scenario is that Saudi Arabia makes a deal with Israel and doesn’t follow through on MBS’s comments. This would be a devastating loss for the Palestinian cause, given the kingdom’s influence. It would also mean that Saudi Arabia would lose credibility as a leader in the region. That said, we still lack clarity about the contents of the deal and cannot make purely speculative judgements.
The picture featured above shows Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince with President Biden of the USA
