In what seems a potentially huge breakthrough for the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has normalised relations with Iran. The key moment was when Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, shook the hands of Ali Shamkhani (the Secretary General of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council) and Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban (the National Security Advisor of Saudi Arabia) on March 10th. China has again taken the reins as the mediator for two conflicting parties. In February 2023, Xi Xinping’s government fashioned a 12-point peace plan to be considered by Russia and Ukraine in relation to that year-long conflict. China’s normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, concludes a 7-year long process of peace brokering largely hosted by Iraq in the years since 2016 (a year in which relationships were at an all time low following the execution of a Shia scholar in Saudi Arabia).

China has been increasing its Middle Eastern influence for the past couple decades; expanding trade relationships. In regard to Iran, back in March 2021, China committed to heavily invest in Iran’s economy for the next 25 years, to the sum of $400 billion, in exchange for a regular supply of discounted Iranian oil. With much of Iran’s assets being frozen following EU sanctions in 2016, Iran has become the major beneficiary of China’s increasing engagement with the Middle East.

Iranian Proxy Conflict

Since Ebrahim Raisi became Iran’s president, he has committed to improving Iranian relations with its neighbours. Shiite Iran has been at loggerheads with Sunni Saudi Arabia as a consequence of competition for influence within the Muslim world and ethno-sectarian tension. 

With this in mind, heads are turning towards Yemen. Iran, and its allies, Hezbollah, have been sponsoring the largely de facto controllers of Yemen, Ansar al Islam a.k.a. the Houthi, who have been engaged in a civil war with the Saudi-and-Western-backed internationally recognised Yemen government. In 2022, the UN formulated a brief ceasefire between Houthi Ansar al Islam and the internationally recognised Yemen Government although this had lapsed by October the same year. China’s mediation could perhaps now usher in the end of the civil war. 

President Assad’s government in Syria has already seen the benefits of rapprochement with Saudi Arabia with agreements to reopen embassies in both countries. Now the Iranian president is to touch down in Riyadh to help further normalisation talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria; an event that was unfathomable just a few months ago. Saudi Arabia is now pushing for Iran’s ally, Syria, to be reintegrated into the Arab League.

Lebanon, another country which has been deeply affected by the 7-year Saudi-Iranian schism, could benefit from normalisation. Currently, Lebanon is a state without a head and a power vacuum has ensued there for many months. Lebanon’s next potential leader, Sleiman Frangieh, a Maronite Christian, has the backing of some and vehement opposition from some others. Iranian normalisation has done little to resolve the impasse, but heads are turning toward the Qataris who now seem to want to mediate in Lebanon.

Nuclear Deal and Israel

A big bone of contention for Iran has been the ongoing development of the Iranian nuclear programme. This has prompted anxiety from both neighbouring Arab states and Israel.

A normalisation deal for Iran will help to develop relationships with neighbouring countries that had previously tried to isolate it. The Gulf Arab states are likely to benefit from Iranian rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. Israel, on the other hand, had previously attempted to construct a coalition of Middle Eastern states to isolate Iran and put pressure on its nuclear and military aims by doing so. 

Iran has suffered from international economic sanctions and regional isolation for a long time, prompted by its commitment to its civil nuclear programme and, now, its support for Russia in Ukraine. Arguably as a consequence, Saudi Arabia has asked the US for help to develop its own civil nuclear programme. 

Nevertheless, in November of 2022, Iran enriched its uranium to 60% purity (90% purity is weapon-grade). This was shortly after the 2015 JCPOA Nuclear Deal deteriorated, in 2018, because of the USA’s withdrawal. As a result, fears of nuclear escalation were rife.

Israel views the normalisation deal as a blow to its strategic aim of the isolation of Iran. With the USA less heavily involved in the Middle East, it would be hard for Israel to stand alone against the Iranian nuclear programme. There is great speculation as to how Israel is going to act from now on.

However, it is likely the normalisation deal could allow for active discussion on the regulation of Iran’s civil nuclear programme fronted by Saudi Arabia. With China being a valuable mediator, perhaps their growing influence in the region may allow for a new JCPOA type deal to reopen, under China’s oversight.

Good for Peace, Bad for Human Rights?

The normalisation deal is still in its early stages as the two-month implementation period is in progress. At the end of the two months, ambassadors are expected to return to Riyadh and Tehran, respectively. In the meantime, there are still leaps and bounds to go through for the two nations. Both countries have historically meddled in each other’s domestic affairs and this deal is to prevent that continuing. Iran has been witness to much social unrest following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the Iranian National Guard which has caused protests across the nation. 

Normalisation has positive connotations for stability and further peace negotiations for the region as a whole. While there is still much discussion to be held, an end to various proxy conflicts is on the horizon. Although, Iranian immunity to Saudi criticism of its domestic affairs could be a blow to human rights.

With China stepping up its involvement and now acting as a mediator in both the Middle East and the war in Ukraine, it is fascinating to think how the balance of influence and power in the region may evolve over coming months.