What are the current, most pressing issues of the war with Russia and what is the likelihood of securing negotiations for peace? Hear William’s latest podcast discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict and why there is an immense need now for ceasefire and peace dialogues in the lead up to harvest. Currently, 20 million tonnes of grain are unable to be shipped out of Ukraine, in part due to the mines planted in the Black Sea. Without a ceasefire it is unlikely grain exportation will proceed, leading to considerable global food shortages. Moreover, Russia’s new stance on foreign policy as well as their unwavering determination for seizing the Donbas amongst other regions, makes the prospect of securing peace talks soon unlikely.

Transcript:

Well, here we are at the beginning of July and I’m going to say a few words about Ukraine. This will go out on the Fourth of July I guess so there you go, what to say about Ukraine.

I want to give you the Russian position because I think it’s very important that you understand this if you don’t already. And it’s not as straightforward as you might think. Obviously, the Russians want to take the Donbas, that’s a given. They said that that that’s it, that’s what they want. I personally, genuinely believe that’s the limit of their objective, but they claim other objectives but really, it has been too costly a war for them. So, Russia wants to Donbas, it will take the Donbas, it will expend endless lives until it takes the Donbas. It’s an existential issue for them as far as they are concerned from their perspective and their main objective beyond that is the Ukraine remains not aligned, or in the sense of not being a member of NATO, that’s a given of course, they don’t care too much about anything else.

They’re happy to see the grain exported, though doubtless it would have to go not from Mariupol but from another port, that’s not an issue. There is an issue as regards time, we need a ceasefire pretty swiftly in order to get that grain exported. And that’s difficult, of course, because of the need to take the Donbas. The mines, as you know, in the Black Sea were put there by Ukraine in order to protect its ports from Russian warships so they’re not Russian mines, they’re Ukrainian mines. Of course, there is that absolute caveat in times of war, warships are not allowed through the streets of Istanbul into the Black Sea, or out, or at least they can return to their home port but that’s, that’s it, they can’t travel any further. Which means what? Which means that to get British minesweepers, Britain has the best, the most elite minesweeping capability in the world, to get British minesweepers in, there are I think 11 ships, the Royal Navy has ever outfitted suitably for minesweeping, it’s a thing that we do well, we do it effectively, we’re good at it. So we need a special agreement to let the boats in but that can be done, not a problem, just needs cooperation from Turkey, a little high level discussion and it can be done instantly. And you’re worried about the insurance for the boats that are in there and they’re going to ship the grain, not a problem, there are plenty of boats already trapped in there. Yeah. No, it’s not a problem because Britain and America can underwrite the insurance on the boats, you don’t need to worry about that, so that’s doable.

Vital that the grain is shipped now. Why? Because there’s grain standing in the fields. So what? So the grain can be shifted, it’s not a big deal, but it has to be done at once. We need the agreement at once. We need to stop messing around and then that can go otherwise we’re going to see all that beautiful grain burnt in the fields and the children of Africa will blame us, quite rightly. Or they won’t, we’ll make excuses, but it will be our fault.

The issue of peace talks, very difficult, you could have a ceasefire just for the grain and that could be negotiated if there’s a political will but you see it’s difficult, isn’t it? It’s difficult for us for Britain, America and the rest to accept a ceasefire on that basis, let alone the Russians who don’t want to stop fighting until they’re taking the Donbas, but I think the Russians could be bullied into it with the right approach. That seems the implication of the talks we’ve been having with them, and we’ve had extensive talks, obviously, with people from Russia. The problem is that Russia is kind of changing a problem. No, maybe it’s not a problem. Russia is changing its political philosophy to one of what you might call rationalism instead of nationalism. So Russia is taking a kind of, they wouldn’t believe it perhaps, but taking a French approach. You know, the French approach for foreign policy is “Vive la France”. That’s it, simple, straightforward, very easy to understand French foreign policy, unlike the British and American who confuse it with other issues. Russia’s moving towards a French-style foreign policy, along with China. China and Russia now are in close alliance, reinforced of course, by Biden’s approach with regard to Taiwan. His recent statement at the meeting of the quad whereby he said that America would go to war for Taiwan. Unfortunate, misguided remark on Biden’s part but there you go, he said it and of course that drove China close to the Russia. So it’s an interesting time, and this kind of pragmatic approach to foreign policy, I know you won’t think it’s pragmatic when so many Russian lives are being lost, the number of Russian boys who have died is quadruple the number of Ukrainian lives lost without a shadow of a doubt, including civilians. Now, of course, that’s not the point, Russia doesn’t think that way unfortunately. So the sacrifices are made and it doesn’t seem to give Russia real pause. It’s very unfortunate. It’s what it is. It’s a fact of life.

Now, can we defeat Russia? Yes, of course, I suppose, throw enough weapons and arms at it eventually, maybe. But, what would be left? We lose the grain harvest. We lose everything. The Ukrainian President has made it very clear again and again and again and again and again, that he’s ready for peace talks, time to push that agenda rather more seriously than we have. The Indonesian President has been going out on a limb, he’s been up in Russia trying to be helpful. It’s the moment, it’s the time and it’s doable. It’s not satisfactory but there are bigger issues here. We need the grain out as ceasefire or peace negotiation can be achieved. Russia will not give up its claim to the Donbas, or obviously to Crimea, and so, we’ve got to live with that, or see a long, long Vietnam-style war.

Up to you and me, I guess. There’s no other choice, it has got to be dealt with and it’s time really, to face this decision. It’s urgent, it’s vital we do that. The world will suffer. I mean, it’s not just a question of our poorer population who can’t pay for their fuel because the bills are so high. Our bills are colossal now, it is colossal the price we all have to pay now for fuel and energy, petrol. I couldn’t believe the price at the pumps. So, so, so expensive, all because of the war and the sanctions we have required to be put on the Russian people, because of the war. And then we get kick-back and they fix us of course, but that’s not the point. The point is the grain harvest, we’re talking about the breadbasket of the world. Of course Britain can produce vast amounts of grain if we change our policies, we can go back to our old wartime policies. Britain used to produce 10 tonnes an acre. We used to have more agricultural production than Australia, New Zealand and Canada combined, at one point, and right through to the 70s. But that’s over, we have a different approach. We can go back to that intensive agriculture, that heavy, subsidised grain production, we can go back to that, as can other countries of the world, we can make up for the shortfall because of the absence of Ukrainian grain. And we can do it on a huge scale and throw the chemicals of the land and produce massive, it’s doable, but far easier, far, far easier to swallow our pride and negotiate a ceasefire, now, before the crops in Ukraine have to be burned in the fields and the children in Africa start to starve.