The following paper has been submitted to the United Nations as well as to Washington and Moscow and will be submitted to Kiev. The only positive feedback has been from Washington. In view of the pace of events and because it is a matter of public record as a written submission to the UN, we share it with you. It does not represent the view of the trustees of the Next Century Foundation, but is rather the view of an NCF working group.
The paper suggests an armistice or permanent ceasefire (as in the armistices negotiated after the two world wars). It also suggests special status regardless of sovereignty claims made for the disputed areas, not too dissimilar from the special status of Northern Ireland (whereby citizens may take passports from either the UK or Eire or both if they wish). It also suggests that Ukraine join the EU but not Nato. The full text can be viewed in United Nations format here. If you have problems following that link it also follows below:
Peace Between the Russian Federation and Ukraine:
A Way Forward through an Armistice
The Next Century Foundation is gravely concerned by the continuing conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. We therefore propose a new set of territorial and security arrangements that will alleviate tension and restore stability. We highly encourage a ceasefire between both parties as soon as possible during the peace process period.
We recommend:
- Ukraine withdraws its troops from the region of the Russian Federation it occupies.
- That both parties sign an Armistice. Like the armistices that ended the world wars, an armistice is a legally binding, formal agreement among parties to conflict to permanently end all military operations against each other.
- Ukraine ceases to seek to militarily retake Crimea and Crimea remains under de facto Russian control (Ukraine is not required to recognise the Russian annexation of Crimea under the terms of the armistice and will retain its claim).
- Autonomy and shared sovereignty for the Donbas region (Donetsk and Lugansk/Luhansk Oblasts) i.e. both oblasts remain under Russian de facto control and sovereignty from a Russian perspective but Ukraine is not required to abandon its claim to the sovereign control of these oblasts.
- Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia town and its associated Oblast to be recognised as an autonomous region of Ukraine by Ukraine and an autonomous region of Russia by Russia.
- Kherson town and its associated Oblast to be recognised as an autonomous region of Ukraine by Russia.
- Abandoning North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) membership for Ukraine but accepting European Union (EU) membership for Ukraine.
- The withdrawing of all troops other than those at the de facto ceasefire line and a total ceasefire while discussions take place for a peace process. All Ukraine’s troops on Russian territory to withdraw. Ukraine will retain control of the areas of the contested oblasts it controlled at 12 noon on 20th January 2025 (the defining date for the line of control to be respected by the parties under the terms of the armistice).
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR RUSSIA?
1. Crimea:
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. In view of historical realities regarding Crimea’s political status and the context of the current escalation of the conflict, we recommend that Russia retains de facto control and maintains its de jure sovereignty claim over Crimea.
2. The Donbas region (Donetsk and Lugansk/Luhansk Oblasts):
Due to shared sovereignty, the Donbas region would remain de jure Russian but will be an autonomous region. Characteristics include:
A. Dual citizenship for residents: Russian, Ukrainian, or both.
B. Its own local governance models, with control over local areas such as education, health care, and public safety.
C. Taxation authority, including collecting and managing its own taxes.
D. An open border with Ukraine, with Ukraine acting as a trade bridge between Russia, Ukraine, and potentially the European Union (EU).
E. Special trade agreements similar in practice to those adopted for Northern Ireland in regard to the EU. Thus, for trade purposes, Donbas is regarded as part of Russia by Russia and retains open borders with Ukraine – and conversely part of Ukraine by Ukraine and retains open borders with Russia (subject to similar kinds of customs constraints to those that operate in regard to Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)
F. Donbas’s unique dual market access would allow businesses there to trade freely with both Russia and Ukraine.
G. Residents of the Donbas, including Ukrainian citizens, will be exempt from military service.
3. Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia:
Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia is currently under Russian control. We encourage Russian troops to withdraw and recognise Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia as an autonomous region. Ukraine will regard the region as being under Ukrainian sovereignty. Russia would regard the region as being under Russian sovereignty.
Characteristics of an autonomous Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia are detailed below.
As an autonomous region, Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia would share the special trading arrangements of the Donbas region and would share open borders with Donbas, and thus by extension with Russia.
4. Kherson:
Kherson is currently recaptured by Ukraine. We encourage Russian troops to withdraw from the region and recognise the region as an autonomous region under Ukrainian sovereignty.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR UKRAINE?
1. Crimea:
We recommend that Russia retains de facto control over Crimea. Therefore, we encourage Ukraine to avoid seeking to militarily retake Crimea.
2. The Donbas region (Donetsk and Lugansk/Luhansk Oblasts):
Due to shared sovereignty, the Donbas region would remain de jure Ukrainian but will be an autonomous region. As aforementioned, characteristics include:
A. Dual citizenship for residents: Russian, Ukrainian, or both.
B. Its own local governance models, with control over local areas such as education, health care, and public safety.
C. Taxation authority, including collecting and managing its own taxes.
D. An open border with Ukraine, with Ukraine acting as a trade bridge between Russia, Ukraine, and potentially the European Union (EU).
E. Special trade agreements similar to Northern Ireland whereby for trade purposes Donbas is part of Russia but retains open borders with Ukraine.
F. Donbas’s unique dual market access would allow businesses there to trade freely with both Russia and Ukraine.
G. Residents, including Ukrainian citizens, will be exempt from military service.
3. Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia:
We propose that the town of Zaporozhye/Zaporizhzhia and its associated Oblast remains part of Ukraine but operates as an autonomous region. Characteristics include:
A. Its own local governance models, with control over local areas such as education, health care, and public safety.
B. Taxation authority, including collecting and managing its own taxes.
C. Special trade agreements.
The arrangement would function similarly to the Autonomous Communities (AC) of the Kingdom of Spain.
4. Kherson:
Kherson would remain as a part of Ukraine but operates as an autonomous region. Characteristics include:
A. Its own local governance models, with control over local areas such as education, health care, and public safety.
B. Taxation authority, including collecting and managing its own taxes.
C. Special trade agreements
ABANDONING NATO MEMBERSHIP FOR UKRAINE:
The Next Century Foundation recognises Ukraine’s desire for a direct relationship with the West as well as acknowledging Russia’s security concerns regarding the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
We suggest that a NATO presence in Ukraine is not a practical possibility, encouraging Ukraine and the West to abide by the Tutzing formula.
Instead, we recommend alternative options for Ukraine’s security alliances. For example, Ukraine is already a Partnership for Peace (PfP) member country and can build military trust and cooperation with NATO member states.
As Russia is a member of both The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe, there is a useful security framework for both Russia and Europe to begin open dialogue and move towards peace.
CONCLUSION:
The Next Century believes that this new set of territorial and security arrangements is one of the most viable routes towards stability and peace in the region.
Particularly, we encourage the model of autonomy set out for the Donbas provinces as a way to avoid Ukrainian territorial compromises. However, the success of this approach depends on all stakeholders agreeing to participate, as well as robust international oversight.
If implemented effectively, this model can not only secure peace between Russia and Ukraine but also set a precedent for resolving similar conflicts through diplomacy and mutual compromise.
POSTSCRIPT:
The next step might be the production of an annex covering military deployments as a means of confidence building in signalling clear intent to abide by the main agreement. For example, in addition to the status and basing of the Black Sea Fleet issues covered might be a restriction on the forward basing of heavy weapons.
Image used above by wal 172619 from Pixabay
