In recent months, the escalation of international pressure and increased uncertainty about the future of the Israel-Gaza Conflict, has resulted in a state of frustration in both Israel’s Jewish and Israel’s Arab populace. The Netanyahu administration’s apparent unwillingness to take peace negotiations to a successful conclusion, is attributed by some to the Israel Prime Minister’s need to retain right wing support in order to cling onto power. This lack of progress in the peace talks, as well as the lack of any serious enquiries into the government’s failures on the October 7 attacks that led to the war, has resulted in almost universal discontentment in Israel, a society that remains starkly divided along political and denominational lines.
This post, is a follow-up from the previous Voices Within: Israeli Public Opinion post, and intends to explore the Israel public’s view of the Gaza Conflict, as well as monitoring recent changes in Israel’s public opinion.
National psyche shaken with internal divide
Recent months have shown relatively little change in Israel’s universally low trust in the current Netanyahu Administration. The latest Israel Democracy Institute study suggests a major increase in negative assessment of Israel’s overall situation with 62.5% of the sample indicating it to be ‘bad or very bad’, a two-decade high since 2003 in the days of Arab peace initiative. But what about specific categories of worry? The following graph suggests the considerable drop of public contentment in regard to both democratic rule and national security since the start of the Israel-Gaza Conflict:
Source: The Israel Democratic Institute.
The pattern, while consistent, remains intriguing with the continued divide between the Jewish and the Arabic population of Israel. The percentage of optimists among the Jewish sample double that of their Arabic equivalent in regard to democratic rule, while the national security question looms bigger with the Jewish sample quadrupling their Arabic equivalent. That aside, however, the trajectory does not change much in general. While the democratic outlook is predominantly dictated by other variables such as national security, the steady drop in national security outlook is a telling sign with the share of optimists halving from 50% to 26% of the population in a two-year period in a eight-month trajectory:
Source: The Israel Democratic Institute.
The reasons, for most part, remain the same as in the past with continued uncertainty over the current Netanyahu administration’s ability to handle the peace process. In the latest Israel Democracy Institute opinion poll, the distribution of responses have stayed relatively stagnant in favour of a comprehensive deal with all the hostages released in exchange for a ceasefire. But the majority option’s substantial drop, in favour of ‘don’t know’ option, is noticeable, particularly among the Jewish population, and is recognisable as the stall in peace negotiations and declining likelihood of hostage release becomes evident among the frustrated public. Just in the recent weeks have we seen the rise in frustration for the negotiators, as the latest round of Gaza ceasefire talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt have ended with little to no breakthrough in Doha. Multiple factors are cited and considered, which include the assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh on an Israel-led attack in Tehran, but the core issue comes back to lack of willpower by Netanyahu, whose latest demands have included maintaining full control of both Netzarim and Philadelphi Corridors. The demands, for most part, reflect wishful thinking on the prospect of ‘total victory’, but it is an effective strategy with the prospect of holding out translating on the political front with Netanyahu’s Likud party experiencing a noticeable rebound in polls against Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party.
By mounting a holdout at the ceasefire talks accompanied by timed assassinations in Beirut and Tehran, Netanyahu is able to satisfy and secure his political base, even as the general public’s faith in national security continues to decline. On the 22th of August, a major rift within the governing coalition took place when the Defence Minister Yoav Gallant of Likud Party called out National Security Minister Itarmar Ben Gvir of far-right Otzma Yehudit Party, in the security cabinet meeting. Gallant’s criticism, which came following the Shin Bet Chief Ronen Bar’s published letter warning against ‘indescribable damage’ committed by Jewish settlers, has led to hostile exchanges within the governing cabinet, with the possibility of further instability to follow as discontentment grows over the Netanyahu Administration approach.
Calls for Accountability Remain strong, but the Political Divide Limits their Potential
Israel’s society, for most part, has remained both firm and divided in their attitude to the war. The latest Israel Democracy Institute polls have shown consistent support for establishing an enquiry over the October 7 events, with 90% of the population in support of the enquiry. The interest, for most part, is consistent with 94% of Jewish and 79% of the Arabic population in favour of establishing a form of enquiry. The difference, however, occurs in terms of timing, as the political allegiances divide the public attitude as to when such an enquiry should occur. This can be seen from the figures below, as those of the left, liberal-leaning parties preferred an enquiry to take place sooner while the cultural conservatives, led by Likud but not limited to them, remain firm on their conviction that the priority is the resolution of war in a Netanyahuian ‘total victory’:
The divide in opinion along political lines is nothing new, with a clear divide still evident along the party lines where 81% of the Left support the end of war and subsequent retreat, but the temporary ceasefire holds 10% lead among the Right. Still, there is some degree of consensus where significant frustration exist across the populace and there is common, consolidated interest in finishing the war. But to what extent is this the case? It is perhaps better displayed using how the protest movement, which originally began as weekly protests against Netanyahu Administration’s proposed judicial reforms in Tel Aviv’s Democracy Square [nowadays renamed Hostages Square], is received by different factions of Israel’s society per graph below:
Source: The Israel Democratic Institute.
As one could see right above, the public remains divided on their sentiments regarding the protests, which continue every weekend as thousands of Israelis continue to partake in mass demonstrations across the country calling for ceasefire. The breakdown of the figures above, presents a society with its attitude divided by political alignment. They combine well with the additional figure below that disappointment and frustration among its Arab population, as well as the dominant presence of anger among its Jewish population, to suggest continued prevalence of negative feelings shared with the protests, but also for different reasons:
Source: The Israel Democratic Institute.
As seen in earlier graphs regarding the future outlook, relatively little has changed in Israeli public opinion over the past month. There is little to no major political shift in sight, especially with marginal changes occurring along the future prospects of prisoner exchange and the forms of ceasefire and enquiry, and with the Netanyahu Administration more interested in consolidating its power base through its targeted assassinations abroad, than in working towards a constructive solution, challenges remain.
