Joseph Biden is the fifth successive US president with whom Vladamir Putin has held bilateral talks. Moving on from President Trump’s cosy relationship with the Kremlin, Biden got out of the gate early by calling Putin a “killer” back in March, which led to the recalling of diplomats. Following the grand summit in Geneva, good relations were back on the table and diplomats got back to their offices. Beyond all the pomp and circumstance, does a renewed cordial relationship improve the lives of the ordinary people affected by US and Russian foreign policy, in Syria?
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin have announced any specific foreign policy outcomes from the summit. However, Biden assured the press that they discussed “the urgent need to preserve and reopen the humanitarian corridors in Syria”. The United States is calling on the United Nations Security Council, in particular Russia, to vote to reauthorize the Bab al-Hawa Crossing (pictured below) on the Turkish border and renew two other shuttered access points that supplied the rebel-held northwest and Kurdish-controlled northeast before the lack of any Turko-Russian agreement on their use forced them to close last year on security grounds.
In Idlib, in North-West Syria, three-quarters of the four million population depend on aid to survive. Over 2.6 million are internally displaced from elsewhere in Syria and most of them live in refugee camps in terrible conditions, which have been made worse by the deteriorating economy and the pandemic. The majority of this aid comes through border-crossings which are in jeopardy of closing if Russia vetoes the renewal of UN Resolution 2165 in a few days on July 10th, 2021. And Russia will veto the resolution if agreement cannot be reached between Russia and Turkey on their use. Were they used purely for humanitarian aid there would of course be no issue. But Turkey has hegemonic ambitions in Northern Syria of which Russia is suspicious. Whilst Turkey itself is concerned about the reemergence of the Kurds (for whom Biden has a soft spot) as a force in North Eastern Syria. The border crossings are fraught with political significance as well as being crucial for humanitarian reasons.
Some poorly informed observers speculate that Russia will try to use cross-border aid as a bargaining chip for sanctions relief or reconstruction support for Assad’s government, a nonstarter for Washington, which firmly opposes normalizing relationships with the Syrian government before a political solution to the conflict is reached. However the idea that reconstruction aid could ever be a bargaining chip is grossly unlikely if only because the Syrian government has made it abundantly and repeatedly clear that it will never under any circumstances accept reconstruction aid from countries such as Britain and the United States that do not recognise the Syrian government. In a sign that Syria factored high on Russia’s agenda, the country’s Syria envoy was among the Russian officials in attendance at the Geneva Biden-Putin summit.
Moscow has argued the UN cross-border aid mechanism violates Syria’s sovereignty, and has signalled that Russia will use veto powers to block the resolution’s renewal. Russia is in the process of hosting talks on a new Syrian constitution, and wishes to be seen to be protecting Syrian sovereignty. After more than a decade of war, Idlib province is the country’s last opposition stronghold and is largely controlled militant groups arguably foremost amongst which is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Opposition figures miss the point by arguing that Russia wants to put pressure on the civilian population and opposition forces in Idlib to accept its proposed political solution, which favours the interests of the Syrian government. They claim that Russia wants to force rebel groups to accept the Constitutional Committee which is tasked with writing a new constitution in Syria to usher in reconciliation between the opposition and the rebels. The Committee has been denounced as ineffectual as the government team is heavily in favour of Ba’athist interests, whilst the opposition are not a fair representation of the population, nor do they engage in constructive debates but constantly block reconciliation.
But the constitution is far less of a priority for Russia than many suppose or most would hope. Whereas Russia has asked Turkey to deal with the more extreme “Islamist” rebels in Idlib to little avail. Turkey portrays itself as the “protector” of Europe, and has power and leverage in the region. Control of the border crossings in Idlib gives Turkey power as the gatekeepers.
Throughout the process of political speculation, diplomatic bad-faith, and top-down geopolitics, we must remember the civilians caught in the middle of the war. If allowing Russia to have their way would save thousands of lives, maybe political concessions are a price worth paying to get the borders re-opened. Médecins Sans Frontières states:
More than 4 million people in northwest Syria will lose access to desperately needed medical and humanitarian aid if the United Nations Security Council fails to renew its mandate for cross-border aid by July 10.
If this lifeline is cut off, we would see more deaths. If the flow of medical supplies stops through Bab al-Hawa, we might lose our ability to treat patients, as our current stock can only last three months. And if the supply of food and potable water is reduced, diseases and epidemics would affect the internally displaced people and local population.
The COVID-19 response and vaccination campaign in the area would be jeopardized by the closure of the last remaining border crossing point, including the flow of personal protective equipment, oxygen tanks, respirators, essential medications and COVID-19 vaccines.
MSF calls on permanent and non-permanent members of the UN Security Council to renew the cross-border mechanism, as well as to reinstate the cross-border points of Bab al-Salam crossing to the northwest and al-Yarubiyah crossing to the northeast. Crossing borders remains the only viable humanitarian channel to cover growing needs in northern Syria
Médecins Sans Frontières
At a less commented-upon summit, US Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Joey Hood, met the Chairman of the Presidium of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, Fyodor Lukyanov, met and further discussed Syria.
The full transcript of this meeting can be found here:
Mr Hood identified Syria as a place where the US could cooperate with Russia, especially on humanitarian aid. He said, “President Putin has been very clear many times over the years that he’s not particularly dedicated to Bashar himself as a person, but he doesn’t want to see more chaos in Syria overall”. Lukyanov pointed to US-Russian military cooperation in Syria and said that they are “very careful not to provoke anything bad between Russia and the US in Syria and they are very successful in this”.
It seems that Mr Hood is optimistic about the future and the US is willing to work with Russian interests in mind. The Russian side is keen to have working US-Russian relations, but it is clear that the different metrics of success are a main source of contention. It is important to note that a large proportion of Russian foreign aid goes to Syria, however critics have pointed out that Russia classes the donation of military hardware as aid. That said, in fairness it should be pointed out that many Western countries, the United Kingdom being a case in point, keep the nature and breakdown of their aid spend in Syria completely secret. Russia has played a very important role in providing security, driving out ISIS and in reconstruction operations like mine and bomb disposal.
As it stands, it looks like the people of Idlib will be plunged into further chaos for the sake of a diplomatic bargaining chip. Russia has the opportunity to do great things in Syria: to bring about the end of a devastating war and to build a brighter future for Syria’s youngest generation. Despite a newly cordial relationship between two influential Presidents – when it comes to Idlib, none of the handshakes, smiles and summits really matter when compared with harsh geopolitical ambitions. Biden can politely urge Putin to not block humanitarian aid each and every day until July 10th, but unless he can secure Russian interests in Syria, little difference will be made.
by Matt Thomson
