In recent weeks, several developments have taken place in the Russia-Ukraine War, most notably on the Kharkiv front and peace negotiations abroad. Below, key updates are provided as to the latest events:

Putin’s warning to the West

Kharkiv Offensive

Life on Ukraine’s front line is ‘Worse than hell’ as Russia advances. Ukraine’s soldiers talk of exhaustion, faith, personal loss, and a perilous shortage of munitions as Russian forces take new ground. Ukrainian troops say Vladimir Putin must be beaten back. Otherwise, said one, ‘he’s not going to stop over here.’

On 10th of May, the Russian forces launched a new offensive targetting Kharkiv Oblast, marking the first major Russian operation in the region since the Ukrainian counteroffensive in late 2022. It is reported that around 8,000 civilians were evacuated out of the region as the fighting continued to take place along the ‘grey zones’ of Kharkiv Oblast, with the Russian forces aiming to expand the buffer zone between the borders and Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Recent reports suggest that Russian forces, while limited in their progress after their surprising success over the second weekend of May, have experienced ‘tactical success’ in their advances. This is further accentuated by the reports of the Ukrainian retreat from Vovchansk following days of fighting in a strategically beneficial position, translating towards Kyiv’s continued frustrations.

Blinken’s visit to Ukraine, follow-ups with additional Ukraine aid

On the 14th of May, United States Secretary Anthony Blinken met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on his visit to Ukraine, the first visit by a U.S. official since the passing of the $62 billion aid package back in April, before making a speech the following day on the long, winding steps en route to Ukraine’s accession into NATO. It is also accompanied by the additional $2 billion aid which, while coming from the previous April’s aid package, will be fast-tracked in response to Russian advances in the Kharkiv oblast.

Blinken’s visit came at a time of frustrations in Kyiv over the Biden Administration’s restrictions on using U.S.-supplied weapons at Russian military positions inside the Russian territory. With French President Emmanuel Macron stating his openness towards sending troops to Ukraine, and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron lifting restrictions on British-supplied weapons to strike military targets on Russian soil, pressure mounts upon the Biden administration to accelerate the delivery of aid in coming months. 

The next major test for the United States will likely take place in the G7 finance ministers meeting in Stresa, Italy (Date) from 23rd to 25th of May, where the US-led international plan for an additional €30 billion loan to Ukraine will be discussed. The plan, which would involve drawing this sum from the Russian state assets seized in the EU worth around €270 billion, has been planned for over a year but was stalled due to the legal and financial challenges brought by the use of seized assets as collateral.

Domestic Shuffles

Both Russia and Ukraine have experienced relatively little changes in the domestic shuffles, with greater focus placed on the battlefields. Recent weeks have seen pressures continue to mount on the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. On the 9th of May, Zelensky dismissed the state security service chief, Serhiy Rud, following a failed assassination plot that had seen two high-ranked officers detained. This is followed by the nationwide implementation of rolling blackouts following damage to critical infrastructure, set to last until August and the Ukrainian struggles in the Kharkiv region. In response, President Zelensky has recently announced the cancellation of all foreign travel for the foreseeable future.

On the 12th of May, a major cabinet shuffle occurred in Russia with Sergei Shoigu, the longtime Putin ally, and defence minister since 2012, replaced in favour of economist and former deputy minister Andrei Belousov. Belousov’s appointment, which is accompanied by a remark that aims for a victory with minimal loss of lives, is expected to accelerate the consolidation of military spending into the nation’s economy.

China Toes line neutrality in Middle of Europe visits

On the 6th of May, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula Van der Leyen as a part of his week-long European tour, his first to Europe in six years. The Chinese presidential tour was also followed by visits to active Belt-and-Road participants in Hungary and Serbia, coming at a time of growing trade disputes between the European Union and China. Both Macron and van der Leyen have called for China to step up in pushing for a peace process involving Russia and Ukraine. President Xi’s response to these calls, for the most part, has been affirmative, with Beijing agreeing with Macron over a temporary truce of the Russia-Ukraine War throughout the 2024 Paris Olympics.

On the 16th of May, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese Head of State Xi Jinping as part of his two-day visit to China. The visit, the first of Putin’s six-year term since being sworn in as the President on the 7th of May, was President Putin’s first visit in six months as part of the ‘no-limits partnership‘ the two nations had signed mere days before the Russian incursion in Ukraine in February 2022. The talks involved Russian discussions with its largest remaining ally on several strategic fronts, which included and were not limited to Ukraine, energy and trade. Further cooperation and coordination was discussed on the trading front following United States State Secretary Anthony Blinken’s warning to Beijing over major exports towards the Russian military-industrial base.

And finally from left field

To paraphrase Lady Olga Maitland who first sent these round from her Defence and Security Forum: the views expressed by Russia watcher Valery Morozov are his personal opinions. They are most certainly not the views of NCF:

ZELENSKY’S LAST CHANCE TO STAY ALIVE: For Zelensky, the Ukrainian trap created with his most active participation has finally slammed shut, and he has little chance of staying alive until the end of 2024.

Vladimir Putin’s statement that Zelensky has legally ceased to be the legitimate president of Ukraine does not only mean that any document signed by Zelensky from this time onwards, will be considered legal by the Kremlin, or that Putin will not negotiate with Zelensky, but also that Moscow now does not consider itself obligated to take into account security of Zelensky as legitimate head of state on whose territory Russia is conducting its special military operation.

Prior to this statement, throughout the war, wherever Zelensky appeared, including on the front positions with the most active fighting, the Russian armed forces used to stop launching artillery or airstrikes. Now the security umbrella over Zelensky has disappeared, and Russian troops and intelligence services can carry out strikes without worrying about the pre-existing security guarantees for the Ukrainian president. For the Kremlin, there is now no Ukrainian president.

Vladimir Putin did not say all this openly, but given Putin’s character and his manner of speaking in hints, his habit of avoiding unnecessary disturbance of opponents or provoking violent reactions from them, his last statement about Zelensky’s illegitimacy was extremely harsh and had a clear meaning, primarily in possible consequences.

Putin addressed his statement to a lesser extent, to Zelensky, more to his close circle, but first of all, Putin’s statement was addressed to all Ukrainians, as well as to the West, BRICS, and other countries involved in the conflict.

According to the reaction of Western countries, Putin’s statement was not understood by politicians in the US, UK and EU as Putin had expected. This can be explained by civilizational differences in mentality, and in particular, in relation to the factor of legitimacy of political leadership, the Head of State.

In the West, doubts and disputes around the legitimacy of presidents or rulers, do not play the role that such doubts play in Russia or other states of the former Russian Empire. In the United States or European countries, if a court takes the decision to recognize the election results and legitimacy of a State leader, then Western society accepts that decision, regardless of whether the majority of the population agrees with it or not.

In Russia, the legitimacy of the tsar, or State leader has always been the most important political factor. “The Tsar is not real!” – that was the call that more than once in the history of Russia led to unrest and uprisings. The task of convincing the people of the full legitimacy of a ruler was always the main task of the center of power of the Russian civilizational system. There could be no government without legitimacy. The Tsar must be real – the Russians, and after them all the peoples of the former Russian Empire, deeply believed and still believe in that.

In the West, most people believe that Zelensky has retained his legitimacy and remains the president of Ukraine. During a war, a country cannot always afford to hold elections, so the leader in wartime has every right to extend his powers.

So far, the majority of Ukrainians also consider Zelensky their legitimate president, however, there is an important point to be taken into consideration.

Western democracy is more appealing to most Ukrainians than Russian imperialism. And the majority of Ukrainians sincerely want to become part of European democracy, but the understanding of democracy by Ukrainians and, for example, the British, does not coincide and does not come even close.

European democracy is governed by laws that consolidate agreements between social strata and groups reached as a result of their struggle with each other for their interests and rights. The law is the inviolable basis of European democracy.

Ukrainian traditional democracy that has been preserved for centuries, when Ukraine was part of other states, is called “volnitsa” (“freedom of choices”, or “freedom of decisions”). It has its roots in the traditions of the Zaporozhye Cossacks and implies the right of Ukrainians to make decisions that can, if necessary, cancel previously made decisions.

By voting, the Cossacks decided to go to war or not, and on whose side to fight. By voting, they elected their ataman and made decisions about replacing atamans who lost confidence. (Ataman – the elected chief of a Cossack village or military force).

In modern Ukraine, the active majority determines policy and decides the fate of government. At present moment, the number of Ukrainians dissatisfied with the authorities and Zelensky personally, according to official polls, is close to half of the population. This is not critical for Zelensky yet. But if the number of those dissatisfied with his actions exceeds 60-70%, and if discontent takes hold of influential clans and factions in the army, then this will create insurmountable problems for him, and the factor of doubt about his legitimacy will begin to play a decisive role.

Zelensky not only refused to hold presidential elections but also to confirm his legitimacy by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine. He received no guarantee that the Constitutional Court would confirm his legitimacy. Any conflict with the Constitutional Court on this issue will inevitably lead to a split in Ukraine which Zelensky is trying to avoid.

He hopes to cope with the Kremlin refusing to recognize his legitimacy, but cannot allow his illegitimacy to be recognized by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine.

However, Zelensky underestimates the threat coming from the outside world.

Zelensky’s legitimacy is denied not only by Russia and its allies, like Belarus, Iran, and North Korea, but also by other countries. Zelensky’s legitimacy is being rejected or questioned by China, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and India, and this list is expanding.

At the summit in Switzerland, that Zelensky planned to use to work out a “formula for peace in Ukraine,” the split in the world community into those who recognize Zelensky’s legitimacy and do not recognize him as the president of Ukraine will take shape.

Leaders of the countries that will continue to recognize Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine will come to Switzerland. Those who do not recognize his legitimacy will not come to Switzerland, including those, who will send their representatives of the second or third level trying not to irritate Washington and Brussels. In this situation, President Biden personally coming to the summit or ignoring the summit becomes especially important for Zelensky.

The greatest threats to Zelensky’s life come from two factors: internal, Ukrainian, and Russian.

Those who now control the military and security forces in Russia, heard Putin well and understood him properly. Putin doesn’t even need to order Zelensky’s killing. Putin made it clear that Zelensky can now be considered a target, and that killing Zelensky and his entourage will not now be considered in the Kremlin a crime and betrayal of Russian interests.

The Russian military, especially the former Ukrainian citizens from Donbas, hate Zelensky, and there are thousands of them in the Russian army. Many want to avenge the deaths of relatives and friends. Officers from the Russian Federation, whose colleagues and comrades have already died in battles in Ukraine, feel no less hatred for Zelensky. Many of them will have no doubts if they have a chance to kill Zelensky. The same can be said about most of the Russian intelligence officers.

Moreover, Putin has removed and continues to remove generals from the Ministry of Defense and security services, who were pro-Western or linked to the West with economic, financial, and personal interests. Their places are taken by generals who are ready to fight mercilessly not only with Ukraine but also with the West. These generals will now decide the fate of the leadership in Kiev.

The liquidation of Zelensky may be carried out as a direct and demonstrative act, but it can be organized in such a way that there would be no direct evidence of the involvement of the Russian armed forces and intelligence services. The form and method will depend on the international situation and the level of instability in Ukraine, on the scale of protests by the population and political clans in Kiev who are dissatisfied with the war, and the spirits in the Ukrainian army.

Of course, there are factors that the Kremlin has to take into account. However, these factors are quickly losing their meaning and power.

The Kremlin takes into consideration that Zelensky’s death could lead to indignation and protests in the world community, especially in the West. However, such a reaction may be leveled out if events occur that justify attacks on command centers in Kiev.

That could be massive and brutal strikes on Russian cities that result in the death of many civilians, or on strategic targets that according to international laws and rules, can be regarded as the reason for a retaliatory strike on the decision-making centers of those countries that participated in organizing attacks.

That will create the threat of a full-scale war between Russia and some Western countries, or NATO. In the situation of a clear and direct threat of world war, a blow to the military and political power center in Ukraine, to the leadership that has ceased to be legitimate, may seem and be regarded even in the West as the lesser of two evils.

However, the most important factor for Zelensky is the internal Ukrainian situation, the mood of the people and the army, and all that depends on the results of the summer military campaign.

Will Zelensky be able to stop the destruction of Ukraine’s energy system and economy? Will the Ukrainian authorities be able to carry out total mobilization, and will the Ukrainian army stop the advance of the Russian army and launch a counter-offensive? Will Western assistance provide Kyiv with the necessary level of armaments and provide an acceptable standard of living for the population, or will impoverishment continue and accelerate? Will Zelensky be able to provide the population with heat and energy to survive the coming winter?

Negative answers to these questions – even to one of them – mean the end of Zelensky. “President is not real!” – that call could lead to the ruthless removal of Zelensky and very sad consequences for him and his close circle.

And that will bring the collapse of modern Ukraine that now not only Russia is interested in.