Refugees typically are not able to, or choose not to return to their countries of origin following the cessation of conflict. But there may be a greater case for Ukrainian refugees to return.
Since the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022, almost 5.5 million Ukrainians have sought refuge in states across Europe, and many more have been internally displaced within Ukraine – this makes it the largest human displacement in the world right now. However, an increasing number of these refugees are returning home – there have been over 3.5 million border crossings into Ukraine as of the 12th of July 2022. Furthermore, in a UNHCR survey, a majority of Ukrainian refugees indicated that they hope to return home as soon as possible. This raises an important question: in reality, will a substantial number of Ukrainian refugees return home following the conflict? While refugees typically do not return home after seeking refuge abroad, there is a case to be made that those who have fled the conflict in Ukraine are more likely to be returnees.
Why do refugees typically not return to their countries of origin?
Repatriation is promoted by the UNHCR, intergovernmental organisations and governments as the best and most durable solution to refugee issues, based on the assumption that these refugees will return voluntarily. The right of return is also a right fully recognised by international law. However, returning home is not always easy nor desired by refugees resettled in host countries.
This for two predominant reasons: firstly, they have settled in their host countries, and secondly, elements that would have drawn them back to their country of origin no longer exist following conflict. Therefore, there is a dual effect where refugees are pulled to the host country, and pushed away from their countries of origin.
Migrants who seek refuge in host countries escaping conflict are often not able to safely return for many years after their escape. Conflicts and their aftermaths often last for several years, if not decades. This means that those who flee them must make new roots in their host countries to live normal lives. They integrate into and form communities, and raise families in their places of refuge. Child refugees and children of refugees enrol in local education, and refugees of working age establish careers. Furthermore, policies which promote assimilation over integration imply a loss of refugees’ cultural identity, making a return to their country of origin more complicated.
Moreover, when their place of origin becomes a safe place to return to, there may be many lingering reasons to not make the return. There may be unique risks to those who had fled the conflict for having sought refuge, and not stayed to help the cause of, or to end the conflict. The lives the migrants lived may also be impossible to return to, even in peace time. Their livelihoods are likely to have been destroyed during violent conflict, including places of work, community spaces, and residences. Moreover, their families, friends and wider communities are likely to have also been displaced and unlikely to return, particularly if reasons for leaving were based on persecution. Finally, re-integration poses unique challenges to returnees due to cultural and language barriers following assimilation into their host country. Beyond these more complex reasons against returning to their countries and places of origin, refugees of lower incomes may simply not be able to afford to return home, even if they wish to.
Are Ukrainian Refugees an Exception?
Despite there being this multitude of reasons that refugees typically do not return to their countries and cities of origin, there are indications that Ukrainian refugees will not follow this trend as strictly, evident by the growing number of refugees returning to the country currently.
The Ukrainian conflict and resulting migrant influx differs from other conflicts in that Ukraine has overwhelming support from European and Western allies. There has been and will be more international effort put into rebuilding Ukraine following the cessation of armed conflict, likely making it a desirable place to return to, unlike other ex-conflict areas where livelihoods are permanently destroyed without the same level of aid from the West to rebuild. The West’s dedication to supporting Ukraine is also reflected by the European Union granting it candidate status.
Furthermore, although all refugees typically flee to neighbouring countries, Ukrainian refugees in particular flee to nearby countries that are cheaper to return from than refugees of other conflicts who are more likely to cross continents to seek refuge.
Lastly, because the conflict in Ukraine is relatively recent, apart from the conflict in the Donbas region, the refugees will not have been able to make roots as deep as refugees who fled from conflicts which started longer ago. However, this depends on how long the conflict in Ukraine prevails – should it last as long as conflicts elsewhere do, likely given the slow progress in peace talks, then the refugees who fled Ukraine will have likely developed deep roots in their host countries.
Nonetheless, there is a clear argument to be made that Ukrainian refugees will not have pull factors to their host countries and push factors from their country of origin to the same extent as many other refugees face, making their return more likely, although still uncertain.
