How stable is Southeast Asia? Southeast Asia is renowned for its cultural and geographical diversity. Since 1967, the region has formed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which consists of 10 Southeast Asian countries: Brunei; Cambodia; Indonesia; Laos; Malaysia; Myanmar; Philippines; Singapore; Thailand; and Vietnam. The ASEAN decision making process requires members to see eye to eye before moving forward on an issue. However, differences in opinion among members can make it difficult to find solutions to problems. For example, ASEAN has struggled to respond to Myanmar’s military takeover and China’s claims in the South China Sea. Together, ASEAN represents the EU’s third-largest trading partner outside Europe. The region is viewed as becoming the world’s next centre of growth fueled by tech-driven development led by Singapore and Thailand, and a youthful population. Yet, amidst this promising environment, the region’s political situation continues to raise questions about the region’s long-term stability. The following are some updates on the region’s stability:
Thailand’s Political Drama
For almost a decade, Thailand – the second-largest Southeast Asian economy had been under the rule of the military-backed parties, led by General Prayuth Chan-ocha who conducted a coup that ousted a democratically-elected government, which had Yingluck Shinawatra as the Prime Minister in 2014. To understand the situation currently we need to look at developments over the past year. The May 2023 election witnessed the Move Forward Party, Thailand’s reformist opposition and youngest party led by Pita Limcharoenrat, winning 152 out of 500 seats and the largest share of votes in a general election. Pheu Thai Party, also an opposition party, that came second in the election by winning 141 seats, had formed a coalition government with Move Forward Party along with four other smaller parties, nominating Limcharoenrat as Prime Minister. Pheu Thai is led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the niece of Yingluck and daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s former Prime Ministers in exile. This has briefly sparked hope for the country’s democratic reform.
However, the proposed coalition was not enough to outvote its opponents and the 250 senators appointed by General Chan-ocha. The military and its supporters announced they would not accept any equation involving the Move Forward Party. After having been rejected twice, the Move Forward Party stepped back and allowed the Pheu Thai Party to form a government and nominate their own prime ministerial candidate. Pheu Thai then announced a coalition with ten other parties, some connected to the military, without Move Forward. This solution passed the senate votes, making Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial nominee: Srettha Thavisin, Thailand’s thirtieth prime minister. At the same time, Thaksin Shinawatra returned to Thailand after 15 years in exile; he was then jailed on alleged corruption charges and released on parole.
Less than a year after Thavisin was appointed as a prime minister, Thailand’s constitutional court dismissed him for appointing a former lawyer who served jail time in his cabinet. A week before, the Move Forward party was dissolved over its pledge to reform the Thai lèse majesté law, and Pita Limcharoenrat was banned from politics for 10 years. The court recognised the action to be equivalent to calling for “the destruction of the constitutional monarchy”.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has no previous experience in politics, became the next PM nominee by the Pheu Thai Party. She then gained support from the former rivals of her party and the Shinawatra family, and now became Thailand’s 31st and youngest prime minister.
The stability of Paetongtarn’s prime ministerial reign will be questionable as all of the Shinawatra’s prime ministers have all been disposed of by coup d’état.
Myanmar’s Civil War
The current and ongoing conflict in Myanmar began in February 2021 when the country’s military: Tatmadaw seized power in a coup which immediately stopped the country’s progress towards democracy. The coup leaders claimed the landslide victory of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy 2020 election involved fraud. Nonetheless, these allegations were widely dismissed by independent observers. As a result, massive protests took place across Myanmar, involving millions taking to the streets to demand the restoration of democracy. The military replied with deadly violence and by conducting home raids and detaining anyone suspected of supporting the pro-democracy movement.
The coup also sparked armed resistance as citizens formed People’s Defense Forces to oppose the junta. Some collaborated with established ethnic armed organisations that have long fought against the military’s dominance. This widespread resistance has prevented the military from fully controlling the country, but even more violent ways have been used to eliminate the opposing views. Consequently, over 2.6 million people became internally displaced and Aung San Suu Kyi has been detained and sentenced to 20 years in jail, but additional cases against her are ongoing and could extend her prison time by decades.
In 2023, China as a neighbouring country had been attempting to act as a mediator in the conflict and a ceasefire was announced in December of that year, but the fighting along the China-Myanmar border continued.
As of now, the three anti-coup groups in Shan State have overrun dozens of military posts and seized control of border crossings and the roads carrying trade with China. These insurgent groups have had ambitions to expand their territory for a long time. Although the military has deployed artillery bombardments and airstrikes, it still fails to regain power and recover its lost ground. With these setbacks, the military looks increasingly weak. China which normally tries to limit the influence of these ethnic groups has not prevented this operation from happening. The reason could be that thousands of Chinese and other nations citizens have been forced to illegally work in the scam centres in Shan State. Myanmar’s military group has not acted on this, while the insurgent groups announced their aims to get rid of those.
International Influence on Southeast Asia
For centuries, the relationships between China and some Southeast Asian countries (the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia) has been worsened due to the issue of sovereignty and resource exploitation in one of the most important, yet contested ocean spaces in the world: the South China Sea. China claims the largest proportion of territory in an area marked by its “nine-dash line“, which extends hundreds of miles south and east from Hainan, China’s most southerly province. The claims to maritime areas led the Philippines to challenge China in the international courts in 2016, where the Philippines then won, resulting in the tribunal dismissing China’s nine-dashed line claim. However, China rejected this tribunal ruling.
More recently, the tensions between the Philippines and China heightened since there have been a series of violent troop clashes in the South China Sea in recent months. Meanwhile, the United States has frequently conducted military exercises and patrols in the area to uphold its “free and open Indo-Pacific” policy, advocating unrestricted navigation in international waters.
Despite the ongoing South China Sea dispute, approximately half of China’s regional investment went to Southeast Asia last year, with Indonesia being the largest recipient. This is because of China’s interest in re-entering Indonesian e-commerce after Indonesian regulators forced TikTok to split its shopping features from its main video-sharing functions.
In the past few decades, Southeast Asia has become a manufacturing hub which attracts foreign direct investment from Western firms due to relatively cheap labour, the small cost of investment and the low cost of living. Lately, though, lots of East Asian firms (Chinese, Japanese and Korean), also find the region attractive for investment. Common investment destinations include Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand; though the latter is becoming less attractive due to its current and soon-expected policy to raise the Thai minimum wage.
Although Southeast Asia’s economic future is seen as bright thanks to the development potential the region’s major nations possess which also makes it a popular international investment destination, it still hinges on the interplay of various regional stability factors. If democracy cannot be restored and people’s voices not be heard, the dictatorship cycle will never be broken. Plus, it would just be impossible for countries to regain international trust, damaging the socio-economic image of Southeast Asia.
