In the past week, there have been several notable developments pertinent to both the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine and the persisting tensions throughout the region. Below, we offer key insights into the latest events shaping the conflict. 

Sanctions on Persons Undermining West Bank Stability

On February 1, 2024, President Biden issued an Executive Order imposing financial sanctions and asset freezing against four Israelis accused of attacking Palestinians and escalating violence against civilians in the West Bank. In a statement by the United States Department of State regarding the Executive Order, the four Israelis have been identified as David Chai Chasdai, Einan Tanjil, Shalom Zicherman, Yinon Levi. According to the Order, any property or interests in property of the aforementioned individuals that are within the U.S. or in possession of U.S. persons now must be blocked and reported to the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, all entities owned over fifty percent, directly or indirectly, by those individuals must be blocked, all transactions by U.S. persons or within the U.S. that involve property or interests in property by the individuals are prohibited, and the four individuals will not be allowed to enter the United States. Furthermore, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued an alert to financial institutions to identify and report any suspicious activity related to potential financing of extremist settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. U.S. officials are currently evaluating whether to impose similar sanctions on others involved in attacks in the area. 

The U.K. has now also imposed sanctions against four West Bank settlers involved in violence against Palestinians, one of whom was also sanctioned by the USA. U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said the four “are involved in some of the most appalling human rights abuses. We must be clear about what is happening here.”

The French Foreign Ministry said it will impose sanctions on 28 settlers who have used violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank.

In response to the sanctions, Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “there’s a joint American, British and Arab effort to establish a terrorist state” next to Israel.

US President Biden is reportedly frustrated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s uncompromising approach to the conflict. But has resisted internal pressure from aides and Democratic allies to do more to restrain Israel’s campaign.

Current Casualty Figures 

As of February 12th, 2024, at 1:30 GMT, the casualty figures for those killed since October 7th are as follows:

• In Gaza, at least 28,340 people have been killed, over 67,984 have been injured, and over 7,000 are missing. According to a U.N. commission, one in every 100 people in Gaza was killed in the first 100 days of the war, a rate higher than any other armed conflict in the 21st century. 
• In the West Bank, at least 390 people have been killed and over 4,450 have been injured.
• In Israel, about 1,139 people have been killed and at least 8,730 have been injured since October 7th. However, if Israel’s soldiers subsequently killed in Gaza are included the number is higher. Israel has lost 225 additional soldiers since it moved into Gaza as of 4 February 2024

Israel Rejects Hamas’ Plan – Can There Still be an Agreement?

On Wednesday, February 7th, 2024, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the latest offer from Hamas for a ceasefire and return of hostages in the Gaza Strip. The offer was developed from prior proposals delivered to Hamas following discussions in Paris between mediators from Qatar, Egypt, the U.S. and Israel. The Hamas response included a 4.5 month ceasefire in which all hostages would be freed, Israel would withdraw all troops from Gaza, and an agreement could be reached to end the war.

The Hamas approach included three phases. During the first 45 days, all of Israel’s female hostages, men under 19 years of age, and the elderly or sick would be freed in exchange for Palestinian women and children held in Israel’s jails. Once Israel then removes its troops from Gaza’s populated areas, the second phase begins, in which all remaining male hostages will be released and Israel would withdraw its troops completely from Gaza. During the third phase, the remains of the dead would be exchanged. 

Netanyahu referred to the position as  “delusional”, promising to continue the military assault until complete victory is realized in Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has, however, suggested that a truce agreement may still be possible, following a meeting between him and Premier Netanyahu. Antony Blinken also met with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas earlier in the week to discuss the urgent need to reduce tensions in the region. A Hamas delegation traveled to Cairo on Thursday for further ceasefire talks with Egypt and Qatar. 

Saudi Arabia says “No” until Israel recognises a Palestinian State

On February 6th, Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry released a statement rejecting what they perceived as the U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby’s optimistic comments in a press briefing that suggested that normalization may occur prior to a ceasefire. In the statement, the foreign ministry wrote that “the kingdom has communicated its firm position to the U.S. administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip”.  The foreign ministry also reiterated its call for the United Nations Security Council to recognize the Palestinian state in an expedited process on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Prior to the October 7th attack, the United States had been working to encourage normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. After the attack, Saudi Arabian officials stressed that Israeli-Palestinian peace and the protection of the rights of Palestinians was necessary before continuing with the normalization deal.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reiterated the kingdom’s strong interest in pursuing normalization but that in order to do so, the conflict in Gaza must end with a clear and credible path to the establishment of Palestinian statehood. While Israel’s president has stated that normalization would be a key aspect of ending the war with Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly told Blinken that he is not prepared to make any deals that allow for Palestinian statehood.

Israel Turns its Attention to Rafah

On February 2nd, Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant stated that the military has defeated Hamas in Khan Younis and now intends to conduct similar operations in Rafah. Amidst the violence, Israel previously asked Palestinians located in the north to travel south, as it was to be a designated safe area. The defense minister’s plans now leave no safe place in the region. Israel’s intentions are of particular international concern because in addition to approximately 1.5 million civilians currently in shelter in the region facing threats of attack, much of the international humanitarian aid for Gaza enters through Rafah’s border crossing with Egypt. Furthermore, Egypt has long opposed allowing Palestinians to enter their territory due to fears that Palestinians would not be able to return to Gaza after fleeing and due to broader security concerns at large. Israel dropped leaflets over Rafah on Monday warning that they planned to bomb the area, without giving instructions on where civilians should evacuate. The bombing commenced on Thursday.

On Tuesday morning Israel’s forces rescued two hostages, Louis Norberto Har, 70, and Fernando Marman, 60, who were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nir Yitzhak on October 7. The two were held in an apartment in Rafah. 67 people were killed during the rescue operation.

Guterres Appoints Panel to Review UNRWA Allegations

On January 29th, Israel shared documents with several foreign governments that included allegations that twelve employees of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) were associated with the October 7th, 2023 attack on Israel. The allegations, which have not yet been made public, state that the accused employees took part in the attacks in varying degrees (they have been withheld from public view by Israel, the US State Department, and several media organisations including CNN who have viewed them secretly). No intelligence or evidence has been provided to the UNWRA or the United Nations Office of Internal Oversight Services to corroborate Israel’s claims, but the UN ended the contracts with all accused staff members. Following these unsubstantiated and unverified accusations published by CNN and others, multiple states, including the United Kingdom and the United States, have paused funding for the program.

On February 5th, 2024, UN Secretary General António Guterres appointed an independent panel to assess the UNRWA and its neutrality and to respond to these allegations. The panel will commence work on 14th February and will work in parallel with an investigation currently underway by the UN Office of Internal Oversight Services. 

The latest allegations against the UNRWA include statements from military officials in Israel that they had discovered a network of tunnels under the Gaza headquarters of the UNRWA. The military also stated that Hamas had stored electrical supplies in the tunnels, the headquarters supplied electricity to the tunnels, and that they had discovered weapons in rooms within the UNRWA building. Phillippe Lazzarini, head of the UNRWA, has stated that the agency was unaware of what was underneath the headquarters and that it had evacuated on October 12th, 2023 after orders from Israel to leave Gaza City. Lazzarini has stated that the allegations “merit an independent inquiry that is currently not possible to undertake given Gaza is an active war zone”.

Dozens of protesters blocked aid convoys at the Nitzana border crossing, claiming the supplies go directly to Hamas.

U.S. and Allies Begin Strikes Against “Iran-Backed” Militias

On February 2nd, the U.S. struck facilities in Iraq and Syria, including over 85 targets across seven facilities utilized by groups allegedly associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force in response to the aerial drone strikes claimed by an umbrella group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) that killed three American service members and injured over thirty others at a support base in Northeast Jordan. U.S. officials believe the attack may have come from the Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful militias of the IRI.

On February 3rd, the U.S. and its allies subsequently hit 36 Ansar Allah (commonly referred to as the Houthi movement), targets at 13 different locations in Yemen. The following day, U.S. forces struck an anti-ship cruise missile belonging to “Houthi” (Ansar Allah) militants.

On February 7th, the U.S. Central Command conducted a unilateral strike in Baghdad that killed a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander Wissam Muhammed Sabir Al-Saadi, known as Abu Baqir Al-Saadi, and two other members of the militia. In a statement provided by U.S. Central Command, it stated that Al-Saadi was responsible for “directly planning and participating in attacks on U.S. forces in the region”.

Officials in Iraq have condemned the U.S. airstrike. The military spokesman for Iraq’s prime minister, Yehia Rasool, has stated that “the international coalition is completely overstepping the reasons and objectives for which it is present on our territory”, in reference to the US-led military coalition formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State group. Repeated U.S. strikes against these Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq are encouraging the Baghdad government to end cooperation with the coalition, according to Rasool. U.S. military presence in the state is also increasingly questioned. Talks regarding the end of the mission were, however, suspended after the drone strike on American forces on January 28th.

Other officials in Iraq have also condemned the February 7th attack, including a pro-Iran parliamentary bloc calling it an attack on “Iraqi sovereignty”. The Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani stated that the strike was a “threat to regional and international peace and stability”. U.S. officials have stated that they do not wish a wider conflict to develop in the Middle East, but international concerns about regional escalations remain.

• The NCF Secretary General’s latest podcast on the Gaza issue is on this link

Featured image above by u_vljwy2lwpt from Pixabay