The longstanding rule of President Bashar al-Assad over Syria ended on December 8, 2024, marking a major turn of events in the Middle East.
Status of polity, society and economy
Since the end of Bashar al-Assad’s administration, a transitional government has been established with Mohammed al-Bashar as the interim Prime Minister and Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani) as the de facto head of state until March 1, 2025. The transitional government claims it intends to keep the state functioning, stabilise the country by providing basic services to civilians, and prevent a power struggle between armed groups over state resources and ministries.
Interim Prime Minister Mohammad al-Bashar is a technocrat who previously headed the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) backed Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib, Syria’s northwest province. De facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (a.k.a. Julani) is a Syrian revolutionary, military commander and politician currently leading the HTS.
There are apprehensions about the new transitional government. Political instability is a major issue. As per de facto leader al-Sharaa’s remarks, drafting a new constitution could take up to three years, and holding elections could take up to four years. Presumably such remarks seek to reassure the world that the government has moved away from its roots in Islamist militancy and is aiming to establish peace and order in the region. However, the fear of replacing the Bashar al-Assad government with a hardline Islamist government still looms large. Recently, the education ministry announced potential changes in the school curriculum such as removing poems on women and love, and less contentiously, changing parts that glorify the previous Assad government. The group has made it clear that it intends to impose Islamic law. What remains uncertain is if it will show flexibility and actually move towards democracy.
Currently, the USD nine billion Syrian economy is in poor condition. Fourteen years of conflict resulting in lasting damage to critical infrastructure, large-scale exodus of the country’s citizens, and international sanctions, are some of the causes making Syria one of the poorest nations in the Middle East. Its global GDP rankings are low, the Syrian currency is significantly devalued leading to a huge dip in purchasing power, and there is hyperinflation along with high rates of unemployment, resulting in many Syrians living in abject poverty. The transitional government has inherited a crisis-hit economy.
However, the transitional government claims to be taking emergency measures to improve the economy. To begin with, it has appointed a new Central Bank governor, Maysaa Sabrine, the first woman to take the role of the governor. The Finance Minister also announced that the government would hike salaries for many public sector employees by 400 per cent by February. By the end of the year, there are claims that a well-designed tax system may be introduced. Leader al-Sharaa also hopes that the United States may lift the sanctions during President-elect Donald Trump’s rule. Syria’s new authorities have also apparently begun cracking down on the illegal trade of Captagon. The new government has also started replacing senior staff in other key positions with loyalists. Sometimes this has been done controversially, as in the appointment of a new manager for Damascus airport who, by his own admission, has no aviation experience of any kind.
Syria’s diplomatic outreach
As part of seeking regional and international support, the Syrian government is holding meetings and discussions with several leaders from around the world. On December 20, 2024, senior United States diplomats visited Damascus and met with Leader al-Sharaa to discuss the future of Syria and the support the U.S. could offer. It was the first in-person and official meeting between Washington and Syria’s new rulers. Following this, the US dropped the USD 10 million reward for the arrest of leader al-Sharaa. Recently, it has also opened the way for transactions needed for humanitarian purposes, while the sanctions continue to stay. The U.S. Treasury issued a general licence for six months that authorises certain transactions with the interim government, including some energy sales.
In the same week, Türkiye’s and Jordan’s Foreign Ministers met Syria’s new leader and expressed support for Syria in its path to reconstruction. Leader al-Sharaa also held talks with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, hoping for strategic partnerships between both. Ukraine, a global producer and exporter of grain and oilseeds, has said it wants to restore relations with Syria following the overthrow of former President al-Assad, who is currently in exile in Russia.
In recent days, interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani made diplomatic visits to the Middle Eastern nations of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. Syria’s avowed vision of forming an inclusive and stable government, and fostering strategic partnerships and resetting regional ties has been discussed with the Arab world. The new Foreign Minister called on the United States to lift crippling sanctions on his country, during his visit to Qatar. Jordan and Syria discussed securing their border, combatting arms and drug smuggling, and working to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State militants.
Germany’s and France’s foreign ministers also held talks with leader al-Sharaa in the Syrian capital on Jan 3rd, 2025. This marked the first trip by important European officials since the fall of the al-Assad government. The European delegation signalled an openness to working with the new government while also stressing that the new government should take a peaceful approach and protect the minorities.
Status of Refugees
Since December 8, 2024, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that over 115,000 Syrians have returned to Syria, mainly from Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon. While most host countries are offering protection to Syrian refugees, cracks have begun to appear. On January 5, 2025, Germany signalled a change to the Syrian refugee policy. Citing the changed situation in Syria after the fall of the al-Assad government, Germany has suggested that some Syrians who have sought refuge in Germany may have to return to their country if there is no need for any protection anymore.
There is also large-scale internal displacement of residents, within Syria. The UNHCR estimates about 664,000 individuals to have been newly internally displaced, majorly from the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. However, nearly 486,000 persons have also returned to their areas of origin, mainly in the Hama governorate. At the same time, large numbers of Allawites, and their families, have been returning to Latakia as they lose their homes which were linked to their employment in the Syrian armed forces. Prevailing armed clashes, increased criminal activity, and border incursions continue to present challenges for civilians within Syria.
Israel expands its presence in Syria
While Syrians were celebrating the fall of the government, Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the removal of President al-Assad as a historic day, and a win against its rivals, mainly Iran and its proxies. Since then, Israel has been expanding its presence in Syria. On the same day as the rebel forces took over from the al-Assad government, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to seize the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from the rest of Syria, justifying the incursion as ensuring that no hostile force embeds itself next to the border of Israel. Israel’s troops also occupied Mount Hermon, the highest peak in Golan Heights, thus bringing them very close to the Syrian capital Damascus, which is only about 22 miles away. Israel’s latest military campaign in Syria also includes extensive aerial and naval strikes on Syrian military targets across the country. On January 2, 2025, Israel took control of the vital water source for Qunietra, the Al-Mantara Dam, which lies in the UN-patrolled buffer zone of Golan Heights.
Russia’s presence in Syria
Russia has been a long-standing ally of the al-Assad government and had formerly intervened in the 13-year civil war to keep him in power. It comes as no surprise that post the fall, Bashar al-Assad and his family have been given asylum in Moscow.
Russia has had a strong military foothold in Syria for many years, and the fall of the government has not seemed to change that. Its key military bases in Syria are an air base in Latakia and a naval base in Tartous. According to U.S. and Western intelligence, Russia has begun withdrawing some military equipment from Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. Russia is also consolidating its bases in Libya. However, there is no indication that it will lose its bases in Tartous and Latakia.
Syria’s path ahead
Bashar al-Assad’s fall is a critical turning point for Syria and the broader Middle East. The road ahead is fraught with challenges. The potential for political instability, concerns over governance by hardline factions, and the dire economic situation coupled with the poor status of the refugees pose significant challenges to Syria’s recovery. Regional and international stakeholders will play a crucial role in stabilising Syria and addressing the humanitarian challenges.
Image above by fahed kiwan from Pixabay
