Eleven years have passed since Syria imploded into a civil war that has left thousands of casualties, the greatest contemporary refugee crisis, and a collapsed economy. Nevertheless, the conflict is far from over.

Under the current status quo, Syria is de facto partitioned into three grand spheres of influence. The first is controlled by President Bashar al-Assad, who, with the help of Russia, has been able to recapture a large part of the country. The second is in the northeast, where the Kurds control the area and fight off ISIS with Washington’s help. Finally, Turkey and elements of the opposition forces command Syria’s northwest.

Although fighting has decreased, last month Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey is planning its fourth major military operation in Syria. This would target the northern cities of Tal Rifaat and Manbij which are under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF is an umbrella group that predominantly comprises the People’s Protection Unit (YPG), its Kurdish military branch.

However, Erdogan considers the YPG to be an extension of the PKK, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, a group designated as terrorist by the EU and the US, that has been in conflict with the Turkish government for over 30 years. Hence, with the operation, Ankara aims to push away the Kurds to establish a 30 km safe zone from its southern border to neutralise any perceived threat posed by the group.

Undermining Regional Stability

Nevertheless, another major operation would only further de-stabilise the already fragile Syrian situation. It would generate further displacement and instability, worsening the humanitarian and refugee crises. Additionally, this enhanced instability could be exploited by radical groups like Tahrir al-Sham, and ISIS to expand their influence and extremist ideas and to enlarge their support and forces.

Due to these concerns, the governments of Iran, Russia, the US, as well as the Kurds themselves, have all publicly urged Ankara to desist from such an operation. The SDF has specially voiced their worries as they have been a crucial actor in neutralising the regional threat that ISIS poses. With Washington’s help, the SDF was successful in dismantling the remaining ISIL caliphate in Al-Baghuz in 2019. Nevertheless, ISIS has not disappeared and has shifted its modus operandi to insurgent tactics.

Hence, Syria’s warring parties fear that a Turkish attack would allow for the expansion of the Islamic State. As the announced operation would target the Kurdish-led group, it would weaken the fighting capacity of the SDF, limiting their ability to contain and counter ISIS in the northeast of Syria. Another major operation would provide the terrorist group with the perfect environment to bolster their influence. Thus, undermining the region’s stability and hindering future peace prospects.

Humanitarian Crisis

Furthermore, a possible Turkish operation would also worsen the already acute humanitarian situation in Syria. The eleven-year-long conflict has produced one of the worst contemporary refugee and humanitarian crises. 14.6 million people are in need of assistance, the record highest since the conflict started. Moreover, 6.9 million Syrians have been displaced internally, and another 5.6 million are refugees abroad.

Additionally, with now a collapsed economy, 90% of the Syrian population lives under the poverty line and with rising food prices, 13.9 million Syrians are expected to be food insecure in 2022. Hence, a new Turkish military operation would only worsen this situation by further displacing more people due to the violence, possibly increasing the number of people in need of humanitarian aid.

Due to the fragile situation, in the last session of the Astana talks, that took place last week, Tehran and Moscow once again tried to persuade Erdogan to put off the operation, but Ankara was once again defiant on the topic. The Turkish president is reluctant on his position as in the Sochi Memorandum of 2019, it was agreed between Turkey and Moscow, that Russian and Syrian forces would remove YPG elements from 30 km of the Turkish-Syrian border, and from the cities of Manbij and Tal Rifaat. However, this still has not happened.

Why Now?

As both Moscow and Washington are seeking stronger support from Erdogan regarding Ukraine, the Turkish President is probably aiming to leverage a win in Syria. Moreover, he also wants to establish a safe zone so refugees that are currently residing in Turkey can return. Such would alleviate the increasing discontent regarding Syrian migrants in Turkey. Hence, it would ease domestic pressures that are increasingly important to the government in the face of the current economic crisis and the upcoming elections of 2023. Sadly, all of these factors may make a new Turkish offensive unpreventable.

This announcement has pulled two opposing groups closer together, President Assad and the Kurds. Although the Kurds have for long been an opposition faction against the Syrian government, they have now announced renewed cooperation with them to fend off the potential Turkish attack. Due to this, Russia and President Assad have mobilised their forces closer to the Turkish border. The SDF has done the same. It is worth noting that the Kurds control oil-rich areas that are of interest to Damascus, Moscow and Ankara.

Therefore, further direct confrontation should be avoided. It would worsen the already acute humanitarian and refugee crises whilst generating instability that then can be exploited by terrorist groups. Additionally, it hinders potential peace prospects. A deal that prevents the further suffering of Syrians should be prioritised instead of greater violence.