Taiwan strait tension has likely decreased because of U.S. President Joe Biden’s statement issued in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On 21st September, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed his view that the United States would like to maintain peace and stability in cross-strait relations and continues to oppose either side to changing the status quo unilaterally at the U.N. General Assembly.

Recent developments on the Taiwan Straits

On 21st September, speaking at the U.N. General Assembly, U.S. President Joe Biden stated his stance that if China utilises military force to invade Taiwan, U.S. forces would defend Taiwan. Since Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. House of Representatives Speaker visited Taiwan on 2nd August 2022, China has continuously and repeatedly stressed that China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity was violated by Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. China considered Nancy Pelosi’s visit as a challenge to the One China policy that is not only the diplomatic acknowledgement of China’s position but also a vital cornerstone of US-China relations.

China conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan from 4th August to 10th August. However, alongside the evolution of the international situation, China has softened its attitude to military reunification with Taiwan. Its rhetoric shifted from military reunification to peaceful reunification.

The Tension between Taiwan Strait and the One-China Policy

The Taiwan Strait tension is based on an argument about relations between China and Taiwan. The One China policy can be traced back to 1949, the Kuomintang (KMT) party was defeated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Chinese Civil War. The KMT retreated to Taiwan and made Taiwan its seat of government, meanwhile, the CCP began ruling in mainland China as the People’s Republic of China. Both parties said it represented all of China initially, however, the shifting winds started at the beginning of the 1970s.

On 25th October 1971, the U.N. General Assembly passed U.N. Resolution 2758, which replaced the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan’s official name) with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a permanent member of the Security Council in the United Nations. Resolution 2758 asserts the Republic of China could not represent people in mainland China which is governed by the People’s Republic of China. Since the 1970s, many countries cut off diplomatic relations with Taiwan but still maintained informal relations with Taiwan via trade offices or cultural institutes, including the U.S.

The U.S maintains informal relations with Taiwan, regarding Taiwan as its strategic ally that prevents the Communist Party from expanding, since the period of Cold War.

Relations between the U.S. and China

The relations between U.S. and Taiwan are regulated by three joint communiqués which agreed with China, and the Taiwan Relations Act that was passed by Congress in 1979. The Taiwan Relations Act plays an important role in shaping U.S. strategy and policy toward Taiwan and it has allowed the U.S. to maintain a flexible balance in its relations across the Taiwan Strait. It is a unique Act that protects the relations between the U.S. and Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic relations and allows arms sales to Taiwan, including missile defense systems and technology. It not only represents the best commercial interests safeguards and fundamental security of the U.S. but also allows the U.S. to promote liberal democracy in Taiwan.

China has constantly declared the one-China policy and inseparable integrity. To stress that China attaches great importance to territorial integrity, the Anti-Secession Law was passed by the 3rd Session of the 10th National People’s Congress on March 14th, 2005. It emphasized that the cross-Strait issue is China’s internal affair based on Taiwan being an inseparable part of China. Moreover, it unilaterally states that China can adopt military means to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity under some conditions. Worth noticing is that one of the conditions is when “the complete exhaustion of possibilities for peaceful reunification”, China can utilise military force to reunify with Taiwan.

Both China and The U.S. have their interpretations of Resolution 2758. On the one hand, China reiterated that Resolution 2758 explicitly recognises the government in Beijing represents the ‘one China’ as the lawful representative of the whole of China. On the other hand, the U.S. noted that Resolution 2758 does not establish that Taiwan is a province of the PRC and opposes the PRC’s attempts to redefine it.

The position of Taiwan

The reality in Taiwan is that it is an autonomous Island no matter how people explain Resolution 2758. Nearly 24 million people live in Taiwan, and the Taiwanese adhere to democracy and human rights law. Taiwanese also do not seek conflict in the Pacific Ocean though they do not want to live under the rule of an autocratic government. After the Hong Kong bloody protest movement happened, the Taiwanese started to believe that peaceful reunification which China is an unstable contract that could be changed at any time. It boosted more Taiwanese opposition to China’s political agenda of peaceful reunification.

Besides, not only the Chinese military drills but also the Ukraine war aroused the awareness of erupting war in the international community. Along with the cost of war rising, for example the economic sanctions involved, the Chinese government recently shifted its stance from ‘military reunification’ to ‘peaceful reunification’ which retains a space for peaceful dialogue.

Economic Sanctions

The U.S. government adopts the economic sanction approach to raise the cost of launching a war. Similar to the economic sanction on Russia, the U.S. banks could exit the Chinese market if China attacked Taiwan. According to a Financial Time report, the heads of the three largest U.S. banks: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup have committed to follow the demand of the U.S. government to pull out of China if Beijing launched an attack on Taiwan.

Earlier this year, in response to Russia’s move into Ukraine, the U.S. banks pulled out of Russia and made an effort to expand the scope and intensity of economic sanctions with a coalition of allies that includes the EU, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada, who are working to oppose to Russia’s conflict with Ukraine by cutting its access to necessary technology and funding. The consequences of economic sanction that happened on Russia has diminished China’s ambition to attack Taiwan, although China is a way larger economy than Russia. The World Bank indicated that China’s gross fixed capital formation at 20 times Russia’s in 2020. Because of global economic inflation and the rising price of energy, China might not be able to afford any economic sanctions caused by warfare.

It seems like the Taiwan Strait tension might calm down. However, the Unification of Taiwan is part of Chinese President Xi’s plan for the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’. Chinese President Xi told his military to develop the ability to achieve military reunification with Taiwan by 2027.