The Gaza Ceasefire Deal between Israel and Hamas, which came into effect in January 2025, raised hope of an end to the conflict. However, just two days after the ceasefire began, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Operation “Iron Wall” in Jenin, on the West Bank. Meanwhile, the first phase of the ceasefire deal expired on March 1, and negotiation talks face growing uncertainty as Israel and Hamas struggle to find common ground.

A statement from Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office on March 2 revealed that U.S. envoy Witkoff proposed extending the first phase of the ceasefire until the end of Ramadan and Passover, a proposal accepted by Israel’s government. However, Hamas rejected this, insisting on moving to the second phase as originally agreed, which requires both sides to disarm and continue prisoner-hostage exchanges under a permanent ceasefire.

In response, Prime Minister’s office declared that Israel will not negotiate further unless Hamas revises its stance on the new deal. The Prime Minister also warned that if no agreement is reached, Hamas would face “consequences” and Israel would also block the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

As of March 10, negotiations started in Qatar, with Prime Minister Netanyahu sending Israel’s envoy to push for an extension of the first phase of the agreement.

As political and humanitarian crises intensify, will the truce endure, or is it nearing collapse?

Ceasefire Deal – the First Phase

The Gaza Ceasefire Deal was initially mooted in May 2024. The agreement is structured around three consecutive and interconnected stages, with the first phase having been scheduled to begin on January 19. This initial stage focuses on the exchange of hostages and prisoners.

On the Palestinian side, the release of Israeli hostages was marked by public ceremonies organized by Hamas. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, condemned the “parading of coffins” during an event in Nuseirat, calling it disrespectful to the deceased and their families. In an official statement, Guterres urged both parties, “To respect the remains of the dead and to return them to their relatives, consistent with applicable obligations under international humanitarian law and human rights law.”

As a reply on Saturday, January 22, Hamas released six more hostages. However, Israel suspended the handover of over 600 Palestinian prisoners who were scheduled to be released in exchange. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would not proceed with the prisoner releases until the safe release of the next group of hostages was guaranteed:

“In light of Hamas’s repeated violations, including the ceremonies that humiliate our hostages and the cynical exploitation of our hostages for propaganda purposes, it has been decided to delay the release of terrorists that was planned for yesterday until the release of the next hostages has been assured, and without the humiliating ceremonies.”

Following Israel’s statement, Hamas released the bodies of four more hostages who had been killed on January 27. In response, Israel freed 600 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. While the exchange continues, the treatment of captives by both sides raises serious humanitarian concerns. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk insists the ceasefire must hold and urges Israel to take accountability not just for Palestine, but for the credibility of international institutions. He emphasizes that the ongoing conflict will have lasting consequences for future generations.

As the week came to an end, the intensive negotiations regarding the second phase had begun in Cairo between Israel, Qatar, and the USA. All parties involved appear to support the ceasefire, however, the final decision remains uncertain as phase two requires a “cessation of military and hostile operations.” Rather than progressing to the next phase, Israel is pressuring Hamas to choose to extend the first phase, allowing the exchange process to continue without fully committing to a cessation of military operations. Though this would leave Hamas with no cards to play in the long term to avoid the resumption of war.

Hamas had already said on Saturday 1st March that it rejected Israel’s “formulation” of an extension to the first phase of the hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, under which the ceasefire would be maintained and further living hostages released in return for Palestinian prisoners.

Israel’s Opposition Leader: “Egypt Should Control Gaza”

Israel’s opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, speaking at a conference in Washington, D.C., outlined his plan for Gaza’s future. Referring to Egypt’s historical role in ruling and protecting Gaza, he proposed that “Egypt will assume responsibility for managing the Gaza Strip for 15 years.” The opposition leader pointed to Egypt’s economic struggles and foreign debt, suggesting that if Egypt takes control of Gaza during its reconstruction in the next 15 years, “its external debt of $155 billion will be cancelled by the international community” in return.

Authorities in Cairo have responded unfavourably to Yair Lapid’s proposal. However, his plan could start new discussions on the peace process. Yair Lapid also criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu for failing to establish “an effective administration in Gaza that would push Hamas out.” Acknowledging that neither Israel nor Hamas can resolve the situation as it stands, he stressed the need for alternative roadmaps. While his proposal has not been formally shared with officials in Israel, Egypt, or Gaza, if given serious consideration, it could influence the future of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

After Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office announced the decision to halt ceasefire negotiations until Hamas agrees to extend the first phase, opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the Prime Minister of exploiting the conflict “because his personal and political needs take precedence over everything else,” and added: “Netanyahu is constantly looking for ways to keep all Israeli citizens under extraordinary pressure and in a state of emergency, as it serves his political needs.”

Israel’s Tanks in the West Bank

After the ceasefire deal took effect, the IDF announced an intensified military operation on February 22. While Israel’s operations in the West Bank had already been ongoing, this marks the first time in over two decades that tanks have been deployed in the region, the first time since the Second Intifada. Tanks surrounded the town of Jenin, in the northern West Bank and Israel’s forces raided the neighbouring town of Qabatiya. Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed that troops would remain in the West Bank for at least a year, with efforts to target Palestinian militant groups.

In a statement, the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Israel’s deployment of tanks, describing it as a ‘continuation of genocide, displacement, and annexation.’ The ministry stated:

“…The Ministry views these developments—including Katz’s statements, the deployment of tanks, and the deliberate intimidation of defenseless civilians—as a grave escalation in the West Bank and a flagrant attempt to entrench genocide and forced displacement against our unarmed people. The Ministry renews its urgent calls on the international community to intervene immediately to curb Israel’s unchecked aggression, which continues in blatant violation of international law and signed agreements, and compel it to end its assault on the Palestinian people and their fundamental rights, foremost among them is their inalienable right to remain on their land.”

The operation imposed a 48-hour curfew. Qabatiya Mayor Ahmad Zakarneh claims that significant damage was done to the town’s infrastructure, Martyrs’ Cemetery and local businesses. While the IDF regards the operation as a necessary measure for regional stability, it also poses risks to the fragile ceasefire. Humanitarian concerns have also been raised, as the operation may impact civilians and damage refugee establishments.

Israel’s International Actions

The CDU/CSU emerged as the leading party in Germany’s awaited early Bundestag elections. The results suggest that Friedrich Merz is set to become the next Chancellor once a coalition is formed. Following the announcement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that he had a “warm phone call” with the Chancellor-designate Merz and “congratulated him on his victory.” Despite being a party to the Rome Statute of the ICJ, the Chancellor-designate extended an invitation to Netanyahu for a diplomatic visit in Germany, “in overt defiance of the scandalous International Criminal Court decision to label the Prime Minister a war criminal.”

Inside Israel: Cabinet Changes and the Public Opinion

On March 5, Eyal Zamir took command of the IDF following the resignation of Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, who resigned after the military’s failure to prevent continous attacks by Hamas. During the handover ceremony, Zamir, dressed in his military uniform as a symbol of Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas, pledged to achieve victory against the group: “The IDF has achieved impressive achievements on the battlefield. We won battles in Gaza and Lebanon, we struck far away in Yemen and Iran. Hamas received a heavy blow, but it has not yet been defeated. The mission has not yet been completed.” The incoming IDF Chief of Staff promises to bring the remaining hostages back home.

While the IDF Chief of Staff is committed to taking all necessary measures to protect Israel and its citizens, public opinion polls indicate that many Israelis oppose the continuation of the war and do not support Prime Minister Netanyahu remaining in office. According to the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute, 72.5% of the general public believe that the Prime Minister should take responsibility and resign. 73% of the general public and 56% of right-wing supporters also favor that the second phase of the deal with Hamas should proceed, which includes ending the war and returning the hostages.

Trump’s Vision for Gaza and Palestinians

On 24 February, the US President’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff spoke about the ceasefire and the President’s vision for Gaza (involving the relocation of Gaza’s population). Witkoff stated that the first phase of the ceasefire should be extended, and that efforts were underway to achieve that. He announced a diplomatic trip this week to discuss the details, with planned visits to Qatar, Egypt, Israel, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Addressing concerns about Trump’s plan for Gaza, Witkoff denied that it constituted an “eviction,” describing it instead as a reconstruction initiative. He stated that Gaza would not be safe for the next 15 to 20 years, and a relocation is a realistic necessity for Gazans. However, when asked whether they would eventually be allowed to return, he did not provide a clear answer. He emphasized that President Trump is focused on humanitarian concerns and is committed to mediate for a solution that serves both sides.

US President Donald Trump has meanwhile shared an AI-generated video on his social media platform, “Truth Social”, depicting a futuristic version of Gaza. The video, accompanied by an AI-generated song with lyrics like “Trump’s Gaza shining bright, golden future, a brand new light,” presents the region as a luxury resort.

The visuals include belly dancers, President Trump sunbathing alongside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Elon Musk tossing money to children. The video has sparked criticism for its portrayal of Gaza, because it disrespects the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis.

Although promising to bring peace to the region, President Trump has also revoked National Security Memorandum-20, signed by the former President Joe Biden. The Memorandum required the US government to report potential violations of international law, involving U.S.-supplied weapons by allies including Israel. It was signed in February 2024 after criticism of Israel’s use of American bombs in Gaza.

The US State Department also told Congress on 28 February that it plans to sell nearly $3 billion in weapons to Israel, including thousands of bombs and $295 million worth of armored bulldozers that had been held up by the previous administration over human rights concerns.

On February 27, President Trump held a joint conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House. While Prime Minister Starmer extended his support for a two-state solution as the “only way for a lasting peace,” Trump did not share details about his envoy in Cairo but said, “We have some pretty good talks going on” when asked whether phase two of the deal would happen.

Following the collapse of negotiations in Cairo, the United States began direct talks with Hamas, aiming to secure the release of American hostages held in Gaza and to negotiate a broader agreement to prevent the resumption of war. The White House confirmed that “Israel was consulted on this matter”. The secret talks being held by Trump’s hostage envoy Adam Boehler are unprecedented. The US designated Hamas as a terror group in 1997.

Meanwhile President Trump demanded that Hamas “release all of the hostages now, not later,” including the remains of dead hostages, “or it is over” for Hamas. “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” he said. “Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD! Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!”

Arab League Summit on Gaza’s Rebuilding

In response to President Trump’s proposal to transform Gaza into a “Middle East Riviera,” an urgent Arab League Summit convened in Cairo to present an alternative, Arab-led reconstruction plan. Unlike Trump’s vision, which involves relocating Gaza’s population, this plan aims to rebuild the area by 2030 while ensuring that its residents remain. The proposal includes the establishment of temporary housing units for displaced Gazans, the recycling of rubble for reconstruction, and the use of debris as infill to expand Gaza’s Mediterranean coastline. The reconstruction plan is estimated to cost 53 million US dollars.

In a joint statement, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs from the UK, Germany, France, and Italy expressed their support for this “realistic” plan, welcoming it as a crucial step toward the recovery and reconstruction of Gaza. In contrast, both the US and Israel argue that the Arab-led alternative fails to address the realities on the ground in Gaza. “Residents cannot humanely live in a territory covered in debris and unexploded ordnance,” said President Trump’s spokesperson for National Security Council.

The Humanitarian Aspect

Israel mourns its losses, specifically the Bibas family. During the October 7 attacks, Yarden and Shiri Bibas, along with their two children were taken hostage. Their bodies were returned to Israel during the ceasefire, with only Yarden found alive. Prime Minister Netanyahu cited their case as an example of Hamas’s brutality against civilians, as their children were aged 4 and 9 months. The Bibas family has requested that their funeral remain private and strictly apolitical, barring all politicians, including Premier Netanyahu, from attending. The family condemned the political discourse surrounding their loss, calling it “abuse of a family that has endured 16 months of hell and still faces the worst ahead.”

However, the humanitarian crisis persists in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank also. The reality remains unchanged that civilians bear the heaviest burden, a consequence that is immoral even in the context of Israel-Hamas war. Health officials in Gaza have reported that seven babies have died from hypothermia, warning that more lives will be lost if humanitarian aid does not reach the strip soon. The WHO confirms that temperatures in Gaza are low, and with inadequate shelter, the entire strip has become an open-air prison, exposing people to harsh winter conditions.

Israel’s Prime Minister is also facing criticism from Hamas, which has accused him of “cheap blackmail” in the recent negotiations following his threat to cut all humanitarian aid to the region. The World Food Program (WFP) highlights the critical need for aid to continue flowing into the region. However, the BBC reports that aid agencies confirm no assistance has been allowed in since March 2, right after Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the decision on Israel’s side.

The UN Secretary-General “urges all parties to exercise maximum restraint and find a way forward on the next phase.”

As Prime Minister Netanyahu sent negotiators to Doha to discuss the ceasefire agreement and its extension, Israel cut off electricity to Gaza. On an X post, Israel’s Minister of Energy announced the decision: “I have now signed an order to cut off electricity to the Gaza Strip immediately. Enough talk, it’s time for action!” Hamas condemned the decision, labeling it “a desperate attempt to pressure our people and their resistance through cheap and unacceptable blackmail tactics,” referencing the Doha talks and efforts to pressure Hamas into accepting the extension of the First Phase.”

Final Remarks

With tensions still high and neither side willing to fully compromise, will this ceasefire serve as a stepping stone to long-term peace, or is it only a pause before another wave of conflict? The outcomes of the current negotiations will provide more clarity to this question.

So far, the international pressure has been insufficient, but shifting dynamics could reshape the situation. With President Trump’s term underway, his peace talks with President Putin, the China-EU relations, and the Arab League’s engagement in the region may influence the trajectory of this conflict. The Israel-Palestine conflict is not just a regional issue. It remains a focal point in the geopolitical, economic, and military agendas of global powers.

Recent negotiations once again highlight the urgent need for global actors to intervene and provide necessary aid to civilians, hostages, and others that are trapped in this devastating war. The war continues to take an immense toll on innocent lives, making it a moral imperative for the international community to unite in ensuring justice and protection, especially for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

Beyond the power struggles, it is undeniable that the violence has left thousands displaced and an entire community in desperate need of aid. Peace must not only mean the absence of war; it must be about creating a future where no more innocent lives are lost to the ambitions of those in power.

The latest position to which the NCF has subscribed at the United Nations can be found here.