The NCF Research Team has been providing regular updates on the Russo-Ukrainian war, focusing on developments on the ground and discussing the latest peace initiatives. In this article, Research Officer Klara Ismail provides the most recent updates and brings to light the international impact of continued warfare between the two countries.

As the Russo-Ukrainian war extends past the two-and-a-half year mark, the conflict continues to claim victims and displace millions. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that a total of 1 million Russians and Ukrainians are either dead or injured since the escalation began in February 2022.

In Ukraine, population loss is becoming a very real consequence of the conflict and is one of the reasons why President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to mobilise men aged 18-25, instead keeping the eligible age range between 25-60.

Zelenskyy Abroad: The “Victory Plan” Tour Continues

Following his recent visit to the US, the Ukrainian President travelled to the UK alongside Mark Rutte, the new NATO secretary-general, to meet Prime Minister Kier Starmer on October 10th. Zelenskyy and Rutte also went on to France, Italy, and Germany. On October 17th, Zelenskyy presented his plan at an EU summit in Brussels, with all 27 EU leaders attending.

At Downing Street, Starmer and Zelenskyy discussed the use of British-supplied missiles on Russian territory. The topic was in line with the Ukraine President’s repeated calls to allow the hitting of Russian targets within Russian territory with Western-supplied missiles  – a request which has been met with apprehension by the EU and the West so far.

Zelenskyy’s Europe tour comes at a critical point in time for the future of Ukrainian aid. With the US presidential elections looming, a Trump presidency could significantly reduce US support.

The push for Western support also comes amidst reports of North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine, sparking “concern” in the White House over the extent of pro-Kremlin international support. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has also recently held meetings with Russian state officials. Last week, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in the PRC for an official visit to discuss bilateral cooperation between the two states, as well as shared naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean.

Wider Impacts

Refugees:

The Russo-Ukrainian war has created Europe’s largest refugee crisis since WWII. As of October 2024, the UNHCR recorded over 6.7 million external Ukrainian refugees, while over 3.6 million Ukrainians have been displaced internally.

While Poland is a popular first destination for fleeing Ukrainians, many enter Poland with the intent of continuing on to Germany.

Source: UNHR Data: Ukraine Refugee Situation. Map showing the numbers of recorded refugees across Europe. Germany and Russia have received the highest number, with over 1 million refugees recorded in both countries respectively.

Grain:

Ukraine is one of the top global producers of grain and has been dubbed the world’s breadbasket. Prior to the conflict, around 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain left through the country’s ports on the Black Sea. Yet Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s Black Sea ports since the conflict began.

The consequences of Ukraine’s reduced grain exports are global. Over half of Ukraine’s food exports go to lower-income countries, predominantly in Africa and the Middle East. The subsequent spike in grain prices hit the countries who needed Ukrainian grain the hardest.

Initially, an agreement known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative (or ‘grain deal’) was struck between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations, in order to continue Ukraine’s maritime grain shipments during war-time. However, in July 2023, Russia pulled out of the deal.

Russia stated that any vessel bound for Ukraine would be viewed as a potential military target, and Ukraine was forced to establish new export routes. With the help of the EU’s Solidarity Lanes scheme, Ukraine has since established a new export corridor route along the Black Sea’s shallow Western coastline. Along this route, the waters are too shallow for Russian submarines to operate, and cargo ships pass through the territorial waters of two NATO countries: Romania and Bulgaria.

The scheme was a success, with the country’s vice prime minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reporting that between July 2023 and February 2024, 19 million tons of grain were shipped to 42 countries. Meanwhile, Russia has continued to attack Ukrainian grain ports and storage facilities, with 30 attacks recorded in the same period.

Oil:

In June 2024, Kyiv imposed sanctions on Moscow’s large oil firm, Lukoil, by blocking the transit of pipeline crude sold to Central Europe. This came as an unwelcome surprise to the EU, who had earlier set up an exemption to Russian oil sanctions in order to give Russian-reliant countries extra time to wean off supplies.

Some Ukrainians argue that the EU’s stance on Russian oil sanctions was not severe enough. Inna Sovsun, a Ukrainian lawmaker, declares, “it’s actually absurd to allow them to make this money by transporting this oil through Ukrainian territory, if the money is then being used to kill us”. She adds that the pipeline alone carries 200,000 barrels of crude per day.

Hungary was the worst hit by Kyiv’s decision, with the country relying on Russia for 70 percent of its oil imports. However, despite the EU’s requests, Prime Minister Victor Orbán was in no rush to wean off Russian oil. Hungary and Russia have only been getting friendlier, and Orbán has consistently supported the Kremlin by vetoing crucial EU decisions regarding Ukrainian support.

Hungary: The Thorn in Ukraine’s Side

Since 2023, Hungary has held a veto on military assistance for Ukraine, which has built up a massive backlog of €6.6 billion worth of financial aid unable to reach Kyiv. The situation has become an enormous source of frustration in Brussels, and EU officials are exploring alternative ways for Ukraine to access the military fund without the need for all member states to agree to the decision.

The Hungarian veto dates back to May 2023 when Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency blacklisted Hungary’s OTP Bank as an “international sponsor of war.” Tensions have since been high between Budapest and Kyiv, with Hungarian and Russian officials slamming Ukraine’s June oil pipeline sanctions as “political”.

Recently, the Political Director of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Balázs Orbán (no relation), came under fire for calling Ukraine’s response to the Russian incursion “irresponsible” because, “based on ’56, [Hungary] wouldn’t have done what President Zelenskyy did two and a half years ago”. In 1956, the Hungarian Revolution against the Soviet Republic took place, and lasted 12 days before being crushed by Soviet troops.

The statement sparked outrage from Hungarians and Ukrainians alike, who interpreted Balázs Orbán’s comment to be rejecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and the country’s right to self defence. Further, that Orbán’s government were playing into Russian hands by encouraging anti-Ukrainian narratives.

NATO Ascension: The Route to foster Peace or War?

Part of Zelenskyy’s victory plan includes a formal invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. NATO members are in agreement over Ukraine’s eventual ascension, however Zelenskyy is adamant that “an invitation to NATO now” is crucial, and no comprehensive plan has been reached.

Zelenskyy argues that Russia has taken advantage of Ukraine’s lack of NATO membership, and that it contributed to the escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The Ukrainian president stated that a NATO invitation is “truly fundamental for peace” in Ukraine.

However, NATO members do not feel the same way. If Ukraine were to join NATO during war-time, it is likely that Article 5, the principle of collective defence, would be invoked: an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies. This would technically throw all NATO members into a war with Russia, potentially igniting wider international conflict.