On the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with discussions on the political situation, international support, and potential future scenarios. The podcast emphasises the importance of peace negotiations and the need for continuous efforts toward peace. It also discusses the potential role of China in mediating the conflict. Listen to the full episode through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Podcast Addict and Buzzsprout.

In this episode, we delve into the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the prospects for a peaceful resolution. The news of Ukraine receiving funding from the European Union is a ray of hope, although it falls short of expectations. The United States, on the other hand, is facing obstacles from Congress in providing the much-needed support. Despite the grim situation on the ground with constant attacks and escalating death tolls, peace talks seem unlikely with no strong desire among NATO allies or the U.S. to end the war.

Russia remains steadfast in its position, with President Putin making it clear that the gains made will not be abandoned. Many Russians are hopeful that a change in U.S. leadership, with President Trump returning, could bring about a shift in policy towards the conflict. Based on the current analysis, it seems highly likely that Donald Trump will win the next U.S. election.

We also discuss the successful efforts made by EU leaders to pressure Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban to support aid for Ukraine. Both sides face significant challenges, with Ukraine struggling to recruit new personnel and the war taking a toll on Russia. The staunch Russian stance may have been further hardened due to the potential return of President Trump. Meanwhile, the world’s attention has turned towards the Gaza War, leaving Ukraine to bear the burden alone.

Amidst this complex landscape, finding a compromise becomes essential. Early on in the war, leaders like President Macron of France actively worked towards a peace process. With Macron unable to stand for re-election, there is an opportunity for him or someone else, possibly even China, to step forward and take a leading role in pursuing peace. Without such intervention, the conflict will persist, necessitating further training for Ukrainian soldiers to face the ongoing challenges.

Realistically, the options on the table are a negotiated peace or a stalemate, as an outright victory for either Ukraine or Russia appears highly unlikely. The question remains, how much longer will this continue, and how many more lives will be lost? While the acceptance of a negotiated peace by the United States, particularly under Biden’s administration, seems unlikely, there might be a greater chance of progress under Trump’s leadership or with new leadership in the UK, such as Keir Starmer from the Labour Party.

Ideally, a stalemate or a phased reduction in violence would be preferable to the current situation of ceaseless bloodshed. Both Ukraine and Russia would greatly benefit from a cessation of hostilities and a period of relative calm while awaiting the appropriate time for peace talks. It’s time to reassess the situation and halt the unnecessary loss of life, even if a fully effective negotiated peace isn’t currently feasible.

Transcript

[0:01] Well now, here we are, and it’s February, only just, but it’s February 2024, and the news is out that Ukraine is to get European Union funding.
And that’s comforting for Ukraine, because its backs are against the wall, it’s in a tough position.
Mind you, it’s not as much as the news headlines would suggest, because it’s $50 billion over four years. Let’s put that in context.
So that means that all the European countries are giving sort of just over 10 billion euros or about 10 billion pounds.
Britain is giving a couple of billion pounds all by itself.
Ukraine was dreaming of a massive $50, or 60 billion from the United States, but that’s a daydream because of what?

Congress Blocks US Funding for Ukraine

[0:51] Because Congress is blocking it and it doesn’t seem there’s much of a way around that.
Let’s try and put this in perspective.
The annual government spending of Britain is around 1,200 billion pounds, or 1,500 billion euros.

[1:15] So it’s a lot (the 50 million euros over four years). It’s a lot of money. It’ll buy a lot of bombs. But what?
Ukraine nonetheless confronts a grim 2024. The battle is stalemated.
Attacks on both sides, persistent Ukrainian attacks on Russia, and Russian attacks on Ukraine.
But there has been little change in the front lines.
In the past year, there’s been no major Ukraine offensive, no major Russian offensive that has made a difference.

[1:47] Plenty and plenty and plenty of Russians and Ukrainians have died.
And it’s the old men now on the battlefront in Ukraine.
Terrible. The death toll is massive. And we will fight until the last Ukrainian.
We will stand with Ukraine until there’s nobody left to stand there.

Tough Year Ahead for Ukraine, No Peace Talks in Sight

[2:08] I mean, one thing is clear. It’s going to be a tough year for Ukraine.
There are no possibilities of peace talks as things stand.
I mean, a couple of weeks ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said that there was no desire amongst NATO allies or the U.S. itself to end the war in Ukraine.
Well, that’s right. There isn’t. There are no significant peace talks at all.
The misery is ongoing, of course, but we’re not going to tolerate peace talks.
Not if any concessions are to be made, and we can’t have any concessions.
Russia is digging in its heels, but.

[2:49] Putin also, a couple of weeks ago, said that Russia would never be forced to abandon the gains it’s made. Well, it’s an election year for Putin.

[2:58] It’s an election year for everybody, isn’t it? For Britain, for America.
Not that Putin needs to care about his elections, but Russia won’t willingly abandon the gains it’s made.
It may have to make concessions, however, concerning the Donbas the day peace comes. Of course, there is a form of peace that amounts to non-peace, like the peace between India and Pakistan, a kind of line of control.
And that may be the likely outcome for Ukraine if nothing can be done.

[3:29] And what are the Russians doing? The Russians, I mean, everybody’s dug in now.
It’s winter, but the war will restart in earnest once we get past Easter, won’t it?
And then the killing will continue, and many more Russian and Ukrainian young men, old men, men, will die.

Russians Waiting for Trump’s Election to End the War

[3:51] The Russians are, of course, waiting for President Joe Biden to go and be replaced by President Donald Trump, and they dream that when that happens, their troubles will be at an end, and to some degree they will because Donald Trump has made it clear that he’s not going to support ongoing war in Ukraine.
Whether he’s going to push peace stalks, he might do. I don’t know.
You can never tell with Trump, but he likes Russia.
Whatever. One year from now, the U.S. will have a new president, and it’ll be President Donald Trump. Oh, you think he might lose?

[4:29] Dream on. Just wise up.

[4:34] It’s coming. It’s not an if or but.
Goodness sake, wake up. Donald Trump is going to win the next U.S. election.

Trump’s Inevitable Win and Orban’s Concession for Aid

[4:43] I mean, if that’s not self-evident to you, then I don’t know what planet you live on.
And all the court cases in the world are not going to stop that.
It’s interesting, though, that Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime Prime Minister caved into pressure from the other EU leaders.
What does that mean? It means they bribed him to get their big package of aid for Ukraine.

[5:10] I wonder what the bribe was. But I don’t imagine he would have done anything without a major concession.
I mean, he was holed up with the Germans, the Italians, and the French.
And they just put the squeeze on him, or at least made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.
Because he was blocking the EU aid for Ukraine. So it would be interesting to know what they said to him.

Ukraine President Zelensky Not Satisfied with Aid Package

[5:37] Anyway, they made concessions. he’ll be smiling.
I’m not sure Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky is smiling, though. It’s just not enough.
It’s not going to get them out of the jam that they are in.
So what? I mean, both sides face historic challenges.
Ukraine has aging forces. It’s difficult to recruit new personnel.
And this war is having a severe impact on Russia.

Russia Takes Harder Stance, Focus Shifts from Ukraine

[6:08] The Russian stance is hardened, by the way. I think that’s because they see Donald Trump coming.
But they have hardened their attitude. And they’re coming out with lines like, “NATO can’t have advanced bases in Eastern Europe if there’s to be peace.”
Well, that’s a lot of nonsense.

[6:25] But Russia is taking a harder stance. There’s a subtext to all of this, of course.
The whole world no longer cares about Ukraine like it did because of the Gaza War.
The Gaza War has taken the focus of the media, taken the focus of the voters, taken the focus of the leaders of the world, and Ukraine is paying the price.
Is there anybody that can ride to the rescue?
China possibly could be instrumental in facilitating a peaceful resolution of this whole mess.
I think China would like to be instrumental.

Possibility of China Facilitating Peace Resolution

[7:06] Compromise is difficult. What would be the compromise?
The compromise, just to reiterate it, would be some form of autonomy for the Russian-aligned people in eastern Ukraine, and surrendering the Crimean Peninsula.
I mean, that’s the compromise that’s on the cards. It’s not a particularly ideal one [7:29] from anybody’s point of view. But compromise, I guess, is essential, unless you have a kind of stalemate peace.
It’s interesting, isn’t it, that in the early days of the war, people like France’s President Macron were very active in facilitating steps towards a peace process.
Well, Macron is not going to be able to stand again for election.
It might be a good time for him to step forward and do something now, possibly.
Would he? I don’t know. Macron or China.
But somebody needs to focus on peace, or we can just march along, in which case Ukraine needs more training for its soldiers to face the difficulties they face in terms of the battlefield they’re having. I mean, there are so few of them.

[8:22] There is nothing else to hope for: peace or stalemate.
Ukraine’s victory is impossible.
Russian victory is impossible.

Ukraine’s Victory or Russian Conquest Impossible

[8:33] These are not options on the cards. Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine.
Ukraine is not strong enough to kick Russia out. So those two options are not options.
So peace or stalemate. And the question is, how soon? How many more lives?
If stalemate means just a line of control and stopping the war and going to just a cold war situation.

[9:01] Peace means a negotiated peace. Ukraine, I think, would accept a negotiated peace.
Russia would accept a negotiated peace. It would be a hard set of negotiations.
But will Britain and America? America certainly won’t accept a negotiated peace whilst Biden’s in power, but they may under Donald Trump, and of course, we’ll have a new leadership in the United Kingdom at that point, and the Labour Party will be ruling the UK, under Keir Starmer.

New Leadership in the UK, Potential Shift in Peace Negotiations

[9:34] He’s not my flavor of the month. So you have Trump and Keir Starmer and the Anglo-American alliance.
Remember how much in the lead the United Kingdom has been on Ukraine when it comes to stiffening everybody’s will, right back from the days of Boris Johnson.
We are the chief drum beater for war.
And currently, we give more aid than anyone else, including America, by the way.
Currently, the United Kingdom gives more aid than anyone else in terms of a single government.
Of course, if you lump the European money together, then it matches Britain’s and it’s more.

[10:18] So where do we go? It would be good to think that there would be a kind of stalemate or peace.
Okay, we’re not going to have, we’re not in a position for an effective negotiated peace.
It’d be nice to see people like China or France stepping forward to try and discuss peace.
But we’re not going to see real steps on that for another year.
So we’ve got another year of war.
But it would be nice if that war could be phased back a little.

Another Year of War, Phased Back Conflict Desirable

[10:47] I mean, it’s impossible for a victory.

[10:51] So let’s just phase it back a little, cool it. I mean, Russia and Ukraine are exchanging prisoners.
They could reduce the attacks on each other and just hold the line for a year until peace talks are possible.
Wouldn’t that be nice if they just held the line for a year, a line of control, and stopped beating and thumping the hell out of each other?
I mean, wouldn’t that be better for Ukraine and Russia? Surely? I’d have thought so.
What’s the point of more killing when neither side is capable of winning?
Neither side is capable of winning.
So what’s the point of just killing so many Russian young men and killing the frontline troops in Ukraine?

The Massive Cost of the Conflict in Ukraine

[11:40] That’s the way it’s going, isn’t it? I mean, Ukraine’s paying a massive cost.
Let’s just stop for a while, freeze the line of control, and stop throwing things at each other until America becomes willing to see peace talks, and Britain becomes willing to see peace talks.
Just stop. You can’t win. Stop. Why not, eh?
Would it make sense? You don’t have to have peace.
Just stop dying. Might as well, wouldn’t you say?