HEADING FOR A RUNOFF IN KNIFE-EDGE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: Turkey’s fiercely contested presidential election appears likely to go to a second round on 28 May after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan failed to secure 50% of votes cast to decisively extend his 20-year rule. With 97.95% of votes counted, state-run Anadolu news agency reported Erdoğan had 49.34% of votes, compared to 44.99% for his main opponent, Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu – meaning neither could claim an outright win. Kiliçdaroğlu welcomed the prospect of a runoff vote and said his party would triumph.

The presidential and legislative elections in Turkey took place this Sunday, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is up against unprecedented opposition that might bring an end to his two-decade rule.

Less than three months after the massive earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people and caused more than 5.9 million people to be displaced throughout southern Turkey and northern Syria, voters were to decide the future of Turkey’s democracy on May 14. The earthquake came hard on the heels of a severe economic downturn. Erdoğan’s government is looking shaky.

There were a record number of voters this year, and Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu, the head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) is the major opposition candidate. The Republican People’s Party is a Kemalist and social democratic political party. Kiliçdaroğlu, the main opposition candidate for president, leads the “Six-Nation Alliance”, a coalition of opposition groups. Erdoğan and Kiliçdaroğlu ran neck-and-neck.

Background

On May 14, Turkey held both parliamentary and presidential elections. A president will be chosen by voters for a five-year term. Early elections were announced for May 14, 2023 by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The fatal earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria, had cast some doubt on the timing and prompted calls for a later election. However the elections have now taken place. 64 million voters were expected to participate in the elections this year—60.9 million in Turkey and 3.2 million overseas.

The date of May 14 was chosen for its symbolism, as it was on that day in 1950 that the Democratic Party first defeated the Kemalist Party (CHP). President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan intended to again defeat the coalition led by the Kemalist Party as he has done regularly for the past 20 years.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the largest opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, and the candidate of the Six Nation’s Alliance was outperforming Erdoğan in polls, indicating that support for the president is dwindling, owing mostly to rising inflation and social discontent. Though things do not appear to be going well for the ruling party, the “Table of Six” is also on shaky ground.
Two months before the elections, there was an internal debate on the choice of candidate, driving the coalition close to collapse, which highlighted how frail the unity of these parties actually is.

2018 elections

On June 24, 2018, Turkey held its last general election. The election marked the country’s shift from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, as narrowly backed by voters in the disputed 2017 constitutional referendum. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had been president since 2014, heads the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Erdoğan won that election and retained his office. However for the first time since June 2015, the Turkish Grand National Assembly’s absolute majority was lost by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), requiring it to rely on its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) of Devlet Bahçeli, to enact legislation. The opposition now claims that re-electing Erdoğan could push Turkey closer to authoritarianism.

2023 Elections

The election will have a significant impact on both Middle Eastern and European security. Whoever wins the election will determine Turkey’s place in NATO, its ties to the US, the EU, and Russia, its immigration policies, Ankara’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict, and how it manages tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The first round of voting took place on May 14 but no candidate received more than 50% of the vote (President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received 49.5 percent, while his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 44.89 percent), forcing Turkey into an untested second round. The third candidate, Sinan Ogan of the ATA Alliance, won 5.17 percent of the vote, while Muharrem Ince of the Homeland Party, who withdrew from the race three days prior to the election but was still on the ballot, received 0.44 percent.

In a presidential runoff election that was unusual at the time, Recep Tayyip Erdoan won a victory over his opponent Kemal Klçdarolu in the second round of voting on May 28. The election demonstrated the sharp and enduring political polarisation in Turkey.

The top electoral authority in Turkey declared late on Sunday that Erdoan had earned 52.14% of the votes while Klçdarolu had received 47.86% after 99.43% of the ballots had been tallied.

The fact that 2023 is the Republic of Turkey’s centennial year added further significance to the elections. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the creator of the nation, also founded the Republican People’s Party (CHP), which ruled the nation for 27 years mostly as a one-party system.

The Contenders in the race

The second vote in the presidential race this year features just two contenders. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of Republican People’s Party and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, incumbent President of Turkey (2014-present), leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Two significant political coalitions in the forthcoming presidential elections need consideration:

• The first, the People’s Alliance, is led by the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose party has held power since 2002. It is made up of two parties. He receives a lot of criticism for his authoritarian and religious impulses. The alliance formed by Erdoğan is comprised of groups with comparable political philosophies.
• The Six Nation’s Alliance, often known as the Table of Six or the Other Major Political Alliance, has a goal of advancing democratic ideals and a stance against Erdoğan. The Table of Six coalition consists of political parties with various political philosophies. Their shared desire to unseat Erdoğan as president is primarily what links them. There are urgent issues facing Turkey, such as the economy (which is experiencing 85% inflation) and the fallout from the terrible earthquakes, which resulted in the deaths of nearly 47,000 Turks. It is anticipated that the Table of Six will have trouble deciding on foreign policy issues. Making use of this, Erdoğan asserts that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is not only ineligible to serve as president, but also that the loose opposition coalition that backs him “cannot rule Turkey.”

Voter’s concern

The health of the economy and the devastation brought on by the earthquake rank high among voters’ worries. Turkey was already dealing with price increases and a currency crisis that caused inflation to reach 85% in October even before the earthquake in February. This had an effect on the general populace’s purchasing capacity and is the reason Erdoğan’s popularity has been eroded.

Voters are now choosing between candidates based on who they believe would be better able to handle the aftermath of the earthquake and protect the nation from future catastrophes. Erdoğan’s charisma has not had the anticipated electoral influence.

Voters are undoubtedly worried about Erdoğan’s move away from democracy, which the opposition has fought to reverse, in addition to the economy and how the government handles Turkey’s numerous natural catastrophes.

Turkish membership discussions with the EU

Turkey’s opposition is hopeful that by enacting liberalising measures in terms of rule of law, media freedoms, and depoliticization of the judiciary, it may restart the country’s EU membership negotiations, which have been frozen since 2018 due to the country’s democratic backsliding.

The opposition camp also vows to carry out rulings by the European Court of Human Rights that demand the release of two of Erdoğan’s most well-known prisoners: Selahattin Demirtas, co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, and Osman Kavala, a human rights advocate.

The coherence of the coalition will determine foreign policy. Except for the desire to remove Erdoğan, the parties in this coalition have nothing in common. They have a very different agenda, and this will affect foreign policy.

A number of nations, most notably France and Austria, are adamantly opposed to the concept of rekindling EU membership negotiations, suggesting that Europe is ill-equipped to deal with a new Turkey.

Opinion polls

A record number of people will vote in the elections in May.

Yener, the head of the Supreme Election Council, told Turkish media last month that this year will see close to five million first-time voters, the majority of whom will only be familiar with Erdoğan as leader.

According to a Metropoll study, Kılıçdaroğlu is now ahead of Erdoğan in the polls, albeit by a small margin. 55% of the electorate did not support Erdoğan in prior elections, but this does not guarantee that they will support Kılıçdaroğlu. It is unclear if Kılıçdaroğlu would be able to win over those of voters who abstain from voting for Erdoğan.

Erdoğan’s administration has suppressed dissent and imprisoned critics over the years, particularly those from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), who were accused of having ties to the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey, the US, and the EU all consider to be a terrorist organisation.

Despite not having a candidate for president, the HDP officially backed Kılıçdaroğlu on Friday, claiming that by doing so, the party is performing its “historical duty to both our tradition and to future generation.”

The HDP said that it is taking part in the Labour and Freedom Alliance in the parliamentary election after announcing in March that its candidates would be running under the Green Left Party due to  worries that their candidature might be outlawed. The Labour and Freedom Alliance was established in 2022 and is a left-leaning six-party coalition.

Other political concerns

Turkish presidents operated as heads of state inside a parliamentary system prior to the 2018 elections. Turkey established a presidential system in which the president serves as the head of state following the constitutional referendum in 2017. According to opposition lawmakers, Erdoğan cannot run for president again unless an early election is called by the Parliament in accordance with Article 116 of the constitution because he was elected twice — in 2014 and 2018. The 2018 election was Erdoğan’s first term under the new system, according to some jurists, and as a new office was created in 2018 despite the post’s name being similar, some claim he is eligible to run for office again.

A key topic in the election campaign is the earthquake in February 2023. In an effort to persuade voters that only his government, which was responsible for a construction boom that fueled economic growth, can help restore the areas, Erdoğan is basing his election campaign on promises to rebuild the devastated districts. However, the opposition is accusing him and his government, claiming that the buildings that collapsed were built by contractors who won fraudulent tenders and that there is no assurance that the new buildings won’t suffer the same fate.

Kılıçdaroğlu, a 74-year-old retired government servant who has been dubbed a “serial loser” by many, is regarded as a sincere politician who is also tolerant and amenable. Kılıçdaroğlu is frequently contrasted with Bülent Ecevit, the well-liked former prime minister who is credited with upholding Turkey’s status as “the most secular Muslim country in the world.”

Kılıçdaroğlu’s opposition supporters concentrate on matters like the economy, combating corruption, establishing a new parliament, bolstering the legal system, eliminating Erdoğan’s authoritarianism, and upholding human rights. The Table of Six coalition seeks to unite people from different socioeconomic and political backgrounds. The alliance’s main objective, according to Kılıçdaroğlu, also known as the “Turkish Gandhi,” is to bring wealth and peace to Turkey. He asserts that Turkey would become a happy country if the coalition wins the elections.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s rhetoric has grown more emotive and well-liked over time, especially during the current election campaign. This may be a sign of how extensively Erdoğan’s rhetorical approach has been embraced. Because of this and other factors, Erdoğan’s power to influence and govern Turkey’s present discourse is constrained and even diminished in comparison to earlier times.

Aftermath: What happens if Erdoğan loses?

Even if Erdoğan triumphs, his influence will be diminished.

If Erdoğan loses it may be bad for Israel. Erdoğan is expected to maintain Ankara’s engagement with regional players, notably Israel, if he wins. After the earthquake, Ankara started attempting to mend relations with Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, Syria, and even Greece. In an effort to improve Turkey’s economic predicament, Ankara may keep up these efforts even if Erdoğan is elected.

This election takes place 100 years after Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic was established, and if Erdoğan triumphs, he will have even more authority to influence the course of an 85 million-strong geostrategic heavyweight. In the West, there is concern that he would use this as an opportunity to advance a model that is more regionally hostile, religiously conservative, and centred on himself.

The fact that Erdoğan has unrestricted power in Turkey and that he relies heavily on campaign commitments that he might not be able to keep — like bringing inflation back below 10%, maintaining improved relations with regional players and neighbours, and speeding up the restoration of disaster zones — could pose problems for him.

Although ties with the West and Israel may be calmer and the rhetoric more relaxed if Kılıçdaroğlu wins, this does not necessarily mean that Turkey will be more stable. Kılıçdaroğlu’s resistance to Erdoğan’s programme of reconciliation, which he declared in June 2022, might become an issue if he gains power. Kılıçdaroğlu pledged to make Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Greece answer for actions taken against Turkey in the recent past. Kılıçdaroğlu asserted that “there is a cost for making our citizens martyrs in international waters.”

Kılıçdaroğlu stated a few weeks ago that Turkey must always support Palestine because to do differently would be a betrayal of Islam. These remarks may be another instance of Kılıçdaroğlu copying Erdoğan’s rhetorical style, but it is more likely that, as a leader, he would continue to support the Palestinians over Israel. Israel wants to strive to get back to the “golden age” of ties with Turkey before the Erdoğan administration. Israel must plan its expectations and choose its next moves in accordance with the fact that this aim is not feasible.

Except for their desire to remove Erdoğan, the parties in the opposition coalition have nothing in common. They have a very different agenda, and this will affect foreign policy.