A Middle East Peace Process is possible. It just requires the energy to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. Unfortunately, there is not much energy coming from either Israel or the US to hold the peace process now. The coalition government that was formed by eight parties a year ago faced up to its failure in maintaining a majority in parliament. The approaching election seems likely to bring former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back into office.
Political Background
Israel is going to hold its fifth election within less than four years, as a consequence of the political wranglings caused a vulnerable government that depended on giving higher stakes to the Arab minority in Israel. The coalition government contains eight parties ranging from far and mainstream rightists, centrists, leftists, and an Arab party who shared the same objective of keeping former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of power. After a 12-year run in power, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the parliamentary elections in 2021.
However, apart from the shared objective of the coalition government, obviously, the coalition government is not capable of generating a stable political situation for Israel. The division in the coalition government is around Palestinian issues, especially the bill to renew an important regulation governing West Bank settlers. The temporary regulation “Emergency Regulations – Judea and Samaria, Jurisdiction and Legal Aid” is renewed every few years to ensure that Israel’s settlers in the occupied West Bank receive separate and preferential treatment under Israeli law in contrast to the military rule that covers Palestine. After an Arab-Israeli member resigned from the coalition government, the coalition government became a minority in parliament and it only has 59 seats out of 120.
The Arab-Israeli member of the party, Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, said she could not support the coalition government due to the heads of the coalition deciding to strengthen their right flank and “disgracefully” harassing the community she comes from. Her departure pushed Israel back to the election loop; and on the other hand, it gave Benjamin Netanyahu a chance to get back on the campaign trail in the coming November election.
The upcoming November election
The upcoming election will be hold on the 1st of November, and it not only might bring Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back into power but also could generate the most far-right government in Israel’s history. Although the number of 61 seems not difficult to attain, the difficulty is greater than its appearance for Prime Minister Yair Lapid and others who are against Benjamin Netanyahu. Firstly, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the undisputed leader of the rightwing religious bloc and his party is powerful in parliament and outpolls other rivals by some margin.
Secondly, the Knesset threshold of 3.25% is an obstacle for many smaller parties. Benjamin Netanyahu and his three alliance parties in the ultra-Orthodox and nationalist religious camps all surpass the 3.25% threshold easily in every poll. On the other hand, the voter turnout in the Arab 20% of the population is a significant factor that decided whether Arab-Israeli parties could enter into the Knesset. Because the Arab nationalist Balad party refused a request by Hadash-Ta’al to sign a seat rational deal, it is not expected to pass the threshold in the election on the 1st of November, according to an opinion poll. Besides, it also means vote for the Balad party will likely go to waste. Since the disappointment of being used by the political class as a tool against Benjamin Netanyahu and a disagreement over seat rotations of the latest Joint List split, the voter turnout in the Arab community could be as low as 40%.
Thirdly, the rise of far-right Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit party and a racist politician Itamar Ben-Gvir has been tapped as a likely coalition partner by Benjamin Netanyahu. It without a doubt is an alarm bell for democracy. Some pro-Israel Democrats in the US Congress warned Jerusalem against allowing far-right Itamar Ben Gvir to attain further political gains. However, in order to improve Benjamin Netanyahu’s chance of returning to power, the Likud leader has arranged and encouraged a merger deal that ensured Itamar Ben Gvir’s extremist Otzma Yehudit would enter into the Knesset.
If the coalition with Itamar Ben-Gvir is achieved, the far-right Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit party is expected to win between 12 and 14 seats and position Itamar Ben-Gvir to gain a senior cabinet position. Furthermore, the hard-right and religious coalition would put the Arab minority on edge and probably lead to more serious conflict in the occupied West Bank. The election campaign is approaching the all-important sprint to the final line this week and Israeli citizens will vote on the 1st of November. The future of Israel is in the voters’ hands.
