As the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the evolving Israel-Palestinian situation capture the attention of mainstream media, Western countries rally for military and humanitarian support in these regions. Yet, looming in the background is a dangerous potential conflict in East Asia’s regional hotspot, Taiwan. While Taiwan operates as an independent political entity in practice, it remains under constant military threat from China, which claims sovereignty over the island. With China’s continuous economic and military advancements, there is a growing apprehension that the year 2027 marks a pivotal deadline for a potential Chinese invasion which aligns with the 100th anniversary of the founding of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Earlier this year, Taiwan announced plans to increase its total defence spending to a record £16.15 billion, equivalent to 2.6 per cent of GDP. Despite ongoing military reforms and increased defence budgets, Taiwan’s defence spending does not match that of countries facing similar existential threats, such as Israel, which allocated 4.5 per cent of its GDP for defence in 2022. Given the conflict in the Middle East, Taiwan closely monitors developments. Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng highlighted the abrupt eruption of the Hamas-Israel conflict, emphasizing the need for Taiwan to enhance its ability to forecast potential threats. This was prompted by the unprecedented attack on Israel by Hamas militants from Gaza, which, though this may seem surprising, Taiwan views as part of a broader campaign of intimidation and threats by China.
A significant military capability gap exists between Taiwan and China. China’s official defence budget now stands at £168 billion, nearly twelve times that of Taiwan’s defence spending. The military balance in the Taiwan Strait has undergone a substantial shift in favour of China, making it unrealistic to expect Taiwan to match China’s military expenditures on a one-to-one basis. CIA Director William Burns has underscored that the United States possesses intelligence indicating that Chinese President Xi has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to prepare for a potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
The United States has historically adhered to a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding its relationship with Taiwan. However, President Joe Biden appears to have shifted this policy by repeatedly asserting the U.S.’s commitment to defending Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression. The foundation of U.S.-Taiwan relations is established in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which does not mandate direct intervention by the U.S. Nevertheless, failing to support Taiwan in a time of crisis could jeopardize America’s dominant position in Asia. Furthermore, Taiwan plays a vital role as a global manufacturing hub for semiconductors, making it indispensable globally. While the extent of the United States’ commitment to defend Taiwan remains unclear, it is evident that the U.S. recognizes Taiwan’s geopolitical and economic significance on the international stage.
The upcoming general election in Taiwan in January will serve as a crucial barometer for assessing regional Chinese ambitions. The next president of Taiwan will bear the significant responsibility of guiding the nation through the challenges leading up to the 2027 deadline. According to current polls, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is in the lead, and their nominated candidate, William Lai, who has previously identified as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence,” holds a more assertive stance regarding China. The outcome of this election will have a profound impact on the tension and dynamics of cross-strait relations, as well as the broader East Asian region. As Western countries concentrate their attention on Europe and the Middle East, Taiwan still faces a looming risk of military conflict. While Taiwan continues to make progress with its military reform efforts, the rest of the world should remain vigilant and closely monitor the developments in this critical hot spot.
